Hello, I read that Edi Rama of neighboring Albania is preparing for his fourth term and when I commented on it with my source from the M.M, he smiled and replied, “our guy sees all that and thinks… I’m not even on my third yet.” Indeed, I would now say it’s early since there’s a long way to go for such thoughts, but speaking with the same source (Maximos), who despite their “origin” is always a calm and serious voice and not lacking in common sense, they told me: “K.M. has absolutely no reason to rush to elections, he’ll go in late 2026 after a good summer season, provided there are no disasters with fires. Or he might go in spring 2027, although he doesn’t want any adventures if two (or even three?) elections are needed since the country takes on the EU presidency from July 2027 and Mitsotakis is institutional. He doesn’t want last-minute balancing acts.” So I said to my source, go ahead and develop the scenario — and I said this because I’m 100% sure they’ve discussed it with the Prime Minister himself, though he’ll never admit it, as he never speaks on his behalf, especially to journalists. “So listen,” he said, “if we don’t have something unexpected and unpleasant — say, a national incident with a negative outcome (here he knocked on wood), or some financial scandal that will…sink us — then you tell me the election results. If N.D. gets something between 29%-31%, Zoe 14%-15%, and PASOK lower — or even if it’s the reverse — I ask you: can Androulakis tell Mitsotakis to go because he didn’t get a majority, and that he wants so-and-so PASOK member, or a third person, or Dendias etc., like we’re hearing? Unlikely, because… you don’t speak up when your opponent (that is, K.M.) has you at double score. So then, if he plays hardball and doesn’t join a coalition government, then either Androulakis will have to resign, or he’ll have to become vice-president or a minister. Unless Mitsotakis is at 30%-31%, calls new elections with the excuse that PASOK refuses to allow the country to be governed, and gains two or three more points. In any case, for us not to see Mitsotakis as Prime Minister, either he has to get below 26%, or he must resign earlier due to some sudden adverse event.”

And the rest of PASOK?

So, these were the words of my (I repeat, trustworthy) source at M.M, but I also contacted my equally serious source in PASOK to ask what’s going on there now that, as time passes, the numbers keep dropping. The picture the person gave me was telling. “Whenever we’re at a social event and Nikos isn’t around, we start…the mourning. Everyone, though — even the closest supporters of the leader in the past: Christidis, Mantzios, Spyropoulos, and of course all those on the other side — Geroulanos, Anna, Haris, etc. It’s just that the mourning has no end, nor does it lead to any action, because objectively you can’t overthrow a leader who was elected six months ago without an intervening political event, i.e., elections. So we wait for the polls and either he’ll leave on his own, or we’ll overthrow him if the numbers are that bad. Unless he pulls off the…magic trick of getting into the government, in which case we’ll all sit quietly until further notice.” I don’t find either of the analyses by my sources (from M.M. and PASOK) excessive — on the contrary, that’s roughly how it will go, barring an emergency event.

Blue massage over the fields

Now, onto current matters… An informational massage is being planned for the “blue” MPs worried about the impact of the recent Presidential Decree concerning the zoning of small settlements, by the Maximos Mansion. Answers about what applies and what doesn’t and how the government will address the issue affecting thousands of property owners will be given by the Minister of Environment and Energy, Stavros Papastavrou, and the deputy responsible for spatial planning matters, Nikos Tagaras, in an informal meeting to be held this coming Wednesday at 17:00 in the Senate chamber of the Parliament. However, the prevailing impression among majority MPs, especially from the provinces, is that the totality of plots in settlements with fewer than 2,000 inhabitants are losing their building rights and, consequently, their value, as they are effectively turning into farmland. Nevertheless, the scheduling of the informational “seminar” by Mr. Tagaras temporarily suspends a new “strike” from the group of eleven with the submission of a new question.

Meloni’s “victory” and the new trains

It is no coincidence that Mitsotakis referred yesterday in Rome to Meloni’s personal actions for the agreement signed on the trains. Essentially, the deal was sealed at the Kyranakis-Salvini meeting on Thursday, but Meloni also wanted a political win to claim for herself and not her government partner, hence she asked for secrecy. Of course, we care little about Italy’s interna corporis, we’re more interested in the new contract with the Italians that stipulates that after 2026 they’ll introduce new trains to the network — not second-hand ones. At the same time, the new contract has strict clauses and includes penalties in case of failure to implement the agreed terms. And what’s critical is that the Italians accepted in the contract the provision for additional employees in the positions of train supervisors. Of course, things aren’t rosy for us, as the total bill for the restoration and upgrade of the network will exceed €1 billion.

The Italian tongue-twisters

And I continue with yesterday’s Greece-Italy High-Level Cooperation Council, where attendees told me the atmosphere was very warm and noticeably improved compared to the recent past. After all, Mitsotakis and Meloni sit next to each other at European Council meetings. Otherwise, the Italians couldn’t pronounce the Greek surnames at all. For example, at the lunch held yesterday, all ministers spoke for three minutes. When Giannis Kefalogiannis finished, the Italian Energy Minister took the floor and couldn’t for the life of him pronounce the name of the Greek Deputy Minister Nikos Tsafos, so Meloni intervened and said, “Come on, it’s not a hard name — Tsafos. Next time I’ll give you Kefalogiannis!” Needless to say, the announcer later “butchered” the names of Theodorikakos, Kyranakis, and Papastergiou, although she nailed the most difficult one — Gerapetritis.

The menu in Rome

In any case, in Rome K.M and the 9 ministers didn’t go hungry, as at Villa Pamphili the Italians had arranged for a good lunch. Here’s the rundown: fresh maccheroncini with shrimp and pistachio pesto as a starter, meagre fillet with yellow and red tomato confit, capers and thyme for the main course, accompanied by a small potato soufflé with a bouquet of asparagus, while for dessert a pistachio semifreddo with pistachio crumble and dark chocolate sauce was served.

Domna’s return

The Minister of Social Cohesion and Family, Domna Michailidou, returned in person to her duties yesterday, speaking at a conference on the Demographic issue, at a central hotel in Athens. Ms. Michailidou had already returned to work for several days, a short time after the birth of her son, albeit attending meetings, Cabinet sessions or presentations via teleconference from her home. Now, she’s returning to the ministerial routine, even with scheduled hours to see her son.

Generali–Euromedica, the new deal in the Health sector

According to market information, there’s a new deal in the Health sector. Reliable sources report that Euromedica is passing under the control of the insurance group Generali. According to the same sources, the process seems mature and announcements are imminent.

The shipowner’s beef with the banker

A major shipowner (one of the biggest in the country) is particularly annoyed with the management of a systemic bank. He believes they tricked him – more specifically, that they used him – regarding a building he wanted to buy. The shipowner, who’s a “big cat,” realized from the very beginning that they “ditched” him and their relationship soured. Now that the official announcements are approaching, it’s only going to get worse.

Astifidis, Kyriakoulis, Tzortzis

He delayed, at some point was even exposed by the company’s financial results, tried this and that, and in the end, it worked out for him. We’re talking about Tasos Astifidis of Amvrosia, who is behind the Kyriakoulis deal. Kyriakoulis’s share closed yesterday up 16.91% at €1.12 with 228,744 shares traded, as Indigo Marine Inc., owned by the Tzortzis family, acquired a 26.75% stake in the listed company. Areti, Spyridon, and Theofanis Kyriakoulis transferred 2,031,681 common shares over-the-counter, Indigo now controls 26.75% and takes on a central shareholder role in the listed company. Shareholders of Indigo Marine are Panagiotis and Rigas Tzortzis, sons of Th. Tzortzis, former main shareholder of Alco Hellas. Kyriakoulis has had quite a rough time on the stock market, and it’s indicative that its market cap, even after yesterday’s rise, is just €8.5 million.

Where is Kyriakoulis headed

The entry of the Tzortzis sons, assuming of course a solid business plan and fresh capital for the company, could signal a revival of the listed company. In the market, there are rumors and “reports” that a public offer for the acquisition of the entire company is imminent. The truth is that the capitalization of €8.5 million is not justified by the company’s financial results (losses of €2.15 million for 2024). It is also true that if someone wanted to acquire the whole of Kyriakoulis, they could have done it a while ago – a year ago or even three months ago – when the share was drifting at €0.77. It seems that Indigo Marine entered Kyriakoulis’s share capital with a strong stake “to test the waters,” to assess “from within” the company’s real capabilities and prospects. For the time being, it probably isn’t interested in a public offer. In any case, Indigo Marine of Panagiotis and Rigas Tzortzis is certainly interested in cruises, and the Kyriakoulis family has no objection to sharing the burden of its problems. Kyriakoulis has already “burned half its book.” In 2024, it closed with a turnover of €40.88 million but for another year posted losses of €2.15 million, with its net equity amounting to €5.74 million.

Countdown for the Arsakio Arcade

The project of the Arsakio Arcade by Legendary Food, financed by Alpha Bank with 11.63 million euros, is nearing completion. The renovation of the historic building has a total budget of 18 million euros and involves a full renovation and repurposing of a total area of 13,000 square meters of the Arsakio Arcade. The good news is that the venture is set for great success, as all leases have been signed, with 75% already finalized and 25% in the signing stage. Information indicates that within this month, commercial stores on Stadiou Street (Lacoste, NIKE, BSB, Bostonian) will open, and at the beginning of June, the stores inside the arcade will be handed over to all lessees. It is a condition that all must operate simultaneously, so in June, their setup will begin, and the grand opening will take place in the Fall.

New (brilliant) Business Opportunities: Cafeterias of the Parliament for Rent

In June, bids will be submitted for the new tender that the Parliament is now launching for the lease of its cafeterias. This involves the leasing of a) the cafeterias on the ground floor and second floor and the restaurant of the Hellenic Parliament building, b) the cafeteria of the building at Amalias Avenue 20 and G. Souri 5 (Bodossaki Mansion), and c) the cafeteria of the building on Lenorman Street 218 (former Tobacco Factory) which serve the members of Parliament, employees, and visitors. The lease is done with a “fixed” rent of 1,000 euros (plus the applicable fees and adjustments every three years) for all leased spaces, as well as an “additional percentage rent,” meaning rent based on turnover, which will range between two and five percent (2%-5%). Therefore, the tender includes a table with indicative quantities and prices, where the total annual cost (pre-VAT) is below 1 million euros, at 891 thousand euros. Regarding the indicative annual quantities consumed in the Parliament cafeterias, the biggest… hit is the freddo espresso – 22,000 per year, followed by 20,000 freddo cappuccinos, 18,000 double Greek coffees, and 11,000 single Greek coffees, 14,000 cappuccinos, and 12,000 double cappuccinos, just 4,000 frappes, and so on.

Cold Shower for OLTH from the Hellenic Asset Development Fund

Yesterday we talked about the highly anticipated General Assembly of the shareholders of the Thessaloniki Port Authority (OLTH), which, in addition to the 2€/share dividend, had to discuss a number of new activities (e.g., converting the Customs building into a hotel). However, it seems that things are boiling at OLTH. The Hellenic Asset Development Fund, which participates in the Board of Directors as a representative of the State, suddenly requested the postponement of OLTH’s General Assembly yesterday! Information suggests that, although the reasons cited by the Fund’s management were formal, the reality is that the request for postponement must have been made in coordination with the government. There is a lot happening at OLTH right now. It seems that the majority of Ivan Savvidis’ side has already decided not to renew the term of the Board member and Executive Chairman, Thanasis Liagos. Information from Thessaloniki indicates that former MP, MEP, and Minister of Development Christos Folias is set to take on an important role at OLTH. As for the expansion plans of OLTH’s activities that the administration had planned, a prominent market figure with responsibilities at OLTH said: “Let them first implement the mandatory investments, and then we can discuss the next steps…”

Off Target for Plastika Thrakis

Eurobank Equities and Piraeus Securities, which last October-November set very high targets for Plastika Thrakis, are completely off track, at least so far. Specifically, Eurobank Equities had set a target price of 7.7 euros within 12 months, with the stock at 3.78 euros at the time, and today, seven months later, at 3.85 euros, while the General Index has gained 25% during the same period. The report mentioned a reasonable value of the group between 294 and 392 million euros (Plastika Thrakis is currently valued at 168 million euros), while consolidated sales for 2024 were estimated at 360 million euros (the group reported 379 million euros), EBITDA at 44 million euros (the group reported 41.3 million euros), and pre-tax profits at 18.4 million euros (the group reported 13.7 million euros). Okay, one might think, it’s not the first time an analyst has been wrong. However, this specific report belongs to the category of Sponsored Research, meaning it is an analysis funded by a listed company, which is common and allowed under the MIFID II directive. But even the report from Piraeus Sec., which was released last November, set a target price of 7.2 euros (within 12 months), and their forecasts for the listed company’s financial figures for 2024 also missed the mark. Will the gap with the high target prices close, and why was there a mismatch between the forecasts for the financial figures and what was announced six months after the reports were published? One could argue that there is still time and the stock could make an impressive rally, despite its evident weakness on the board so far, with the assumption that 2025 will be a better year for the well-liked company. As for the course of 2025, it is a bet, as the management of Plastika Thrakis has estimated a 20%-25% shortfall in the group’s EBITDA in the first quarter of 2025 due to energy and raw material costs, while during the annual earnings call, they stated that overall, for this year, operating profitability is expected to return to 2023 levels (44 million euros).

Rally Without Banks is Impossible

Until recently, banks were lagging behind the overperformance of the Athens Stock Exchange, which had been fluctuating in the “zone” of 1,700 – 1,750 points and near 15-year highs. However, the “wave” of financial results from the systemic banks created a climate of euphoria for the sector, which in just two sessions covered more than 100 points and is now just a “breath” away from this year’s peaks. From 1,597.35 points on Thursday, the banking index “climbed” yesterday to 1,714.93 points (a cumulative increase of 7.36%) and is now just 0.42% away from this year’s high – in terms of closing level – of 1,722.09 points, with the next milestone being on November 20, 2015 (1,908 points). Thus, Alpha Bank continued at a strong upward pace, extending its 9-year record and closing at its highest level since May 2016, while other bank stocks continued to rise, with yesterday’s standout being the Bank of Cyprus stock, driven by its financial results and especially the dividend policy it announced.

First Test for the 1,800 Points Successful

Yesterday’s trading session felt like a release party, an explosion of enthusiasm after a long period of anxiety. Recently, the stock market had been accumulating forces and seeking direction. Suddenly, a barrage of positive geopolitical news for our region came, starting from Gaza, moving through the PKK, reaching Moscow, and ending in Brussels. So, with its foot on the gas pedal, the Athens market continued for a second session, taking advantage of the celebratory global mood after the US and China announced a temporary “ceasefire” in their trade war. The last time the market capitalization of the Athens Stock Exchange surpassed 120 billion euros, as it did yesterday, the General Index was close to 4,000 points. Since then, our market has changed, the composition of the Index has changed, the weighting of the recapitalized banking stocks has changed, and the number and quality of assets of listed companies have changed. Therefore, the stock exchange has not simply climbed to levels from 15 years ago; in reality, it is navigating uncharted waters. Thus, studying the past and statistics cannot lead to useful conclusions.

Trump Roars but Still Pays Dearly for His Bonds

The weekend that just passed started off pleasantly, with the “announcement” from the President of the United States that a trade agreement between the US and China was imminent. On Friday, President Trump himself announced that “the 80% tariffs on China seem right.” The Chinese response was immediately made public, saying they “strongly oppose” the abuse of mutual tariffs by the US. On Sunday, it was announced on the White House website that a new trade agreement between the US and China had been made, with no further comments. Immediately afterward, the President himself posted on Truth Social that the “most important and impactful truth statement of all time” was coming. Those who were waiting to read the details of the US-China agreement were disappointed. The statement turned out to be completely unrelated to tariffs. It concerned yet another executive order for reducing drug prices by 30% to 80%. Meanwhile, the yield on the US 10-year government bond is heading closely towards 4.50%. President Trump’s announcements affect the fluctuations of stock markets, but those who lend to the US government do not change their stance. They charge high interest rates on their loans to the US government.