Hello, I’ve been reading since yesterday about the first post-Easter poll (Pulse/Skai), which shows a recovery of ND, the usual drop of PASOK (lower and lower, Nikos), and a slight decline for Zoe. I asked my own polling source (which aligns with that of M.M.) and they told me the following: “First, our surveys have just started running, meaning yesterday, and we’ll stop on Thursday (May Day), so we don’t have a clear picture yet. Yes, at first glance, ND has risen compared to the Tempi period, that is, with adjustments it’s at 30%, but caution—this is based on only 24 hours of data, so we haven’t had the chance to process the rest of the data to tell you whether PASOK dropped, but after a long time, Zoe also dropped, as Pulse ‘found.’ We have no reason not to believe it, even though we’re talking about decimal points. In any case, be a little patient,” added one of the two sources, who also told me something else: “Let’s be serious, polls…with lamb still in your mouth from the Easter holidays and just before May Day don’t tell me much.”

NOK – Plunge

So, as is known, since December and the legal entanglement (Council of State) that arose due to NOK, problems began in construction. What wasn’t known was the result of the government’s “inertia” in not legislating to resolve the legal issue with construction. In January, according to ELSTAT data, building permits dropped by 17%, and surface area and volume of constructions fell by 37%-38%, and naturally and self-evidently, the collapse of construction activity continues to this day (it’s now May) since nothing has been done. Can you believe that a government would allow construction activity to nosedive for nearly half a year? Yet it’s happening, and I hope (and hear) that it will soon be corrected by M.M. (Hatzidakis) as well as by the ministry leadership (Papastavrou, Tagaras). One truly wonders how this happens, given that everyone knows that problems with the Council of State always arise, and rightly or wrongly, it’s part of its job to make judgments. But it’s also the government’s job not to let such a tragic situation unfold.

Milos

I move to another, smaller topic, but one indicative of what’s generally happening in the sector: for about three months now, since the scandal was revealed about the “dumping” at Sarakiniko in Milos to build a hotel, the Urban Planning Department has stopped operating. The folks shut the place down and are basically saying, “If that’s how you’re going to be, we won’t reopen until you stop… hassling us and let us destroy the island without interference.” Urban planning, permits, people, work—nothing. Enough already, someone should finally deal with this.

The handling of Karamanlis

M.M. is awaiting today’s reading of the case file on Karamanlis in the Plenary, after which “blue” MPs will go to read the case file, for which Parliament is seeking ways to secure due to its volume. The central idea, I’m told, already exists, and it’s no coincidence that Pavlos Marinakis doesn’t speak of the “Triantopoulos model” which is the guide. Also, as government officials say, the fact that someone is prosecuted for a felony and mentions their political superior does not automatically mean the political superior is prosecuted for a felony as well. Therefore, ND has its own proposal on its radar regarding the offense of breach of duty (a misdemeanor), which, however, the Judicial Council following the Preliminary Examination Committee can freely upgrade, as it judges independently and autonomously. Though that’s unlikely…

The Election of Hatzidakis in Valencia

While all this is happening, Mitsotakis is in Valencia with about twenty executives and ministers for the EPP congress. Yesterday he voted again for Weber as president (the only candidate), and today the results will be announced for the ten vice presidents of the European center-right. Yesterday, the EPP vice-presidential candidate Kostis Hatzidakis also arrived in the Spanish city, having made personal contacts, while ND’s Secretary for International Relations, Tasos Chatzivasileiou, worked to “cement” the party line. Of course, the result of a ballot is never a given, but within ND they estimate that there will be no surprises.

Gerapetritis – Constantinople

Many scenarios have circulated about the visit of Foreign Minister G. Gerapetritis and Deputy Foreign Minister A. Papadopoulou to Constantinople, but the reality is that Mr. Gerapetritis had not visited the city since assuming his duties. Thus, he will have a very full schedule beginning with a meeting with the Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew and a visit to the Phanar, as well as a meeting with the Greek community in the city. On May Day, when Constantinople is “unlivable” due to rallies, Mr. Gerapetritis, hosted by Consul General K. Koutras, will visit the Orphanage, which is the largest wooden building in Europe. He will then travel to Halki, where he will be briefed on the renovation works at the Theological School, which still awaits Erdogan’s decision on reopening. The next day, he will visit the largest institution of the Greek community, the Balikli Hospital, and his visit to Constantinople will conclude with a meeting with well-known Turkish journalists at the Sismanogleio Mansion. We’ll see what news emerges from this meeting; in any case, it is a positive development that the Greek Foreign Minister will have a rare opportunity to speak directly to Turkish journalists and convey the necessary messages to Turkish public opinion.

Adonis – MPs

In Parliament, the briefing sessions for ND MPs on upcoming bills have resumed, to clarify doubts and prevent crises from emerging. The first session was led by Health Minister Adonis Georgiadis, who, along with Irini Agapidaki and Marios Themistokleous, answered questions about the bill entering the Plenary today. About 60 MPs participated—a decent number, considering absences due to foreign missions and the simultaneous session of the Production and Trade Committee. I’m told that the parliamentary group secretary Apostolos Vesyropoulos, who is making efforts to ensure MPs don’t feel “left out,” has arranged with Nikos Dendias to provide a briefing either Monday or Tuesday on his own upcoming bill.

The Energy Sultan of the Emirates in Athens

Right after May Day, on Friday, May 2, Sultan bin Ahmed Al Jaber, Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology of the United Arab Emirates, CEO of the ADNOC Group, Chairman of Masdar, and Executive Chairman of XRG, will be in Athens. Private meetings have been scheduled at a central hotel in Athens with many ministers and businesspeople, covering a very specific agenda ranging from Energy to Data Centers, Health, Infrastructure, and Tourism. Among other responsibilities, Sultan bin Ahmed Al Jaber heads the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), one of the largest oil companies in the world. His name gained wide recognition when he was appointed by the UAE as president of COP28 (the United Nations Climate Change Conference held in Dubai from November 30 to December 12, 2023), holding two seemingly contradictory roles: oil chief and leader of global climate negotiations.

The green light for Nomikos at the Bank of Epirus

With concise procedures and interventions in particularly positive tones, yesterday’s general meeting of shareholders of the Cooperative Bank of Epirus approved the text and content of the agreement by which the investment company Capstone Capital of Peter Nomikos will become the largest shareholder of the Bank of Epirus, after investing over 30 million euros in the upcoming share capital increase and acquiring 51% of the bank. During the General Meeting, the “mother” of the investment company Capstone Capital was revealed, which is none other than the Wall Street-listed Thermo Fisher Scientific (NYSE:TMO) of the Nomikos family, whose capitalization today reaches 160 billion dollars. The management of Epirus assured shareholders that the procedures for obtaining a nationwide banking license from the Bank of Greece are being accelerated, in parallel with the fit & proper process of Peter Nomikos.

The time has come for the Aktor Concessions and Aktor deal

The AKTOR group’s performance took a leap in 2024. In the summer of 2022, when the Bakos – Kaimenakis – Exarchos business group took control of AKTOR (formerly Intrakat), the company closed the year with a turnover of just over 200 million euros, negative EBITDA and €1.3 billion in backlog. Two and a half years later, the Group announced six times greater turnover, seven times greater gross profits (124 million from 18 million), EBITDA of 90 million and almost three times more backlog, at 4.6 billion. Meanwhile, white smoke is expected to come out today regarding the sale of Aktor Concessions, as there seems to be a happy ending to the negotiations that had begun several months ago between Ellaktor and Aktor. Today, April 30, is the final period of exclusive negotiations that the listed company had announced in February for the finalization of the deal. Aktor Concessions’ portfolio – which will be transferred to Aktor and will significantly strengthen the group’s activities in the concessions sector – includes the Morea motorway with a 71.7% stake, the Rio-Antirio Bridge with 27.7%, the Aegean motorway with 22.2%, and Olympia Road with 20.48%. The company’s portfolio also includes the Kalamata – Methoni PPP with 60%, of which 40% is currently controlled by Aktor and 40% by the VOAK PPP, while in a joint venture with AVAX it has undertaken the Tavropos irrigation PPP. The fate of the Alimos Marina, which has been taken over by REDS, remains unclear.

AVAX’s coffers are still being filled by Attiki Odos

AVAX’s coffers will be filled with an amount of around 60 million euros in the coming years in the form of dividends and capital returns that it will receive from Attiki Odos. This was stated by the management of the construction group in yesterday’s presentation that followed the announcement of the financial results for 2024, with AVAX achieving a record operating profitability, exceeding 105 million euros. The construction company has received as the companies that managed and operated the road axis before it passed to GEK TERNA have not shared all their profits as there are still years to be settled. It is also particularly important that the group has managed to significantly reduce its bank borrowing, something that has been a concern for the market for some time. Thus, at the end of 2024, net bank borrowing stood at 237.5 million euros, 49% lower than in 2020, while the leverage ratio stood at 2.25x. The management also highlighted that AVAX Concessions entered into a new bond loan of 300 million euros, boosting cash flows for investments in concessions, real estate development and energy.

Vassilakis’ shares in Eleftherios Venizelos

Regarding the shares the group has acquired in the Athens International Airport (following a related question that had also been asked at the AIA general assembly a few days ago), the head of AEGEAN, Eftychios Vassilakis, who is also known to serve as CEO of Autohellas, was asked yesterday at the general assembly. Mr. Vassilakis stated that Autohellas holds a small percentage of shares, and AEGEAN also holds a stake close to 1%. “Given that we as an airline also contribute to the development of Athens airport, we considered it a good investment move, which is why we bought shares. We are participating in AIA as a simple investor, but we also have a significant contribution to the airport as an airline.” It is noteworthy that in 2024, based on the airport’s data, AEGEAN’s market share (together with Olympic Air) was at 43.6%, SKY express at 12%, Ryanair at 5.7%, other “traditional” carriers at 25.3%, and the remaining low-cost carriers at 13.4%.

Headache at NN

The Piraeus Bank deal for Ethniki Insurance hasn’t caused a “headache” only for the National Bank, but also for NN, which seems set to lose a significant revenue source, the bankassurance product “channel” for which it currently has an exclusive partnership with Piraeus Bank. “It’s really a problem. However, we still have time to assess what steps we need to take. Our agreement still has a way to go,” a source from NN told me. On the other hand, time is also a relative matter, because while the exclusive distribution contract may run until 2030, what happens if the bank attempts to modify it with the possible aim of removing the exclusivity clause but continuing to distribute NN’s products even after the Ethniki Insurance era at Piraeus ends? I imagine the same applies to ERGO, where the agreement is for the distribution of General Insurance contracts… A real headache, I tell you! For the record, NN’s production in 2024 reached 950 million euros, maintaining its leading position in the entire insurance sector of the country. Operating profit rose to 90.2 million euros from 47.9 million euros in 2023, and pre-tax profits based on IFRS (which include investment results) increased to 87.4 million euros, from 24.3 million euros a year earlier.

Yannis Stournaras warns and predicts

The speech of the Governor of the Bank of Greece at CEO Club Greece contained many interesting points and news. Describing the international landscape, the Governor noted that perhaps – for the first time since the Bretton Woods era – there is investor hesitancy towards U.S. federal bonds. This development alone acts as a catalyst in the global financial system, as the status of U.S. federal bonds as a global risk-free benchmark forms the basis for valuing stocks and bonds worldwide. Regarding euro interest rates, Y. Stournaras estimated they will continue to fall to 2%, but will stop there; he does not expect further reductions due to great uncertainty. The Governor emphasized the major opportunity for Europe: there is a chance for it to emerge as a safe investment haven, by strengthening the euro’s role as an international reserve currency in an environment where options for risk-adjusted positive returns are limited. The prerequisite for Europe to emerge as a safe investment haven and to enhance the international role of the euro is to accelerate European integration and better coordinate policies (Banking Union, European Deposit Insurance Scheme (EDIS), common Banking Crisis Management Framework, Capital Markets Union, Savings and Investment Union).

Germany follows Greece’s digital footsteps

Dr. Karsten Wildberger will become the first Minister of Digital Governance in Germany’s history, in the new cabinet being formed by Friedrich Merz. He is not a politician; he is a businessman in the digital economy sector. He will resign as CEO of Ceconomy, which he has led for the past four years, effective May 5. Ceconomy is a holding company that controls the electronics retail chains Media-Markt and Saturn. The official title of the position that Wildberger will assume is “Minister of Digital Affairs and State Modernization.” The new minister, who is leaving the private sector, holds a PhD in Physics and his professional experience has focused on strategy and digital transformation. As a former consultant at Boston Consulting Group, he advised companies in various industries on these issues. After his consulting career, Dr. Wildberger held international leadership roles at T-Mobile, Vodafone, and Telstra. Ceconomy’s stock market performance, however, is not particularly impressive. It has underperformed the DAX stock index during his tenure. However, it clearly outperformed key peers in the sector such as Best Buy, Fnac Darty, and the Glore e-commerce benchmark.