Hello, an introductory comment: Yesterday, after the end of the gathering for Tempi at Syntagma, the usual-unknown anarchists started breaking and burning again. So, the government should explain to us whether it intends to turn Athens back into a “free-for-all” for a handful of individuals, destroying the country’s image, tourism, and the jobs of thousands of people. The opposition parties should also tell us whether they agree with this situation, but mainly the government, which supposedly, since 2019, has passed a series of laws and regulations to put an end to the chaos, the Molotov rain, etc. Or not?

Parliament – French experts

From yesterday’s discussion, we take away two or three interesting remarks from Mitsotakis and the change in strategy compared to his initial approach to the Tempi case (his television interview on Alpha). K.M. moved away from apologizing about the wooden and brick sleepers, murders, and smuggling, but at the same time, he clearly stated that his government failed to convince society that trains were a priority. He is right on both counts—neither do the “conspiratorial” theories hold for intelligent people, nor was anything drastic done for train safety, because if it had been, we would have known. Proof of this is that now we (as a state) are looking for French experts (or Japanese ones) to undertake the modernization of the trains.

Reshuffle scenarios…

So, do not expect anything drastic for OSE, so since we are a column, we write news and record what happens daily in the centers of power (M.M., ministries, etc.), let’s move on to the favorite political topic of the days, which is the reshuffle. I repeat, what I write is reporting…not an official government gazette, because the official gazette of the new government will be made by K.M., and since there are still a few days left until the reshuffle, not even he knows what he will decide until then, as it is well known that the prime minister at the time crosses out and writes names until the last moment.

Plans on paper

And since I have given you the introduction, let’s move on to the naming process, starting with M.M., where theoretically, at least, ministers come and go. For example, Kyranakis, whom I wrote yesterday is going to Transport as a deputy, my source tells me that indeed he was at Maximos a few days ago, spoke with the prime minister, declared himself ready in his samurai uniform for OSE, but that Mitsotakis has not “locked him in” for the position. On the contrary, I am told Papathanasis is not going to M.M. Theodorikakos also met with K.M., and in fact, on the day of the rally, he shared his opinion on the political landscape as his old advisor from opposition years, but that was it. Now, as for Chatzidakis at Maximos as a coordinator-vice president or even next to Megaro Stathatou, my source did not rule it out. “If he tells me to go there, I will go there,” they say Chatzidakis is saying, and my question is, who will go to the Ministry of Finance? Yesterday, I heard about Kerameos. In any case, there are not many for the Ministry of Finance; it is a “special position,” extremely sensitive, and mainly requires good communication with colleagues and, of course, effectiveness. However, yesterday at the Parliament café, Chatzidakis and Kyranakis were having a good conversation. Could it be that Chatzidakis goes to Infrastructure along with a vice-presidency at M.M. or even as Minister of Finance with Kyranakis as his deputy? Let’s finish with the Infrastructure chair so the concerned contractor can finally relax…

Adonis?

The question is whether Adonis will stay at the Ministry of Health because a good source told me that “Adonis will be in the government, but we don’t know if he will remain at Health.” As you understand, Mitsotakis has laid out all his options, as usual, but I don’t know where it will all end up.

Το Excel bothered them…

Finishing up the cabinet reshuffle talk, just so we have something pleasant to sip our morning coffee to, I hear various ministers and officials leaking and maliciously announcing the “end of Excel,” implying that Skertsos will be moved from the Maximos Mansion. So I ask, seriously now, is Skertsos really their main concern, while they haven’t even noticed that Staikouras hasn’t lifted a finger (well, almost, to be fair…) on the trains since the accident? And since those of us who actually work and don’t just engage in empty talk like most professional politicians know a thing or two about getting things done, I ask: Who will take over Skertsos’ role at the Maximos Mansion? Who will Mitsotakis turn to for insight into what’s happening in his own government? Because there are plenty of so-called “jacks-of-all-trades” there, but what about actual work? Anyway, my personal opinion (everyone has one, so I won’t say the rest of that phrase) is that this government isn’t suffering from Skertsos’ Excel, but from many Excels and from the lack of real people who actually work and deliver.

National Bank requested approval to proceed with Bank of Cyprus

And now we move on to market news, starting with the banks, which are in a state of… boiling. The information comes from a serious and reliable source, which is why I am sharing it—because by their nature, such pieces of information are not easy to cross-check: The management of the National Bank, meaning P. Mylonas, has requested the political leadership’s “green light” to proceed with Bank of Cyprus. Such a deal, given the special status of both National Bank and Bank of Cyprus, cannot move forward without government approval and a political agreement with the leadership of Cyprus. Note that state approval was requested—whether it will be granted or not, we do not know. These negotiations may also explain the recent performance of National Bank’s stock. I remind you that whispers about National Bank and Bank of Cyprus started during a recent teleconference when P. Mylonas was asked and responded that they are looking for opportunities and have the discipline to wait for them to appear—without confirming, but also without ruling it out. In any case, it is still at the stage of very internal processes, and the effort may end before it even begins.

The rejected 2022 proposal and the Slovenians

National Bank’s management has generally been exploring options after recent developments in the sector, and the Bank of Cyprus venture at this stage shows how quickly and unpredictably things can change. I say this because, in August 2022, when Bank of Cyprus was receiving acquisition offers from Lone Star (on 5/5/22 at €1.25 per share, on 25/5/22 at €1.38, and on 8/7/22 at €1.51), it had then turned to National Bank and asked it to step in as a white knight and acquire it. At that time, Lone Star had put €727 million on the table for Bank of Cyprus, but National Bank had rejected what now seems like a cheap deal by today’s standards. Later, in early 2023, National Bank had commissioned Rothschild to find an acquisition target, and the investment bank suggested a Slovenian bank, but the proposal did not generate much enthusiasm.

Why is Paulson selling?

And now we turn to John Paulson, who has recently become a seller of his Greek stock holdings. Paulson, with a personal fortune of $4.7 billion and a father at 68-69 years old with 36-year-old Alina de Almeida, is not selling because he’s facing financial difficulties. After all, just a few days ago, he purchased a 22-story luxury real estate project in Puerto Rico, and the term “portfolio restructuring,” which was mentioned regarding his sales in Greece, is quite vague. The market’s concern is why this major investor has decided to sell now—at a time when banking stocks are recovering. The sales might be justified by the fact that he has been in the Greek market since 2014, that the approximately €800 million he invested in the Athens Stock Exchange at some point evaporated, so now that the trend is upward, he found an opportunity to liquidate. In any case, such large holdings are not sold all at once but gradually, and let’s not forget that he was a hedge fund manager, not an institutional investor. A logical argument, but these sales wouldn’t cause any concern if Paulson weren’t a friend and major donor to Donald Trump, with the media even at one point mentioning him as a potential Treasury Secretary in the Trump administration. So, the market is understandably wondering: Does he know something that we will find out later? With everything happening in the U.S. right now, with billionaires lining up behind Trump, does Paulson have some very advanced information, a kind of “inside scoop”? Obviously, this column has no answer and, like everyone else, is waiting to see if the sales will continue. Some in the market are watching closely to see if, after the banks, it will be EYDAP’s turn, a stock with low trading activity.

Banking stocks are delivering profits

The old saying was that a stock market rally without banks is not possible, and this saying is proving true once again. Eurobank closed above €2.6 yesterday, the highest price since November 16, 2015; a nine-year record for National Bank, which solidified above €9; and a seven-year high (since June 2018) for Alpha Bank, surpassing the psychological €2 threshold. In Alpha Bank’s case, the block of 57 million shares sold by John Paulson, which changed hands at €1.915 per share, was not enough to halt the stock’s upward momentum, despite the discount in the transaction. On the contrary, Jefferies’ target price increase to €3.2—up from €2.7 previously—had a beneficial effect on Alpha Bank. As for the market, Athens Avenue returned to record-breaking territory, as after surpassing 1,625 points last February, the General Index broke the 1,630-point barrier yesterday for the first time in 14 years. The next milestone is the 1,662 points of March 14, 2011. The banking index refreshed its nine-plus-year high (since November 2015), comfortably exceeding 1,500 points. The high-cap index (FTSE 25 / Large Cap) reached 4,000 points, a level last seen in July 2014.

Get well soon

“I’ll just say ‘get well soon.'” That was the… well-wishing comment yesterday from Panagiotis Stamboulidis, head of the strategic contracts unit (PPF) and executive board member of the Hellenic Corporation of Assets and Participations (HCAP), during the Prodexpo North real estate conference in Northern Greece. He was commenting on the developments regarding the utilization of the Kalamaria marina, where, among other objections, the Municipality of Kalamaria has appealed to the Council of State seeking the annulment of the relevant Presidential Decree. “There is a lawsuit, we will wait once again for the green light from the Council of State, and then we will launch a new tender. I remind you that the plan we had proposed for Kalamaria involved mild intervention. Time was wasted in the name of grand… slogans, and I hope we will have a clear framework after the Council of State’s ruling.”

Thessaloniki International Fair: As if we were building a block in Manhattan

The math doesn’t seem to add up for private participation in the redevelopment of the Thessaloniki International Fair, at least as calculated yesterday at the Prodexpo North conference by Dimitris Andriopoulos, CEO of DIMAND. He has stated before and reiterated yesterday that DIMAND is interested in the project. P. Stamboulidis estimated the redevelopment cost at around €370 million, with state participation not exceeding €120 million, the contribution of the Region of Central Macedonia for green spaces at around €20 million, and the rest coming from private participation. “The simple math doesn’t work out, as if we were building a block in… Manhattan,” was Andriopoulos’ remark, who, if nothing else, is known for his sharp comments.

Thessaloniki Metro: 7 million trips in 80 days

The same conference also highlighted the “breath of fresh air” the metro is bringing to the city, beyond, of course, the rise in real estate values around the stations. As Ioannis Papageorgiou, coordinator of the Prime Minister’s office in Thessaloniki, mentioned, in 80 days there have been 7 million trips, a 10% reduction in city center traffic, and 81,000 personalized cards issued. The extension to Kalamaria is expected by the end of the year, serving 350,000 residents, while at the same time, the parking facility at the Nea Elvetia station is being completed, creating 400 new spaces.

Rebellion against mega-yachts and cruise tourism

It’s not the first time we’ve seen mayors with a unique perspective on investments, as was the case recently in Tavros, where a Dutch-backed project was ultimately canceled, and now in Patras, where the city’s mayor, Kostas Peletidis, is opposing investments in the port, speaking of “destruction.” Naturally, all in the name of the people, using the usual slogans about the “logic of profit” and “foreign lenders who don’t even know where Patras is,” as he said in a radio interview a few days ago. We’re talking about massive investments in the northern port of the Patras Port Authority, including infrastructure for cruise development and a marina for large leisure boats (Mega Yachts) that could economically and architecturally transform the city and finally open the port to its citizens. Contrary to claims that these interventions would lead to the gradual “privatization” of the coastal area, restricting public access, the opposite is true. With the creation of the Patradise Mega Yacht Marina, the port will open up to residents and visitors, as the ISPS (International Ship and Port Facility Security) regulation of the International Maritime Organization, which prohibits uncontrolled public access, will no longer apply to that section. Not to mention the revenue the city will gain from cruise tourism, as the recently passed law stipulates that a portion of the cruise tax per passenger—one-third, to be exact—will be allocated to municipalities where disembarkation ports are located for improving tourism infrastructure and services. And what is the mayor proposing? Broadly speaking, he wants the northern port to be turned into a recreation, walking, and sports area… However, since 2018, when about half of the northern port area of the Patras Port Authority was permanently granted to the Municipality of Patras for public benefit use, residents report that the allocated area (from Diakoniari Street to Agios Nikolaos and from Thessaloniki Street to Plaz, including the existing anchorage) remains undeveloped, being used as an unregulated parking lot. The delay in redevelopment could, of course, activate the clause for the return of the granted land.

These are the things Lagarde won’t say today

No one can be certain these days, but the markets have already priced in a new interest rate cut for the euro. The European Central Bank’s goal is to bring euro interest rates down to 1.75% by the end of the year. The plan includes a quarter-point cut today, another in April, followed by a pause to assess the situation before two more cuts by December. European leaders at the Summit will plan for large-scale joint borrowing for defense spending, assuming rates will drop below 2%. Additionally, the struggling Eurozone economy desperately needs cheaper money to stay above a meager 1% growth rate. Meanwhile, the euro’s exchange rate climbed to $1.07, while in America, they are already suffering from the price hikes caused by Trump’s tariffs before they have even taken effect. Unfortunately, today Christine Lagarde will not be able to outline these developments with such clarity, first because she is under strong pressure from the “hawks” who want expensive money in the Eurozone, and second because inflation stubbornly refuses to disappear from Europeans’ daily lives. Therefore, Europe will continue to rely on cryptic statements and speculation until it finds its balance…

The mysteries of the DAX

The DAX index on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange comfortably surpassed 23,000 points yesterday with an impressive 3.4% increase, while the day before it had collapsed by 2.5%. At one point, we even saw Deutsche Bank rise by 10%, as if it were a penny stock fluctuation. On the same day, it was announced that corporate bankruptcies in the world’s third-largest economy had exceeded 2,000, the highest level in the past 10 years. All this while the unemployment rate has risen to its highest point since the peak of the 2020 crisis. The truth is that the DAX index has very little connection to the German economy. The companies that make up the index have a strong international presence, with less than 20% of their revenue coming from Germany. Let’s not forget that the tech giant SAP alone accounted for nearly 50% of the index’s gains last year.