• Hello there. Yesterday was a politically interesting day, sparked by a burning issue that affects around a hundred thousand families (police officers, firefighters, coast guards)—most of whom vote for the conservative party. An informal mutiny broke out against the government itself, led by two ministers and about ten of its MPs. To explain: it’s a well-known custom that when the military gets a salary bump, the other security forces follow. The only people who failed to grasp that—perhaps understandably due to recent storms, tremors, reshuffles, and changes—were those inside Maximos Mansion. So, the moment Dendias came out, bold and leader-like (after the show with the 66 MPs), and announced a 20% average raise for the Armed Forces… boom—the party kicked off. Understandably, the police officer who’s insulted, mocked, even sometimes killed (see: Lyggeridis), the firefighter who’s about to start burning, and the coast guard chasing migrants in rough seas thought: “What about us?” And since we’re in a politically murky moment, the 100,000 votes from those families suddenly found supporters inside the government in a matter of hours. It was like pouring oil on a fire—within two hours, the political scene had exploded.

The ‘mutineer tribes’ and Avramopoulos’s message

• There are several categories of “dissenters” who publicly urged (sic) the government to extend the raises to the other Security Forces. First, the blue MPs left out of the reshuffle (Arampatzi, Katsaniotis, Petsas, etc.), who now figure they have nothing to lose—so they go hard on the government in hopes of grabbing a few votes. Then there are the MPs who were promised ministries (verbally, of course) and got left out, like Avramopoulos, who reportedly even sent a written complaint (a message) to Mitsotakis himself, along with Plevris and Mitarakis, who were reshuffle-ins and -outs several times. Then we’ve got two ministers: Adonis, who’s been sulking over a series of bad communication decisions made over the past 20 days (hence his absence from TV), and Kikilias, who, as the minister responsible for the coast guard, figured he had to say something for them.

Mitsotakis

• As for K.M., while flying to Israel and witnessing this so-called mutiny unfold, he lost his cool—mainly with the two ministers—and called them up for a little talk. But what’s there to say after the fact? The survival instinct of politicians who feel their seat slipping away—or think it is—overrides everything else. And while I could go on from the sidelines and say “this isn’t the way to handle things,” I doubt it would add much. The real question is: what if Mitsotakis takes a hard turn… and decides to call elections now? Who’ll be looking for a job then?

The truth

• So what’s the truth here? Dendias had been working on this raise package for months. He agreed with the Prime Minister to go ahead with it—carefully calculating how it would work fiscally. He slashed around 1,800 military positions through retirements, closed bases, relied on the EU trend to boost defense spending, and addressed the urgent need to attract new recruits to officer positions in the Armed Forces. He lined everything up—and then he announced it. Politically, he came out looking like the top dog, let’s be honest. The real mistake? That nobody in Maximos thought ahead to realize that when you change military pay, the rest of the uniformed services follow. Or at least to explain to the public ahead of time that their turn would come too—later in the year or early 2026, just like the Armed Forces.

Pierrakakis

• And now, the poor guy stuck wearing the coat is the newly arrived Finance Minister, Pierrakakis. He’ll probably go on SKAI this morning to explain things. Of course, the raises for the Security Forces will happen too—but no matter what anyone says, the damage is done in terms of communication. Another unfortunate moment for the government—yet another own goal after the reshuffle. A shame.

The blue dinner tables

• Lately, political dinners among the ruling party have multiplied. Something about the weather, something about the tension, but the “blue tables” have been on the rise—dinners with ministers and MPs. For instance, last Thursday a source of mine noticed a flurry of movement outside a restaurant on Xenokratous Street in Kolonaki. He saw a bunch of MPs walking in. The table was booked by Notis Mitarakis, and attendees included Parliament Vice President Yiannis Plakiotakis and MPs Dimitris Markopoulos, Yiannis Pappas, Miltos Chrysomallis, Stelios Petsas, and Makarios Lazaridis. I hear more had been invited but couldn’t make it. What do they all have in common? They’re out of the government. And clearly, their dinner conversation wasn’t all praise for the administration.

PASOK – a lovely atmosphere…

• Back to his old tricks, our leader Nikos returns today from the U.S.—where he played the little Evzone with Greek-Americans—to deal with the blasphemous Katerina Batzeli, who called his 13–0 dig at SYRIZA’s Nikos Pappas “toxic.” But obviously, Androulakis’s issue isn’t really with Batzeli—or the nonsense she spouted on Blue Sky—but with Doukas, whom she strongly supported in the last internal elections. For a while now, Team Androulakis has been pushing him to roll some heads, to justify the party’s slide in the polls. In short, President Nikos is preparing to accuse Doukas and his supporters of being internal enemies undermining the party—classic move. He tried to start with Liakouli (also a Doukas backer), but she’s an MP, so he backed off. But with Batzeli, no such problem—she’s just a member of the Central Committee. PASOK’s disciplinary board meets midweek, and the betting is on whether she’ll be expelled. If the hardliners win, then Doukas will have to defend her—which means the feud with Androulakis continues, even as he now has Geroulanos’s support.

Piraeus Bank to acquire National Insurance in Q4

• Piraeus Bank is currently in the process of securing approvals from the Competition Commission regarding its acquisition of National Insurance. As they await the green light, the bank is “mapping” the insurer and assessing market needs to determine its next steps. They estimate all procedures will conclude soon, and Piraeus will become the sole shareholder by Q4 this year—at which point the new owner’s strategic plans will unfold. Expect changes in structure, strategy, and business plans—the philosophy of a fund differs greatly from that of a bank.

Stassis’s game changer

• This Thursday in Ptolemaida, PPC CEO Giorgos Stassis will unveil a major project that signals the end of the lignite era. With Prime Minister Mitsotakis present, the man who spearheaded PPC’s turnaround will present an ambitious €5+ billion investment plan in the data center sector. This transformation began in 2019 with the PM’s announcement to phase out lignite by 2028, a move clouded by the energy crisis. Since then, PPC has led in green energy, building 6.2 GW in renewables, with 1.3 GW more expected by year’s end. Stassis had hinted at data center plans last summer at the Eurelectric conference, and formalized them in autumn with a 55%-45% joint venture with DAMAC’s Caio Holding. The first project: a 25 MW data center in Spata. But insiders say this is tiny compared to the Western Macedonia project—a massive data ecosystem starting at 300 MW and aiming for 1 GW. Targeting Southeast Europe and big players in energy, health, banking, and education, this project has drawn international attention and is set to turn PPC into a connectivity hub, thanks to Greece’s strategic location. As Stassis recently said to analysts: the data center transformation is PPC’s real game changer.

BETA prepares Sanders Group for the Stock Exchange

• The Sanders Group from Denmark has commissioned BETA Securities with the procedures involved in its plan to be listed on the Greek Stock Exchange. According to executives familiar with the company’s intentions—which operates in the short-term rental market in Denmark, Spain, Portugal, Bulgaria, Cyprus and now Greece—the goal is for the listing to take place as early as this fall. The company was founded by Bo Sander, who has over two decades of experience in the Danish real estate rental sector, having held senior positions in other real estate firms, and he aims to make Greece the “hub” of the company’s operations. Its representative for Greece and Cyprus is Nasos Gavalas, one of the sector’s veteran executives with an institutional role in short-term rentals. The aim is to further expand both in the broader European market and especially in Greece, where Sanders is just beginning to grow, bolstered by the country’s strong tourism performance and demand from Northern European clients. Currently, the company’s portfolio in Greece and Cyprus exceeds 500 residential units—most of them (around 400) in the Cypriot market, mainly in standalone buildings. For Greece, with around 115 residential units at present, additional deals with property owners have already been set in motion, targeting a purely “Greek” portfolio of 2,000 units within two years. The Greek rollout began with initial properties in Attica, Thessaloniki, and Paros, while beyond talks with major property owners for potential asset utilization, part of the company’s strategic approach may include the future acquisition of a large firm already active in short-term rentals. Sanders Group claims it differentiates itself from other short-term rental companies by leasing properties long-term, refurbishing them with a unified aesthetic, and managing them through its own team, offering repeat clientele and loyalty programs. In terms of financials, the company’s total turnover for 2025 across all its operating markets is estimated at around €40 million.

Changing of the guard tomorrow at Vodafone

• On April 1, the official changing of the guard at Vodafone Greece will take place, with Achilleas Kanaris replacing Haris Broumidis as CEO. Broumidis held the reins of the telecom group’s subsidiary for 9 years, and worked a total of 23 years at the company. Kanaris, who was previously CEO of Vodafone Romania, had been coming to Athens in recent weeks to make initial contacts and receive briefings for his new role. In the period ahead, briefings will intensify and the structure of close associates and teams will be formed. There are numerous pending matters, the most important of which include the company’s €1 billion investment plan through 2029, the development of its network, and especially the need to make Vodafone more competitive. Expectations are high, as Kanaris is known as an aggressive manager.

DEI FiberGrid’s “transfers” for network development

• Since we’re on the topic of telecommunications, the market is closely watching the moves of DEI’s subsidiary FiberGrid, which is rolling out fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) networks and offering wholesale services to telecom providers in the Greek market—and soon, retail services on a wider scale. In the presentations given by DEI management and in the board of directors’ report accompanying last year’s financial results, the telecoms section notes that as of the end of 2024, FiberGrid had reached 650,000 homes/businesses, with total investments during the year reaching €87 million. The 2025 goal is to speed up the growth rate and cover more than 1.5 million homes/businesses (possibly 1.7 million), extending coverage to even more municipalities in major urban centers across the country. By June 2025, around 650,000 homes are expected to be commercially available (Ready for Service), while by year’s end this number is expected to reach 1.1 million. The long-term goal is to reach 3 million households and businesses over a 3–5 year horizon. DEI FiberGrid seems to be effectively working toward these targets. After installing cables on power poles, teams of technicians—mainly from Asia—are now completing installations so that household connections can go live.

The fiber battle and Vodafone’s Holding company

• With its “transfers,” DEI is putting pressure on the competition, so the battle for fiber-optic dominance among telecom providers is now reaching a peak. OTE, Vodafone, and Nova are racing to implement major investments in fiber and 5G, with OTE (Telekom) committing €3 billion through 2027, Nova (United Group) €2 billion, and Vodafone Greece €1 billion, as mentioned earlier. The latter, in an effort to accelerate the development of its fiber network, founded its subsidiary Fiber2All in September 2023. Then, on Friday, March 28, Vodafone established another company: “Fiber2All Holdings,” based at Vodafone’s headquarters in Chalandri. It was launched with a share capital of €25,000. As its name suggests, its purpose is holding company activities, obviously with an emphasis on fiber. The new company is 100% owned by Vodafone Greece, which paid the full €25,000 capital, and its board includes Haris Broumidis as President, Maria Skagkou as Vice President, and Milan Knize (CFO of the parent company) and Nikolaos Plevris as members.

Groupama’s management in French hands – Changes ahead

• Two weeks ago, Groupama Insurance announced—departing from its usual procedures—the departure of CEO Christos Katsis, just days before the release of its 2024 financial results. Acting CEO in the interim is Laurent Thuillier, previously his deputy. It appears the French decided to take decisive action in Greece and, for the first time, appointed a French—not Greek—CEO. On April 21, just after Easter, Groupama Insurance will transfer Mr. Hassène Feki from Tunisia—CEO of STAR Assurances, its local subsidiary—to head the Greek Groupama. Mr. Laurent Thuillier, Groupama’s Deputy CEO, who also served as President of the Hellenic-French Chamber of Commerce, is leaving Europe for an upgraded role as CEO in Tunisia. Yesterday, Groupama’s roughly 300 employees in Greece were informed that the new management aims to expand its operations in Greece—not just organically—and plans major restructuring moves both in its portfolio and its management model.

Change at the Hellenic-Ukrainian Chamber

• Last summer, amid the heat of war, the Hellenic-Ukrainian Economic Chamber was founded with the main aim of coordinating Greece’s aid to Ukraine. The Chamber’s first President was former Athens Mayor Kostas Bakoyannis. However, as the war nears its end, its goals are shifting, as seen in the composition of its Board of Directors, which now includes the CVC Group, two major Greek construction groups, and a prominent business family. Recently, the Chamber decided that Nikos Kostopoulos—former CEO of Hellenic Defense Systems, now Management Executive Director at George Kokkalas’ Endeavor Integrated Solutions—will henceforth serve as President. Clearly, an effort is underway to prepare the ground for Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction, though it’s uncertain to what extent the Trump administration agrees with these plans.

Stock Exchange: +18.81% in the first quarter – Fears of a correction

• Despite the correction in the last two trading sessions, the Athens Stock Exchange closes today one of the best first quarters in its history, with a total return of +18.81%. The ASE’s return is calculated in euros, whereas the returns of the Russian (+29.6%) and Polish (+26.3%) stock exchanges are calculated in their volatile local currencies. The average daily trading value now exceeds €170 million, while the profits reported by listed companies fully justify the capitalization of €121 billion. The cash distributions and dividends that listed companies will pay out from April until the end of June exceed €5 billion—the highest amount since 2007. In Athens, everyone is optimistic about the future, but everyone also has their finger on the trigger, anticipating the major “correction” that could follow the first quarter’s upward trend. To confirm such a correction, one would need to see a session where the low point is accompanied by particularly high trading volume. Across the Atlantic, stock markets are “smelling” stagflation in the American economy for the first time since the 1970s. The S&P 500 dropped 2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 716 points or 1.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite plunged 2.7%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended the week in the red in 7 of the last 9 weeks. All three indices have been down for two consecutive months.

New VAT collection targets to be announced today

• At today’s press conference with Finance Minister K. Pierrakakis and AADE Governor G. Pitsilis, Deputy Prime Minister K. Hatzidakis will also participate. The course of VAT revenue by sector will be presented in detail, along with new developments in electronic payments. The Finance Minister will set the goal of reducing the so-called “VAT gap” to below 9% by 2027 (down from 12.5% today), with a further target of 5% by 2029. This means the government hopes to collect €27 billion from VAT this year, and by 2027 to surpass €30 billion in VAT revenue for the first time. Electronic Delivery Notes will be granted a few weeks’ extension, while the submission of monthly VAT returns for professionals with simplified books will begin in April. The obligation will initially apply to those who establish their business after April 1.

New Development Law enters public consultation

• After months of drafting, the Development Minister will submit the new Development Law for public consultation tomorrow night. The law embodies the government’s philosophy for the economic “growth model”. Only productive investments that create quality jobs will be supported, with special incentives for border and economically vulnerable areas. It is rumored that subsidies will be increased for value-added investments that enhance the economy’s competitiveness. At the same time, the new Development Law introduces a modern online Registry and Quality Control system for projects. The certification process is radically changing, as each quality inspection will be electronically recorded in the Registry—who the inspectors are, what they inspect, and how, with photos and data from every stage of the audit process.

Extension for the 5 flagship Recovery Fund investments

• On Friday, the Government Gazette published a five-month extension to the deadline for completing the major “flagship” investment projects funded by the Recovery and Resilience Fund. The Joint Ministerial Decision concerns the “Flagship Investments of Exceptional Importance” falling under the provisions of Law 4864/2021. These include five key investments: Metlen’s project in Volos, Intertrade of Softex, Aegean’s flight simulation center, AKTOR, and Inognoa. These investments were supposed to be completed by December 2025, but after negotiations with Brussels, the deadline was extended to May 31, 2026.

The Trump administration opts for controlled recession

• In its attempt to cut spending and balance the federal budget, the Trump administration is triggering a “controlled recession,” hoping that it will attract future investment and create jobs. For now, though, the consumer confidence index has plunged to its lowest level in four years. It dropped 7.2 points in March, down to 92.9—close to the lowest point since February 2021. This marks the fourth consecutive monthly decline, something not seen since the 2008 financial crisis. Consumer expectations fell to 65.2, the lowest level in 12 years. Any value below 80 on the Consumer Expectations Index indicates a recession. The same applies to employment prospects, which also dropped to a 12-year low. At present, “the numbers aren’t adding up” for the Trump administration, which is why the President is constantly resorting to rhetorical shows of national (or nationalist) bravado.

Chinese real estate going through tough times

• For 20 consecutive months, the prices of newly built homes have been falling in China. In February, prices of new homes fell by -5.2% year-on-year. In 2015, during a comparable collapse in China’s property market, prices fell for 13 consecutive months. As for older (non-new) homes, prices dropped -7.5% in February, following a -7.8% plunge in January. This was the first monthly drop since the economic stimulus measures were introduced in September 2024. These figures come from China’s major cities. Across the vast country, the collapse of real estate is taking on even greater proportions.