Government Faces Declining Support but Retains Control

According to Gerakis, since the 2023 elections, the ruling New Democracy party has seen its support drop by 10-12 percentage points. While some level of attrition is expected, he emphasized that public outrage over the Tempi train disaster has accelerated the decline.

“The rallies and protests over Tempi have taken a toll on the government. However, despite these losses, the prime minister remains dominant in approval ratings,” he explained.

However, the path to self-reliance in the next elections remains uncertain. Gerakis noted that while the current political balance could shift, the opposition has yet to capitalize on the government’s losses.

Recovery Depends on Government Action

When asked about the government’s ability to recover, Gerakis stressed that public sentiment has been made clear, and it is now up to the ruling party to respond effectively.

“The people have sent a strong message. The next moves are in the government’s hands,” he said.

He pointed out that the public’s main demands are twofold:

1. Full transparency and accountability regarding the Tempi disaster.
2. Concrete measures to improve railway safety and infrastructure.

The Opposition’s Struggles: Why SYRIZA and PASOK Aren’t Gaining Ground

Despite government losses, the opposition has failed to gain momentum, a finding Gerakis described as noteworthy.

“SYRIZA is facing significant internal divisions, while PASOK lacks a clear political identity or a strong governance proposal,” he explained.

Instead of turning to the main opposition parties, many voters remain undecided or disillusioned, creating an unpredictable electoral landscape.

The Rise of Anti-Systemic Parties: A Threat to Democracy?

With growing dissatisfaction, anti-systemic parties have gained attention. However, Gerakis downplayed concerns about them posing a threat to democracy.

“Greek society has experience. While there is an appeal to these movements, they do not appear to be a destabilizing force,” he asserted.

Tempi: A Wound That Hasn’t Healed

The analyst also touched on the emotional weight of the Tempi tragedy, emphasizing how deeply it resonated with the public.

“People saw themselves in this tragedy. The recent resurgence of the ‘I don’t have oxygen’ soundtrack only reinforced the public’s emotional connection to the crisis,” he said.

As Greece moves closer to the next electoral cycle, public trust, government accountability, and the opposition’s ability to present a viable alternative will shape the country’s political future.