Swiss bank UBS maintains its forecast for Greek GDP growth of 2.5% for 2024, given economic data such as industrial production, auto sales, consumer loans and business confidence that support its optimism about the Greek economy.

As noted, the Consumer Price Index accelerated to 2.7% annually in July, with the core CPI continuing to hover around 3%. Its forecast calls for average inflation at 2.5% this year and 2% in 2025. The primary budget surplus reached €2.9 billion in the second half of 2024 (against a target of €1.2 billion). ECOFIN approved Greece’s updated RRF (Revised Recovery and Resilience Plan).

As UBS analysts point out, growth in the European South in general is better than in the North, and debt dynamics in the periphery are also improving.

For 2025, the house forecasts 3% growth for the Greek economy, one percentage point higher than consensus.