The European Union is set to propose increased investment in defense to U.S. President Donald Trump, in a bid to prevent the escalation of a trade war, according to Stefan Cezzourne, the European Commission’s Vice President for Industrial Strategy.

“We cannot face the possibility of a trade war while simultaneously building a stronger European defense,” Cezzourne stated in an interview with France Inter.

He explained that the EU’s approach to defense includes “decoupling” its capabilities from U.S. reliance and establishing European security guarantees to complement NATO. However, he emphasized that these goals are incompatible with a trade war, which would impose significant financial burdens on member states. “National budgets cannot sustain both the rising costs of a defense budget—targeted at 3% of GDP—and the economic fallout of a trade war,” he added.

Cezzourne also highlighted the strategic challenge posed by tensions on the EU’s eastern front, particularly in the context of aid to Ukraine. “We cannot organize an effective defense strategy in the East while grappling with the high costs of a trade war at the same time,” he said.

The EU’s Trade Concerns

On the possibility of a trade war, Cezzourne noted that Europe benefits significantly from its trade balance with the U.S. “The trade balance with the U.S. is very favorable for Europeans,” he remarked, cautioning against retaliatory tariffs. “Europeans would bear the brunt of such measures. For example, European companies heavily rely on U.S. products, like parts from Boeing.”

He outlined two potential strategies: an offensive one, involving retaliatory tariffs, and a defensive approach, such as diversifying global markets. “One defensive strategy could involve shifting our energy imports, like reducing LNG purchases from Azerbaijan in favor of more American imports,” he suggested.

Global Uncertainty Over Trump’s Decisions

Cezzourne expressed concern over the unpredictability of President Trump’s forthcoming executive orders, which are expected to be signed today, January 20. “Neither Canadians, nor Mexicans, nor Europeans—or indeed the rest of the world—know the full extent of these orders,” he said.

Trump reportedly plans to impose 25% tariffs on all products from Mexico and Canada, alongside a 10% increase in tariffs on Chinese goods. The European Union is also said to be a target.

Cezzourne concluded by warning of the global implications of these policies, urging a measured and cooperative approach to avoid economic harm while maintaining focus on European defense priorities.