Just like in business deals, the devil is usually in the details in diplomacy. This time, however, the omens suggest that it is unlikely that the new face-to-face between Mitsotakis and Erdogan on the sidelines of the Vilnius NATO Summit will lead to a new re-start-up of Greek-Turkish relations. On the contrary, Turkey’s new turn towards the West with the lifting of the “veto” on Sweden’s NATO membership, even if it comes with trade-offs, is important for Athens and for Ankara’s stance on the bilateral issues.

According to the schedule, the meeting between the two leaders will take place at around 12:00. As of now, the two foreign ministers, George Gerapetritis and Hakan Fidan, and the two diplomatic advisers Anna Maria Bura and Akif Chagatai Kilits will also participate. Mr. Gerapetritis will have the opportunity to have a face-to-face meeting with Mr. Fidan before or after the leaders’ meeting, while Defence Minister Nikos Dendias will see Yasar Güler from 11:30.

The frequency of Greek-Turkish contacts at this Summit, moreover, shows the processes “in the making”. Elections, after all, are behind in both countries, so Mitsotakis and Erdogan have a clear field ahead in order to attempt a restart. Athens’ line, of course, is that it is not discussing “all the issues”, but within a framework and on the one and only difference, namely the continental shelf and maritime zones.

However, if the meeting goes well, the next step is not a mystery. The “roadmap” for normalisation could include a resumption of the exploratory contacts that have been stuck since February 2022 in the 64th round. A competent diplomatic source told protothema.gr that the exploratory talks could start “immediately” if the political mandate is there. Also on the table are the Confidence Building Measures at the military level.

Of course, the central demand and necessary condition for a Greek-Turkish normalisation are the famous “calm waters” in the Aegean and in the airspace, with Turkey having given, however, signs of little activity in recent months. If the “moratorium” continues, Athens considers it beneficial.

Athens on F-16s

The news, however, that Turkey is destined to get an end-to-end F-16 upgrade, possibly including new aircraft, did not surprise many in Athens. In the government, they believe that the actions taken in recent years and the time “bought” were crucial.

“Four years ago, the neighbouring country would have received 100 F-35s without any restrictions, while today, in order to get the F-16 upgrade, it will be subject to the restrictions set by Congress,” government sources say, as a strong mechanism will be created with conditionality on the part of the US authorities. This was not a given four years ago, they say from the administration.

It is no secret, after all, that Athens’ relations with Congress are at an extremely high level, so any “misstep” by Mr Erdogan will have consequences.