-Greetings! Before we get to today’s seismic bulletin, let’s start with Tempi and specifically with the proposal for a Preliminary Investigation that our leader, Nikos Androulakis, is expected to submit to Parliament today (probably). Well, I hear that the government will accept it. As is known, the case concerns the then Deputy Minister of State to the Prime Minister, Christos Triantopoulos, and PASOK will have to prove that he gave the order for the infamous landfill project—even though he was actually responsible for another issue, namely the aid to the injured and their families. “We will wait to see PASOK’s indictment today, we will probably accept the Preliminary Investigation, and we will expect them to present evidence of involvement, order, and guilt in Parliament,” my source from the M.M. told me. So, let’s see what we’ll see…

Mitsotakis-Macron

Before I forget, I have a piece of information I’ve been sitting on for days, and I don’t know if K.M. has already had a tough first conversation with Macron or not yet. So, we really didn’t like Macron’s intention to supply Turkey with Meteor missiles. In fact, Dendias believes this move shifts the balance of power in the Aegean. Regardless of the fact that Mitsotakis wasn’t thrilled with Dendias’ move to summon the French Ambassador in protest, he (K.M.) plans to lodge a strong complaint with Macron, telling him something along the lines of: “We gave you so many weapons and billions of euros as a country—you can’t be handing over Meteor missiles to Turkey.” Could this even lead to the cancellation of the last frigate order? I don’t know…

Defense Spending

Meanwhile, Mitsotakis’ proposal on European defense, according to Ursula von der Leyen and António Costa’s statements, has been heard. The Commission President has expressed readiness to explore ways for greater fiscal flexibility to increase defense spending. The Greek Prime Minister’s proposal seems to be gaining ground because it suggests boosting defense spending in a more cost-effective way—so that funds from member states’ budgets, which would otherwise be used to reach the 3% minimum threshold, can instead be allocated to other social expenditures.

Santorini and the Scenarios

Now, let’s move on to earthquakes. At the major Interministerial Meeting organized yesterday by Kikilias at Civil Protection, I hear that all possibilities were discussed—even the worst-case scenario. While they don’t think they’ll need to use the worst-case scenario manual, a well-organized state must be prepared for everything. I’m told this includes a potential major earthquake that could cause building collapses, landslides, and possibly people being trapped in buildings. On this front, coordination plans between ground and aerial forces were updated, and special measures will be taken to keep road networks as clear as possible. Soon, TEE (the Technical Chamber of Greece) will conduct on-site inspections of public buildings in Santorini to assess earthquake resistance. Today, at the meeting with Mitsotakis at Civil Protection, they will obviously have to discuss measures beyond Friday—because the seismic activity won’t have subsided by then.

Freddy and His Friend Pheidias

We’ve said it many times about the political personnel heading to Brussels, but what Freddy Beleri did is beyond imagination. The man took the initiative to propose the eccentric YouTuber Pheidias—who has basically become Elon Musk’s pet project—as vice-chair of the Committee on the Protection of Democracy, in a blatant attempt to shake up Europe. And the kicker? Beleri acted alone. He shaped the EPP’s position all by himself, without informing ND’s parliamentary coordinator Eliza Vozemberg—who was preparing to head to Stockholm. She ended up finding out from the Cypriots in DISY. Word is that Freddy and Pheidias have become very good friends, and they even did a podcast together last fall. Well, Kassematkis pulled similar stunts and look where he ended up! Maximos Mansion only found out after SYRIZA picked up the story from Tsiodras—who immediately reported it—but by then, the damage was done.

Freddy was yet another brilliant choice, and mark my words, he won’t be the only one in the European Parliament to turn heads…

The Environmental Crime at Sarakiniko

A few words about the almost (yet another) environmental disaster on Milos, where an unscrupulous hotelier nearly built a 3,000-square-meter complex in the middle of Sarakiniko. This is one of Greece’s most globally famous (thanks to social media, especially Instagram) landscapes of unique natural beauty. Unfortunately, no local or national authority noticed—or at least, no one reacted—until photos and videos of Sarakiniko (published by protothema.gr) sparked outrage from around the world. But here’s the real scandal: as we speak, there is no law in place to protect this uniquely beautiful landscape—or, I imagine, many other rare natural sites across the country. And one cold winter, we’ll wake up to find them built over. The case of Sarakiniko in Milos sets a precedent: Urban planning offices cannot be under municipal control, and environmental protection cannot be left to the roll of the dice (or daily bribes). Municipalities serve local interests, and they depend on—or, at the very least, have friendly (sometimes financial) ties with—those same interests. This madness with municipalities and urban planning offices has to stop. And of course, the Council of State needs to open its eyes—so that what’s left can still be saved.

Discussions Between GEK TERNA and Motor Oil About HERON

Moving on to market news, all eyes are on Piraeus Bank and Ethniki Asfalistiki— a deal we’ll discuss later. But first, we start with another major deal brewing in the energy sector. Rumors—UNCONFIRMED RUMORS—circulating in the market suggest that GEK TERNA and Motor Oil are in talks regarding HERON. According to industry chatter, the two companies have been negotiating for months, but recently, discussions have gained significant traction. The speculation is that HERON will merge with Motor Oil’s NRG.

Piraeus Bank: The Die Is Cast – Binding Offer in the Works

Regarding Piraeus Bank and the acquisition of Ethniki Asfalistiki from CVC, we’re now in the final countdown. The die is cast, and Piraeus Bank is working at a feverish pace to prepare the binding offer. The fact that they’re moving forward with this means they’ve agreed on the price, so it’s now just a matter of time.

“When Will the Deal Close?”

That was also the buzz in the insurance sector at yesterday’s New Year’s cake-cutting event of the Hellenic Association of Insurance Companies (HAIC) at the old Stock Exchange on Pesmazoglou Street. The hot topic of conversation among all insurance executives was, “When will the deal close?” Ethniki Asfalistiki’s CEO, D. Mazarakis, was the man of the hour—along with HAIC President A. Sarrigeorgiou—as everyone made a point to speak with him. Beyond the Piraeus Bank-Ethniki Asfalistiki deal, the second hottest topic was insurance premiums and how companies have backtracked following government intervention. What else caught our eye? N. Makropoulos of Europa. Cheerful, talkative, clearly enjoying himself, and among the last to leave—as if a weight had been lifted off his shoulders…

On the Doorstep of the FTSE 25

From the old Stock Exchange, we move to the actual Stock Exchange, where yesterday, AKTOR’s CEO A. Exarchou rang the opening bell for the trading session and the listing of new shares from the company’s €200 million capital increase. This is another step forward in the construction group’s growth and expansion into new business areas, recently announced. With these new shares, AKTOR’s market capitalization surpassed €1 billion yesterday, paving the way for its inclusion in the FTSE 25 index once TERNA Energy is delisted. The key takeaway? The increase in market capitalization and potential entry into the FTSE 25 could attract new institutional investors to AKTOR.

Expanding Criteria for Vulnerable Borrowers

Today at noon, Finance Minister K. Hatzidakis will hold a press conference on private debt. Given the sensitive timing, private debt has triggered alarms in the banking sector, as it ties into the issue of loans denominated in Swiss francs. However, sources suggest that Hatzidakis will announce an expansion of the criteria for vulnerable borrowers, broadening the scope to include more people.

Trade Estates Placement Completed (At a Major Discount)

The management of Fourlis had long announced its intention to reduce its stake in the affiliated real estate investment company, Trade Estates, so that it could consolidate it as an investment holding. Various options were explored, but ultimately, the placement—considered the most likely scenario—took place yesterday, ahead of the originally expected timeframe of late 2024.

As a result, 16% of Trade Estates changed hands through the Athens Stock Exchange just an hour before yesterday’s market close, between 16:10 and 16:51. A total of 34 transaction blocks, amounting to 19.279 million shares valued at €28.9 million, were exchanged. The transactions were executed at €1.50 per share, representing a 10% discount compared to the stock’s closing price of €1.674. But the real kicker? The sale was made at a steep 23% discount compared to the IPO price of €1.92 back in November 2023. Fourlis saw a 2.86% increase, closing at €4.13, just shy of a 10-month high. In the coming weeks, investors are expected to shift their focus to the Group’s 2024 financial results and any potential impact from the cyberattack that hit Fourlis at the end of last year.

Why the Board of Directors of e-EFKA Real Estate Company Was Ousted

A storm has been brewing around e-EFKA Real Estate Company, whose Board of Directors either resigned or, as insiders say, was axed. What’s not widely known is that just a few days ago, the Ministry of Labor officially rejected the company’s 2025 budget (Ref. No. 895/15-01-2025). The same sources claim that in its two years of operation, this EFKA subsidiary remained… immobile. In other words, while all executives and consultants were getting paid, asset management efforts yielded next to nothing. The first red flag from the Ministry of Labor came with the rejection of an €800,000 approval request for the company’s management fees related to EFKA’s real estate portfolio. The official document stated:
“The aforementioned amount has not been appropriately accounted for as an expense in e-EFKA’s 2025 Budget submitted for approval. Furthermore, as indicated by the relevant correspondence, the process for signing the programmatic agreement—which determines the company’s management fee under Article 12, Paragraph 6 of Law 4892/2022—has not yet been completed.” It concluded that:
“Therefore, our service cannot approve the submitted 2025 budget for the company. It must be resubmitted after revision, taking into account the current circumstances.” It was no coincidence that in December 2024, EFKA’s parent organization, through its administrator, announced that efforts to utilize certain landmark properties would be handled exclusively by EFKA’s in-house services and staff—bypassing the real estate subsidiary altogether.

Koutsolioutsos Won’t Back Down

Today at noon, the general assembly of Folli Follie Group, requested by Dimitris Koutsolioutsos and scheduled by the company’s Board of Directors, is set to take place. Koutsolioutsos, sentenced to 17 years in prison for the Folli Follie case, is serving his sentence under house arrest. However, he remains a shareholder and, through his lawyers, has called for an extraordinary general meeting, putting forward about twenty topics for discussion. Once again, he is challenging the legitimacy of the 2022 restructuring agreement, which was validated by the courts, as well as the additional share allocation to bondholders. He is also demanding an emergency financial and management audit. These are the same claims he has repeatedly raised in previous general meetings—before his conviction—without any success. The company, meanwhile, states that the Board is fully prepared to counter every single argument Koutsolioutsos presents.

A Cautious Rebound, with Lots of Block Trades

Monday’s major drop (-2.7%) came with a trading volume of €185.2 million, but only €8.2 million of that was in block trades. Yesterday, the General Index recovered a third of those losses, climbing to 1,520.82 points (+0.88%), with a total trading volume of €172.09 million—€28.9 million of which involved Trade Estates. In total, €51.75 million worth of stocks changed hands through block trades yesterday, meaning that the net turnover behind this market rebound was limited to around €120 million. Piraeus Bank, currently at the center of business news, justifiably bounced back +2.58% to €4.26. Alpha Bank followed with a +1% rise to €1.71, while National Bank (+0.64% to €8.2) and Eurobank (+0.3% to €2.32) showed more hesitation. Coca-Cola remained the backbone of the market once again (+1.18% to €34.4), but this time, it had company:

• Jumbo (+2.19% to €26.1)
• OPAP (+1.47% to €16.62)
• Athens International Airport (+1.89% to €8.5)
• PPC (+1.01% to €12.99)
• HelleniQ Energy (+1.15% to €7.48)
• ADMIE closed with a +2.49% gain at €2.68.

Big Moves in Cryptocurrencies

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s exchange rate stood at $99,331. The leading cryptocurrency’s price has been bouncing around like a trampoline, while Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds) have amassed $125 billion in investments. Just in January alone, $4.5 billion flowed into Bitcoin ETFs. What happened last Friday (ahead of Trump’s tariff announcement) with the second most popular cryptocurrency, Ethereum, is a prime example of the madness in this market. It was Friday at 1:30 p.m. when Ethereum started plunging, right after Trump declared that he would not delay tariffs. By Sunday noon, Ethereum had lost 37% of its value from its peak. Then, on Monday afternoon, Eric Trump—businessman, activist, former reality TV host, and second son of President Trump—posted on social media: “Now is a great time to add ETH.” Within hours, Ethereum had surged 37% from its low. In plain terms: over the span of just four days, we witnessed the largest 24-hour crypto liquidation event—totaling $10 billion—and wild swings of ±37% in the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency.

• Only a handful of investors can survive in markets like these.