The rapid shifts in transatlantic relations and the undermining of Western unity on Ukraine create a new geopolitical landscape that Athens must navigate. Greece is focused on maintaining a delicate balance between the U.S. and Europe while addressing Turkey’s push for a greater regional role in Europe, the Middle East, and the Eastern Mediterranean.

One major concern for Greece is the emergence of an alternative security framework, often referred to as the “Coalition of the Willing.” This group includes France and Germany from the EU, along with Canada, Norway, and Turkey, which, despite being a NATO member, is not part of the EU. Ankara’s potential influence in this bloc raises alarms in Athens, particularly regarding its role in European defense.

The Defense Industry Dilemma

Greece is particularly wary of the possibility that part of the €800 billion European rearmament fund could flow into Turkey’s defense sector. Already, Turkey has strengthened its defense industry ties with Italy through a partnership between Leonardo and Baykar, which recently acquired Piaggio Aerospace.

This partnership aims to tap into the European drone market, expected to reach €100 billion over the next decade. Athens and Nicosia fear that opposing such projects could lead to accusations of obstructing European defense cooperation.

Trump and Greece-Turkey Relations

Greece welcomed the initial diplomatic contacts with the new Trump administration, especially the recent meeting between Greek FM Giorgos Gerapetritis and U.S. Senator Marco Rubio. These talks reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to strong bilateral relations and energy projects involving Greece.

However, concerns persist as Rubio, one of the few experienced policymakers in the Trump administration, does not appear to have primary influence over U.S. foreign policy. Instead, foreign affairs are shaped by Trump’s personal circle and a group of appointed special envoys.

Greek Strategy: Preventing Crises

Athens recognizes that in the event of a regional crisis, the EU is unlikely to intervene decisively. Traditionally, only Washington had the influence to prevent serious escalations.

To avoid creating an issue that would force the new U.S. administration to step in, Greece has opted for a cautious approach. This likely explains the decision to pause the Crete-Cyprus electrical interconnection project, including the suspension of payments by ADMIE to the French firm Nexans and the withdrawal of Italian research vessels from Crete.

Similarly, projects such as marine parks in the Aegean and maritime spatial planning remain on hold, partly due to Turkish objections.

Turkish Objections and “Technical Adjustments”

The EU-backed Crete-Cyprus power link has strong support from Israel and the U.S., but Athens faces pressure to accommodate Turkish “technical concerns.” These adjustments could include:

• Informing Turkish authorities about research activities
• Issuing a Turkish NAVTEX in areas under Greek jurisdiction

Such concessions could legitimize the Turkey-Libya maritime deal, which directly overlaps with Greece’s EEZ agreement with Egypt.

The Middle East Factor

Beyond the Eastern Mediterranean, Greece is closely monitoring Turkey’s ambitions in the Middle East, particularly its rivalry with Israel.

The new Trump administration has demonstrated unwavering support for Israel, a key factor in Athens’ regional strategy. Strengthening ties with Israel could prove to be Greece’s most effective diplomatic tool in shaping relations with Washington.

With Turkey and Israel competing for influence in Syria, this regional power struggle may significantly impact Greek foreign policy in the coming years.