Vladimir Putin‘s move to call for the start of bilateral negotiations for a final solution to the war is a message that is more tactical than substantive. Russia and its President, Putin, have for 110 days now thrown the “ball in the court” several times in what attempts have been made and despite a very different – unpressured – approach from the US. Indeed, the Kremlin has chosen to throw away not just any opportunity, but the opportunity that the US itself has given it, and successively so. The Russian narrative until a few days ago was “there is no direct discussion with Kiev especially with Volodymyr Zelensky‘s Kiev”.

Today, what could it be that has changed the tide so much as to bring Moscow, which has been one of the most immovable diplomatic powers of the past 25 years, to the other side?

The Kremlin seems to have, unlike Trump’s Washington, a very clear and coordinated plan of action in which on the one hand Moscow is reaping all the benefits it can after the end of Biden’s term diplomatically and on the other hand it is pushing its forces in the fields in every way possible, mainly by pushing Ukraine, which is still losing forces and being forced to retreat, even if this is not going to cost it directly more than it has already lost in terms of territory in three years of fighting.

But Moscow also realizes something else… Europe remains actively and more forcefully than before on Zelensky’s side, and the joint presence at the highest level of France, Britain and Germany 72 hours ago in Ukraine is not something Russia will take lightly… At the same time, Trump’s US has formally committed itself to Kiev’s side, albeit at “no cost” with Washington endorsing with a presidential signature the rare lands for which the oval office has been “playing stall” for the past month waiting for a Russian move that never came…

Putin in no way wants to lose once again the “momentum” and that is why he made the move to propose a direct meeting between Russia and Ukraine and even at Turkey… The first time something similar happened was in the first months of the war and the Russian proposal, which was never answered diplomatically, contained as an axis “surrender immediately and there will be no continuation”. Today Putin cannot in truth propose the same thing, simply because the Russian threat at that time, which was summed up in “in three days we will have Kiev in our hands”, has turned into thousands of dead for Russia as well…At the same time, the Russian President knows that with this move he does not yet bring his relationship with Trump, who is not negative to such a direct discussion even if he and Europe are not present, to a rupture level… But Putin knows well that even if this move is only tacticism and “dripping” the US will not remain with “hands folded”. Trump, who has openly stated that he intends to lift some of the tariffs on Russian energy and limitations, has “no chance” of imposing new ones with a presidential order in a matter of minutes.

At the same time, decades may have passed since the last common European success, but the Union’s firm and unapologetic stance against Trump’s extremes, Moscow’s crowns and evasions, has not wavered and has actively and, most importantly, uniformly supported its positions. France, Germany and Britain did not back down and, at political, economic and, for some, personal risk, continue to stand by Kiev. The Russian attempt to split the European bloc is rather unsuccessful if one considers that of the 27 only Orbán’s firmly Russophile (energy – political and economic) Hungary, Fisso’s Estonia and Fidias – but not Cyprus – were present at the Russian salvo of 9 May.

The way things are going, it is unlikely that the Russian proposal will have a serious effect, but down the road Moscow seems to know that its room for manoeuvre, even for high-level diplomatic manoeuvres, is now narrow.