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Ebola deaths might rise to 1.4 million until January 2015

Specialists are arguing about the way Ebola virus can be spread out and its possible mutation

Newsroom October 15 09:41

It seems that the Ebola virus threat for Europe is not a distant possibility, as the report sent by the European Union to Greek health services showed: the number of cases in Africa is estimated to range between 550,000 and 1.4 million by January 2015, according to American Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Since the specialists now talk about a massive epidemic, the most ominous scenarios concern many deaths while the standard of living in communities throughout the African continent will decline. Economy, stability and security are the main areas that will be mostly affected. The recent resolution 2117 adopted by UN Security Council assesses the current crisis of Ebola virus as a “threat to international peace and security”.

Europe has also started to take actions in order to prevent the spread of the virus and consider measures of handling any new cases. The document sent to Greek authorities stresses that the situation is far from stable, and it is likely to get worse. In order to handle the worst case scenarios, international community might need to commit to even a common security and defense policy.

European Union plans to establish a European coordinating body specifically for air transportations between European capitals and areas in West Africa which are considered to be under Ebola virus threat. This project may involve civilian and military aircrafts, which will be sent either on schedule or upon request for urgent transportation of personnel and goods. It is emphasized, though, that the European Commission’s Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection (ECHO) marks the collective response of EU in this crisis, whereas resorting to military means is considered to be the last option.

Within a few days the citizens of west countries, who watched the Ebola virus spreading in Africa, realized that the risk is closer to them than they thought so. From the death of American Thomas Duncan, who was the first person diagnosed with the virus in the USA, and the first European case, Spanish nurse Teresa Romero Ramos, to suspected Ebola cases in Cyprus, Italy and FYROM.

In the mealtime, specialists are arguing about the way Ebola virus can be spread out and its possible mutation. On the one hand, scientists of the World Health Organization (WHO) argue that if a new strain results from the Ebola mutation, this will not be transmitted by air, indicating that the virus is spread only through direct contact with body fluids of the patient. On the other hand, epidemiologists warn that an airborne transmission of Ebola virus is possible.

“It is a fact that the virus is transmitted through saliva, but nobody has conducted any study to examine if the virus can be transmitted by coughing or sneezing” said American epidemiologist Charles Bailey.

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Epidemiologist Philip Russell, former head of the medical research team of the American army, explained to LA Times that the scientific community avoids to provide information, because it does not want to spread the panic among the public and expressed his concerns on the way the virus can be mutated.

Specialists, though, are not worried only about the virus mutation. They are also worried about the fact that the virus is spread very quickly, there is a long incubation period of up to 21 days, it is transmitted very easily and there is no vaccine available yet.

 

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