“The tyrant Bashar al-Assad is gone. We declare Damascus free from the tyrant Bashar al Assad.” With this simple statement, the jihadists confirmed that Bashar al-Assad is now a thing of the past for Syria. Damascus woke up today with jihadist forces having seized the Presidential palace and all state buildings and moving rather undisturbed through the streets of the country’s capital; where tanks have been abandoned by the Syrian army.

Gunfire can be heard in the streets and celebrations – with smoke and fireworks – have erupted by the islamists and opponents of the Assad regime in Damascus, Homs and other major cities. Shortly after the Syrian army headquarters briefed the country’s officers, state television announced that “the Assad regime has fallen,” according to the Iranian news agency.

And as the country’s prime minister, Ghazi al-Jalali, said in a televised address that “the government is ready to work with whichever leadership the people choose” and called on citizens to protect public facilities, a thriller is underway over the whereabouts of the ousted president, Bashar al-Assad. Jihadists say an operation to locate him is underway as information about his whereabouts is confused. Some say he has not left the country, others say he has fled, and rumours are rife that he was on board a plane that was shot down in the early hours of the morning. The aircraft in question was a Russian-built Syrian Air Force passenger plane that took off from Damascus International Airport and disappeared from radar in the Ram al-Anz area.

Al-Jolani at the “helm” of Syria?

All eyes are now on the transition of power, with the remaining officials “reaching out” to the opposition and Jordan stressing, via a message from its government, “the importance of security, stability and unity in Syria” and calling on “our northern neighbours to regain the effectiveness of their institutions”. Analysts expect the leader of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), the main group leading the Islamic forces, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, to make his ceremonial entry into the Syrian capital today to take over the country’s government.

Earlier yesterday, the jihadist al-Jolani, trying to rebrand himself as a more moderate, appeared on CNN using his real name – Ahmed al-Saraa – while addressing a message. “To all military forces in Damascus city, they are strictly forbidden to approach public institutions, which will remain under the former prime minister’s supervision until they are officially handed over, and are also forbidden to fire bullets in the air,” Ahmed al-Saraa, also known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, wrote in his telegram.

Early this morning, Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali said the government is ready “to work with whatever leadership the people choose,” in a recorded message.

“We are ready to work with whatever leadership the people choose, offering all possible support to ensure a smooth and systematic transition of government functions while maintaining state facilities,” he said.

Al-Jalali called on Syrians to protect public facilities, saying they belong to all citizens. “I am here in my home, I did not leave and I do not intend to leave it except in a peaceful way to ensure the continuation of the operation of public institutions, state facilities and to convey security and protection for all citizens. We extend our hands to every Syrian citizen who is concerned about safeguarding the assets of this nation… I urge all citizens not to harm any public property because, after all, it belongs to them.”

Winners, losers and the day ahead

The image of Russian diplomatic chief Sergei Lavrov yesterday during his meeting with his Turkish counterpart, Hakan Fidan, and Iranian Foreign Minister A. Araxi was typical. Rather embarrassed and irritated, he seemed unable to grasp the way in which one of Russia’s, as well as Iran’s, main allies in the Middle East was being lost – as Erdogan had earlier predicted.

Russia is exhausted by the war in Ukraine, and sending troops into Syria to support Assad would look like suicide. After all, the mercenary organization Wagner which rescued the Bashar al-Assad regime from over a decade of civil war is busy in Ukraine. Russia had no choice but to withdraw forces and weaponry – such as the valuable S-400 missiles it had deployed in Syria, which were recorded leaving yesterday in an unknown direction.

Iran is in a similar situation. Hamas and especially Hezbollah – which it supports logistically – have been almost dismantled by the war with Israel. Hezbollah was the main deterrent against ISIS in the Syrian civil war and a strong supporter of Assad in the region.

With Donald Trump expressing in a tweet the stance the US has on Syria (“don’t get involved”), Israel’s stance is a puzzle. The IDF is already reportedly moving to secure Golan Heights territory from the Syrian side as well, and the Netanyahu government seemed caught between two equally bad options. On the one hand, the Assad regime, “traditionally” hostile to Israel, and on the other, the Islamists who will take power. So for now it is keeping a discreet eye on developments.

With Turkey supporting in all official or unofficial ways the jihadists who were advancing rapidly towards Damascus as it is interested in installing a government of influence that will allow it to find another outlet to the Mediterranean and increase its sphere of influence in the Middle East, Bashar al-Assad understood that he was on his own.

The Syrian army would have to fight alone. But how did a well-armed army of 200,000 men get defeated “hands down” by some 10,000 rebels who entered Damascus on up to…motorbikes?

There was no money in Damascus to pay the troops and people were exhausted, contributing to the Syrian army “collapsing” in the face of the incoming rebels, Syria expert and director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, Joshua Landis, explains to Al Jazeera.

“There had been no peace dividend and no one could rebuild their lives. Life looked so bleak under this regime going forward,” he said, recalling that the Assad government was under various sanctions and that the US controlled most of Syria’s oil and gas.

“And then, of course, Israel’s extraordinary offensive that hit Hezbollah, crippled Iran and really degraded the Syrian military with about three strikes every week on the Syrian army, destroying military factories and Iranian militias.”

Landis explains that Assad was weakened and left without allies, while the jihadists regrouped and managed to adapt and now are trying change their identity. The question now, however, is how they will behave from now on and whether Syria will see a historic orderly transition of power, or whether Damascus will turn into what Baghdad became after the fall of the Hussein regime. A chaos…