These medications are set to act as catalysts in medicine, society, and even in reducing fuel consumption. The phenomenal success of Ozempic and Mounjaro has sparked a surge of interest among pharmaceutical companies, with projections suggesting revenue exceeding $150 billion by 2030.

By 2030, the global market for weight-loss drugs, particularly GLP-1 treatments like Ozempic, is expected to balloon, reaching an estimated $150 billion. Analysts specializing in the pharmaceutical industry believe this growth reflects the increasing global expenditure on weight loss, rivaling current spending on cancer treatments.

In Greece, by December, the new drug Mounjaro from Pharmaserve-Lilly is set to hit the market. This innovative injectable treatment, available in pre-filled pens with the active ingredient tirzepatide, is designed for adults with Type 2 diabetes, particularly those who are obese or overweight.

Mounjaro will be sold at €253.05 for a pack of four doses, sufficient for one month’s treatment. It will not be covered by state insurance and will be available only with a prescription. However, this is unlikely to dampen the expected high demand, regardless of patients’ underlying medical conditions.

Pills in the Pipeline

As the pharmaceutical industry is highly competitive, the number of GLP-1-based medications is set to multiply by 2030. Currently, there are limited options like Ozempic and Wegovy, but within five years, at least 15 new drugs are expected to enter the market. Many of these will be available in pill or capsule form rather than injections, marking a significant shift in GLP-1 biotechnology. Enthusiasts claim that these “world-changing drugs” are just the beginning.

For billions struggling with excess weight and its associated impacts on quality of life and mental health, the widespread availability of weight-loss medications feels like a dream come true.

For pharmaceutical companies, this represents a new, seemingly limitless revenue stream. Novo Nordisk, the Danish company behind Ozempic and Wegovy, currently leads the market, but it will soon face stiff competition from major American pharmaceutical giants eager to cash in on their own research and development efforts.

Eli Lilly, for instance, the most valuable pharma company by market capitalization, plans to launch three different weight-loss drugs. The fierce criticism faced by Pfizer’s CEO, Albert Bourla, from shareholders like Starboard Value, stems from the company’s delay in entering the GLP-1 market. Unlike its rapid success with the COVID-19 vaccine, Pfizer lacks a “counter-Ozempic” in its product line, jeopardizing Bourla’s position as CEO. Investors argue that Pfizer’s absence in the lucrative weight-loss sector is a significant oversight.

The Ozempic War

Weight-loss medications, beyond their purely medical and biological effects, are at the heart of an intense race among companies looking to strike gold. In this modern-day “gold rush,” akin to the American Wild West of the 19th century, some of the world’s most powerful pharmaceutical companies are leading the charge. They are poised to reshape the landscape not only in tackling obesity but in driving far-reaching changes across medical, economic, and even social spheres. GLP-1 drugs are expected to act as a catalyst for a broad array of significant transformations.

Explosive Market Growth

Currently, the global market for weight-loss medications is valued at $45-47 billion annually. If projections hold true, by 2030 this figure could rise to over $150 billion—a more than 230% increase. Such growth is likely to lead to profound shifts in daily life, habits, behavior, and even the psychology of people worldwide.

Impact on the Food Industry

The food industry, across all sectors, is already growing concerned about the future, as weight-loss drugs often require patients to maintain a balanced, healthy diet. A representative from Walmart, the largest supermarket chain in the U.S., has noted a drop in sales attributed to the rising use of these medications.

The investment bank Jefferies estimates that if each airline passenger weighed 4.5 kg less on average, the fuel savings for airlines would amount to 100 million liters, equivalent to nearly $50 million annually. Moreover, lighter drivers and passengers in vehicles would reduce fuel consumption, and there could be a shift toward smaller, lighter, more fuel-efficient cars. Such changes would trigger a chain reaction, lowering energy demands and costs while also reducing environmental pollution. Given that a significant portion of atmospheric pollution comes from the food industry, particularly from livestock farming and meat processing, a decrease in demand for animal products due to the spread of weight-loss drugs could slow the damage to natural ecosystems.

Economic Impacts

In 2022, BMJ Global Health conducted a comprehensive study across 161 countries to assess the economic impact of excess weight and obesity. The study found that in 2019, the financial burden of overweight or obese citizens was equivalent to 2.19% of the global Gross National Product (GNP). This figure is expected to rise to about 3.3% by 2060 if no significant changes occur. Conversely, if 5% of the overweight and obese population returns to normal weight levels each year, from 2020 to 2060, savings could range from $429 billion to $2.2 trillion.

A Planet on the Scale

By 2035, it is estimated that 39% of adults in Greece will be classified as obese, making the country a negative leader in Europe for childhood obesity. Globally, around 2 in 5 adults are currently either overweight or obese, and by the end of the next decade, this number is expected to reach 4 billion people worldwide.

Weight-related issues, influenced by factors from prevailing aesthetic standards to health conditions, concern most people regardless of gender, age, socioeconomic status, or education level. These issues permeate nearly every aspect of personal and social life. Various studies, especially in the U.S., link body weight to academic performance, showing that obese students tend to underperform. Obese girls, in particular, are more likely to drop out of higher education. In the workplace, obesity is associated with higher rates of sick leave and absences due to health problems, which can foster negative stereotypes and even bullying among colleagues.

Health Systems and Public Health Benefits

Reducing the number of overweight and obese individuals would have immediate benefits for public healthcare systems, as excess weight is linked to numerous health issues, from orthopedic problems to cardiovascular and mental health conditions. Fewer overweight patients would ease the burden on hospitals, lowering costs and reducing the strain on healthcare professionals. This shift would enhance the efficiency and sustainability of national health services, improving overall public health outcomes.

Miracle Drug

Tirzepatide, found in Eli Lilly’s medication, has shown proven effects against sleep apnea. Experimental trials indicate that GLP-1 drugs help with chronic kidney disease in diabetics and may even slow the progression of Alzheimer’s disease. Additionally, there is evidence suggesting that treatment with these drugs may reduce dependency on substances like alcohol, cannabis, and even harder drugs.

From a medical standpoint, it is noteworthy that GLP-1 drugs contribute to reducing fatal heart diseases.

A scientific study published in November 2023 in The New England Journal of Medicine confirmed that semaglutide (the active ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy) significantly reduces the risk of severe cardiovascular diseases in diabetic patients. However, its effectiveness in preventing heart disease in overweight or obese individuals without diabetes has not been proven. This study involved 17,604 participants, with about half receiving semaglutide and the rest a placebo. The preventative effect on heart disease was observed in about 20% of those regularly taking the medication under medical supervision.

Additionally, a different study identified up to 93 million potential beneficiaries of semaglutide-based medications. Researchers suggest that if all these individuals use Wegovy, approximately 1.5 million cardiac events could be prevented over the next decade.

The Drawbacks

Is everything as rosy in the new world of Ozempic and its chemical counterparts as it seems? Definitely not. On the one hand, the use of GLP-1 drugs is not yet widespread enough among patients or long enough in duration to draw fully reliable conclusions—let alone predictions about the broader future impacts of combating obesity.

On the other hand, the issue of excess weight and its interdependence with other health problems is inherently complex, multifactorial, and constantly evolving. Some analysts express skepticism about whether the widespread use of weight-loss drugs is directly linked to positive changes in public health and the economy, especially in the long term.

Among other concerns, there is the risk of “moral hazard,” where individuals may expose themselves to greater risks, believing a chemical substance can reverse any damage done to their bodies. In the case of weight-loss drugs, this translates to adopting unhealthy lifestyles, including poor eating habits, binge eating, and avoiding physical exercise, under the pretext of relying on Ozempic.

However, effective and safe obesity treatment requires consistent medical supervision. Alongside medication, patients are typically advised to make significant lifestyle changes, including dietary modifications and incorporating exercise into their daily routines. Otherwise, while the weight loss achieved through GLP-1 drugs can be remarkable (up to 15% of body weight in 16 months), this does not automatically translate into improvements in other body systems, such as muscular, cardiovascular, or skeletal health. Though GLP-1 drugs are considered revolutionary in pharmacology, their benefits are not absolute.

Furthermore, there is no guarantee that patients will not regain weight after stopping treatment. In fact, maintaining reduced weight may require lifelong use of the medication, a fact often clarified by both physicians and pharmaceutical companies. For instance, Mounjaro has exactly this characteristic.

The Black Market

Semaglutide, the active ingredient in Ozempic, is scientifically classified as an “agonist” of GLP-1 peptide receptors, mimicking its effects. GLP-1 is a hormone produced in the gut that increases insulin production after eating, playing a crucial role in controlling blood glucose levels. The result perceived by the patient is a feeling of fullness, reducing the desire for additional food. As the body seeks to maintain itself, it turns to its fat stores for the needed energy. This, in simplified terms, is how weight-loss drugs work. With rapid advancements and improvements in these medications, newer versions are expected to deliver even more impressive weight-loss results in the future.

Nevertheless, alongside the official, legal, and controlled scientific research and public distribution, GLP-1 drugs are also circulating illegally. Fake versions of Ozempic and Wegovy are being widely distributed, ending up in the hands of individuals desperate to lose weight quickly, risking their lives by purchasing counterfeit drugs on the black market.

Recently, the CEO of Novo Nordisk, Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen, revealed to American media that “at least 10 people in the U.S. have died, and about 100 required hospitalization after using counterfeit semaglutide products. These individuals believed they had access to a safe product, thinking they were taking the actual semaglutide. However, that cannot be the case because there is only one semaglutide, produced by our company, Novo Nordisk. And we do not sell it to anyone else.”

Nonetheless, nothing seems capable of halting the spread, whether controlled or uncontrolled, of the new generation of weight-loss drugs. Semaglutide, the market’s “holy grail,” will eventually lose its exclusivity held by Novo Nordisk. Starting in 2026, the restrictions on copying and using the substance by other pharmaceutical companies will be lifted in Brazil, India, and China. In China, a country with a population of 1.4 billion, there are already eight different Ozempic-like products on the market. This development likely indicates the imminent future of chemically assisted weight loss.