Hello there. I don’t know if Mitsotakis got off easy back in 2018 with the rolling suitcases of the Novartis scandal—”the scandal of the century,” as Mimi Papagelopoulos used to say (where has that soul disappeared to?). I don’t know how he managed to scrape by during the pandemic, when, out of nowhere and for no particular reason, public squares were suddenly packed with young people chanting that well-known slogan against him. But now, he’s tangled up with the conspiracy-loving “Christian Taliban” of the internet, who have joined forces with the “Famelos-zoiitses,” and he doesn’t know which way to turn. Things are going from bad to worse, because obviously even the most ideologically extreme politicians with a shred of experience can understand that this man’s death has nothing to do with the Tempi train disaster. And in any case, you don’t go around linking a government to a murder—unless I’m mistaken, the last time that happened was during the junta. Because, as the saying goes, lies have short legs.

VDL and Defense Spending

Now, onto serious matters. A source familiar with yesterday’s discussions at the EPP told me that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (VDL) made some rather bold statements regarding Europe’s common defense procurement. She reportedly laid out what was discussed in Paris, emphasizing that Europeans cannot accept a solution for Ukraine without Ukraine itself and that they won’t agree to security guarantees without U.S. support. On defense spending, she said there would be flexibility for national budgets, that joint funding for European defense projects (as Mitsotakis and Tusk have proposed) would be considered, and that unused loans from the Recovery Fund could also be leveraged. In other words, VDL essentially outlined that in the coming months, European leaders will be putting a hefty package—worth several tens of billions—on the table.

The Jabs at Macron and the Summit

Today, according to schedule, K.M. (Kyriakos Mitsotakis) will be in Thessaloniki while the informal leaders’ summit that Macron is organizing in Paris takes place. So, the Prime Minister will stick to his plans in Thessaloniki and join the summit via teleconference. It seems, however, that Mitsotakis’ jab at Emmanuel Macron during the EPP leaders’ video conference yesterday—about “selective leader discussion formats,” especially when they don’t lead to a common stance—hit home. It’s clear that the French initiative has ruffled feathers in Athens (and not just there), giving the impression of a two-speed European Union. Generally speaking, as I’ve come to understand, relations between Mitsotakis and Macron aren’t exactly at their best right now, despite their recent meeting in Paris. But given the current circumstances, we can’t afford divisions.

Plus… a Reshuffle

Every day, I like to drop a little tidbit to get the day going with some good gossip. Yesterday, I heard that Papaspirou might take over the Ministry of Migration Policy, replacing Panagiotopoulos—though the real jackpot position is at the Ministry of Shipping, which is now vacant, as Stylianides is voluntarily stepping down. But don’t take this as gospel, okay?

Just to Avoid Confusion

Holterman visits Greece once a month during the winter, so his arrival doesn’t mean anything special. Also, the SSM (Single Supervisory Mechanism) has changed the procedures for the “fit & proper” banking suitability assessments, making them lengthier—they now take around six months. Holterman’s intentions are pretty clear from his request to exceed the 10% ownership limit in Alpha Bank—something that will happen sooner or later.

Agreement Closes by Late March

The collaboration between Piraeus Bank and CVC regarding Ethniki Asfalistiki (National Insurance) is moving along smoothly. If things continue this way, we should expect official announcements by late March. Both parties have agreed that Dimitris Mazarakis will continue as CEO of Ethniki Asfalistiki as the company enters its new phase.

The “Holy” Digital Bank: Angelos Filippidis’ New Project

Two years ago, the company Financial Innovation Holding S.A. was founded, with major shareholders including the Greek Orthodox Church and NGOs affiliated with it. The goal of FIH—now approaching realization—is to establish a digital bank that will accept deposits from Greeks (including the diaspora), finance small and medium-sized businesses, and utilize FinTech capabilities to offer low-cost services and flexible financial products. The bank’s initial target market is the 15 million Greeks across Greece, the U.S., Cyprus, Germany, the U.K., and Canada. The next step? Expanding to Orthodox Greeks worldwide, regardless of origin or nationality. The new bank intends to apply for an operating license within the European Union, and according to sources, its entry into the Greek banking sector isn’t far off. Leading this “holy” endeavor in its preparatory phase is a familiar face in the market: former Postal Savings Bank president Angelos Filippidis. Now that he has definitively and irrevocably put his past legal troubles behind him, it looks like he’s embarking on a fresh new venture.

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The Bank of Cyprus Recipe and the Skeptical Analysts

AXIA was impressed by the strong profitability and high dividend, issuing a “buy” recommendation with a target price of €6.20. Euroxx stated it was positively surprised by the increase in dividend distribution to 50-70% and recommends “overweight” with a target price of €6.80. The discussion revolves around the Bank of Cyprus and its results, which even analysts in yesterday’s conference call found hard to believe, repeatedly and persistently asking: “Are you sure you will manage to offset the loss of interest income? Might you be using part of your capital to distribute such high dividends?” The bank’s executives responded that in a population of 1,230,000, the Bank is the market leader, serving three-quarters of the population. It holds a 43% market share in loans and 37.2% in deposits and is a key player in the insurance market. While interest income is declining due to rates, it still covers 70% of operating costs. At the same time, the bank is strengthening its credit expansion through international operations, with its international loan portfolio increasing by approximately 50% to €1.5 billion.

Drilling Rigs and Meetings

Getting any information from government officials regarding the meetings and discussions that took place in Cairo over the past few days is like pulling teeth. However, the trip to the Egyptian capital—where the major energy exhibition Egyptes 2025 was held—was not without its mishaps. Environment Minister Theodoros Skylakakis missed his flight to Cairo, consequently missing his scheduled meeting with Chevron President Clay Neff. However, as we understand, the meeting did eventually take place—albeit in passing—with the American company reaffirming its strong interest in Greek hydrocarbons, which it had already publicly expressed with a request for the area south of the Peloponnese. And it seems that this interest won’t stop there. As for Exxon Mobil, the American giant continues to keep us in suspense regarding the timing of its first exploratory drilling southwest of Crete, which is not expected before late 2026 or early 2027.

The Tycoons Dreyfus, Savvidis, and the €1.2 Million Expenses (Part 2)

We’re entering the first chapter of the “Thessaloniki Port Authority” saga, as tomorrow marks the official end of the acceptance period for the public offer submitted by Leonids Port, owned by the Louis-Dreyfus family, for up to 21% of OLTH. What happens next? The Dreyfus group has the right to extend the public offer period, but market insiders wonder why they would do so when it has not achieved its goal—unless it’s simply to buy time. So far, they have acquired around 3% of OLTH, while the Savvidis side—making purchases significantly above the €27 per share offered by Leonids Port—has effectively neutralized the bid. Will they improve their offer? It’s a possibility, but they have so far been reluctant. Could they also withdraw empty-handed? That would certainly raise questions about why they appeared so suddenly with such ambitious plans for OLTH. The most likely scenario is a second round of the saga, where the Dreyfus group will reveal its next move. In the meantime, Savvidis has slightly increased his stake, spending about €1.2 million to buy OLTH shares and keep the price above the €27 offered by the Dreyfus group.

Surprise Profits from the Port of Piraeus?

Sticking with ports, as geopolitical developments are moving quickly, it seems the strategic importance of the Port of Piraeus is shifting, regaining its role in global trade flows and supply chains. Yesterday, the administration offices of PPA received a high-level Italian delegation led by the Italian Ambassador to Greece, Paolo Cuculi, along with the Embassy’s First Secretary and the Honorary Consul of Italy in Piraeus, Mr. Renaldi. PPA’s CEO, Su Xudong, presented the ongoing investment plans and—if sources are correct—hinted at impressive profitability, which PPA is set to announce in the coming days.

The “Star” Dividend

That Astir Vouliagmeni has been booming in recent years is well known. In reality, the investment consortium that acquired it has discovered a “cash-printing machine.” So, it comes as no surprise that, according to our sources, at the end of January, an additional dividend distribution of €12,287,550 was approved from the profits of the 2023 fiscal year. This comes on top of the €103.65 million interim dividend approved in July 2023 for the same fiscal period. Additionally, on January 2, 2024, Astir Palace and Apollo Investment Holdco S.A. “jointly approved a partial payment of €8.78 million from the interim dividend to shareholders, offsetting it against the intra-group bond loan with Apollo Investment Holdco S.A.,” which owns 100% of the company. It is worth noting that under the leadership of experienced manager Penny Zaglaridou, Astir Palace recorded the highest turnover in its history in 2023, reaching €295.37 million compared to €218.33 million in 2022—an increase of 35.29%. Pre-tax profits stood at €159.872 million. A major revenue driver was the sale of “golden” plots of land designated for luxury villas on the former “Aphrodite” unit site. The other was the improved performance of both the hotel complex, managed by Four Seasons, and Astir’s restaurants, such as Matsuhisa and Beefbar, which achieved record sales and profits. Astir Marina also followed suit, with its own restaurants and high-end brand stores performing exceptionally well.

The Rally of the Big 4 (of the Athens Stock Exchange)

The banking sector hit the gas pedal yesterday, with the Big 4 reaching new multi-year highs. Eurobank led the charge, hitting €2.5 for the first time since November 16, 2015. National Bank climbed to around €8.65, its highest level since November 27, 2015. Alpha Bank marked its sixth consecutive rise, closing above €1.88, a fresh five-year high, with the next milestone dating back to January 9, 2020. Piraeus Bank broke through the €4.7 barrier, which had remained untouched since April 13, 2021. The cherry on top was Bank of Cyprus, which, after posting strong results, closed at €5.58, peaking at €5.66 during the session.

Selloff and Rebound

The same pattern we saw in the previous trading session played out again yesterday on Athens Avenue. The big winners of recent days (and there are many) rushed at the opening bell to lock in profits by selling heavyweight stocks—mostly banks—creating a climate of broad correction. But once the initial wave of selling subsided by midday, buyers emerged to turn the tables. The banking index initially fell -0.87%, only to finish the session up +1.1%. Following the trend of the day, the General Index opened in the red at -0.68% but closed at its session high of 1,625.4 points, up +0.64%. Transaction value surged to €147.7 million, with €19.67 million in block trades. Coca-Cola (+1.84%) at €39.82 dreams of the war in Ukraine ending, with a market cap of €14.86 billion. Metlen notched its 10th consecutive gain, reaching €37 and securing the seventh spot in market capitalization at €5.2 billion. Europa Holdings dazzled with an +11.55% rise as the March 6 General Assembly approaches, which will mark the entry of heavyweight business figures into its shareholder base.

Europe’s New Defense Strategy and Greek Companies

A stark realization from official sources leads to inevitable conclusions: 63% of the defense systems used by Europe today are produced in the U.S., and 78% come from outside the EU. The old continent has no choice but to support and bolster its defense industry. For Greece, this means accelerating the collaboration between Hellenic Defense Systems and CGS Defence Group for large-caliber ammunition production, revitalizing our shipbuilding industry (with George Prokopiou and Panos Xenokostas already signaling their readiness to Reuters), and ramping up production in Greek industries supplying defense firms with raw materials, such as Viohalco Group companies (ElvalHalcor, Sidenor, etc.). Meanwhile, the now Israeli-owned but Greek-managed Intracom Defence has already announced a major deal with Diehl for the design and development of a new advanced IRIS-T missile communication system.