Hello, the situation in the Middle East has been shifting since yesterday, as from Iranian missiles targeting U.S. bases in Qatar we ended up with a ceasefire declared (!) by the planet’s leader late last night. Here in Athens we’re monitoring the situation in our wider region, taking all necessary measures, but that’s as far as it goes. We have no further involvement — and we hope it stays that way.

The Hague dinner

• Beyond the warlike backdrop, this diplomatic arm-wrestling match has another point of interest: today’s NATO Summit in The Hague. The official dinner is scheduled for around 20:00, hosted this year by Queen Maxima and King Willem-Alexander at the Huis ten Bosch palace. The invitation includes spouses, and at midday K.M. will leave Athens to be there on time. Trump, due to yesterday’s developments with Iran, is very likely not to attend. According to the original plan, he was supposed to leave yesterday, but plans changed and he’ll depart this morning (U.S. time), so whether he makes it to the dinner is still “up in the air.” Meanwhile, his motorcade, including the classic armored limousine Beast, arrived yesterday at Amsterdam’s Schiphol airport.

The spending and Erdogan

• A key topic of the Summit, which will take place Wednesday and last only a few hours (so Trump can handle it — he’s famously not a fan of heavy diplomacy), will be the increase of member states’ spending from 2% to 5% by 2035. The 5% isn’t purely defense spending either, but the U.S. president’s message is clear: I asked you to spend more on your common defense, and you did. Otherwise, since this Summit is a “shot glass” in duration, K.M. hasn’t scheduled many bilateral meetings — he’ll obviously have chats over cheese and pears at tonight’s dinner, but he too plans to leave for Brussels Wednesday afternoon. No meeting with Erdogan is on the agenda, unless they have a quick stand-up talk or sit down for five minutes on some couch.

Influencers and podcasts

• On the Summit’s behind-the-scenes, Zelensky has been invited only to the dinner, not to the Summit itself, while NATO has set up lots of opportunities for leaders to give interviews to influencers or podcasters — a sign of where things are heading in the media landscape across Europe.

The frigates off Libya

• Two frigates and a general support ship will be deployed in the coming days off Libya, in an effort to deter the flow of illegal migrants who are leaving Tobruk by the hundreds and heading for Crete. As Pentagon sources say, this is to support the Coast Guard, as well as the Libyan authorities who aren’t exactly coping. Of course, in Benghazi they don’t care much for international law, but more for… common means. Money talks, bullshit walks, as the Americans say — in other words, when money talks, the joking stops. That’s the path the Italians have chosen too, and our country was following it to a point as well, having a line of contact with Haftar.

Around 40 MPs of various parties caught by the “bug” in the OPEKEPE case

• Today or at the latest tomorrow the OPEKEPE case file will be forwarded to Parliament. But I hear the real circus will be with the over 40 MPs from various parties who were caught by the lawful “bugs” of the European prosecutor’s office lobbying for subsidies for their voters. “Check my guy’s application…”, “Add 5-6 tax IDs to the list,” and other such gems!!! On the other hand, I’m told that for the two ministers, Voridis and Avgenakis, there’s nothing major. Especially for the former — same sources say — there are no aggravating elements, at least criminally speaking. He’s being checked for an approval he gave on a decision by the competent department of the agency as part of the artificial solution. All this remains to be seen of course, but if these reports are confirmed, I don’t see indictments or pre-trial committees happening any time soon.

New Pierrakakis policy for the banks

• Let me start the market news with the most interesting: the visit of Unicredit head A. Orcel to Athens. From what I gather from his schedule, this isn’t just a courtesy visit, since besides yesterday’s meetings (Prime Minister, K. Hatzidakis, and G. Stournaras), his visit continues today where Orcel and Alpha Bank CEO V. Psaltis will have a working meeting with Finance Minister Kyriakos Pierrakakis. What’s noteworthy is that at a time when Unicredit is facing major roadblocks from the German government (and from unions and the Commerzbank management) in its attempt to increase its stake in Commerzbank, Athens is welcoming Orcel at the highest level. And another key point: Pierrakakis keeps telling his counterparts about big, strong banks, about the need to create national champions that will play a leading role in the Balkans, etc. Nothing concrete yet, but Pierrakakis’ new banking policy may be a sign of future shakeups.

Grivalia Hospitality: Iphigenia’s suit (and George’s overcoats)

• I can’t imagine what happened that shattered the 20 years of professional partnership between George Chrysikos and Natalia Strafthi in just six months. Actually, in less than six months, since N. Strafthi took over as CEO of Grivalia Hospitality on January 1, 2025. Back then G. Chrysikos had welcomed her appointment saying: “Natalia and I have shared nearly 20 years of professional path, facing challenges, changes and difficulties together. Her contribution to Grivalia’s successes over these years has been crucial. Natalia daily proves her leadership skills, her focus on results, and her dedication to our organization, and in recent years she has devoted herself to developing Grivalia Hospitality. We are all proud of her admirable course.” George’s pride in Natalia came to an end yesterday with her resignation, after a period of tensions and clashes between them at the company. I don’t know why their long relationship fell to pieces, but I guess Natalia, being a smart person, had no appetite to try on Iphigenia’s sacrificial suit or to shoulder the “overcoat” of the Panama island, or of Mykonos or the other Grivalia Hospitality projects. That’s what George Chrysikos was saying six months ago about Natalia, with whom he had walked the same path, but yesterday, when he kicked her out, he didn’t have a single word to say about her. Anyway, people close to Chrysikos told me yesterday that the whole story with Strafthi really hurt him. No matter — I’m sure he’ll get over it.

Foreigners poured 11 billion into the Athens Stock Exchange

• We talk about foreign investment interest in the Athens Stock Exchange, but the Bank of Greece “sees” it in the most tangible way. According to the Monetary Policy Report, the strong increase in demand for Greek securities by international investors has led to an 11-billion-euro rise in positions in Greek stocks since Q1 2023. Including new listings, total funds raised between January and May 2025 reached €531.4 million, compared to €240.8 million in the same period of 2024. Finally, trading activity on the Athens Stock Exchange (average daily turnover) has reached €196 million since the start of 2025, up 35% from the same period in 2024.

“My Home II”: Lots of approvals, few disbursements

• According to figures presented at the HBA General Assembly for the “My Home II” program, only €78.6 million has been disbursed for the period from 15.01.25 to 12.06.25. In the same period, €0.91 billion in loans has been approved for 7,600 applications — about half of the program’s total budget of €2 billion.

Tsamaz walks away with gold in his pockets

• With his bank account well padded, Michalis Tsamaz departed from OTE. Yesterday’s shareholders’ general meeting approved the compensation and benefits he was entitled to, as he completed his term at the end of last July. According to the remuneration report for the board members, the former CEO, in addition to earnings amounting to €2.8 million, received at the termination of his contract a total gross amount of €3.41 million, which includes severance payments due to contract termination and an additional 80% of the compensation for post-contract non-compete obligations, as provided by a private settlement agreement. The remaining 20% of the amount is scheduled to be paid 12 months after the first installment, that is, at the end of the current month. Additionally, there were payments from a long-term incentive plan (LTI) and share matching plan (SMP) of Deutsche Telekom.

The hot investments of SMERemediumCap

• SMERemediumCap, under Nikos Karamouzis, has the knack for spotting promising markets early and positioning itself where soon there’s a boom of investor interest. It all started at an unsuspecting moment in 2021 with the acquisition of Engie Hellas, a subsidiary of the French multinational. This was followed by four more acquisitions that formed and strengthened the Cordia Group, which emerged as the undisputed leader in Greece in facility management — that is, integrated services for maintenance, security, and cleaning. Another sector where SMERemediumCap invested, foreseeing great growth potential, is that of pet care. A subsidiary of SMERemediumCap, the Four Feet Group owns the Plakentia Veterinary Clinic in Agia Paraskevi, recently opened a new clinic in Alimos, operates the Cyclades Veterinary Clinic in Syros, and owns the largest diagnostic lab for pets, Petty Progress, in Volos. At the same time, Four Feet has invested in the Attica Animal Hospital in Paiania, and a few months ago completed its investment in Thessaloniki, opening a large animal hospital — the biggest in the Balkans. Four Feet started with the acquisition of a company with €2 million turnover, and this year is expected to close near €9-10 million, employing 208 people, including 94 doctors and 41 nursing staff.

Outside Cyprus, we’re doing well

• Speaking at yesterday’s general meeting, the president of the Hellenic Bank Association, Gikas Hardouvelis, referred to Greece’s credit rating relative to the banks, noting that Greek banks, according to Moody’s, have a higher rating. The Greek economy has reached investment grade at Baa3, while NBG and Eurobank are rated Baa1, and Alpha Bank and Piraeus Bank at Baa2. The comparison left out Bank of Cyprus, now listed on the Athens Exchange, which Moody’s rates at A3 — the highest rating among Greek and Cypriot banks. Hardouvelis’s speech also revealed some interesting stats, such as that Greek systemic banks have market capitalizations 70 to 100 times smaller than JP Morgan, and that their capitalization represents 31.1% of total market capitalization on the Athens Exchange when including all listed banks (systemic and non-systemic).

Brook Lane Capital seals the deal for Porto Bello on Kos

• Suddenly, Kos has become the new investment craze. Brook Lane Capital, a private equity firm based in Nicosia specializing in distressed assets, chose Kos island. Under Aziz Francis’s leadership, Brook Lane Capital, following successful investments in Elliniko, Attica, and other areas of Greece, set up Ultrablue Hospitality Investments Kardamena with an initial capital of €20 million. This is linked to the Cypriot company Ultrablue Holdings Limited, which has already paid €10 million, with the rest to be paid over the next five years. Reliable sources confirm that the deal to acquire Porto Bello Beach resort in Kardamena was signed. Porto Bello Beach is a four-star all-inclusive resort in a prime location in Kardamena, right on the sea and set within lush gardens. The cash flows suggest more deals will follow on Kos, as Brook Lane Capital has shown sustained interest in the Greek market, including a 70% stake in the landmark mixed-use tower development at Elliniko in partnership with Lamda Development.

A racetrack for Thessaloniki

• Foreign investment interest has emerged in Thessaloniki for the creation of a modern racetrack that would avoid Athens’ mistakes — namely the move from Faliro to Markopoulo — and establish a new economic and tourism landmark. Thessaloniki was once, in the late Roman period, a hub for horse and chariot racing. Its famous Hippodrome, the “Circus Maximus” of its era, was not just a sports venue but also a political center where the populace communicated with the emperor and voiced support or dissatisfaction. Today’s proposal for a new racetrack in Thessaloniki is a far more down-to-earth economic project but aligns with major investment activity around the city’s port and investor Telis Mystakidis’s wish to help create a new, ultra-modern stadium for PAOK — with all that entails for regional development. On June 20, 2025, the general assembly of the Hellenic Horse Racing Authority (FEE) unanimously decided to recommend the immediate publication of a call for expressions of interest for a racetrack operating license in Thessaloniki. FEE, a public-law entity, is the official regulatory authority for horse racing in Greece.

Ports in the spotlight — 5 binding bids unsealed

• At noon today, the five binding bids submitted to the Superfund for acquiring a majority stake (50% + 1 share) in the Lavrio Port Authority — the third largest port in Attica — will be unsealed. This stage will verify the legal documents and supporting materials of the five bids. Immediately afterward, at a special board session, the financial offers will be opened to select the winning bidder. The race among the five contenders (GEK TERNA-Celestyal, INTERKAT S.A. with Beaufort Sea Shipping, Olympic Marine S.A. with Cruise Terminal Investment Ltd Sarl, Israel Shipyards Industries Ltd., and Jet Plan Shipping Co Ltd) is considered a significant success given current market conditions. Interest in the country’s ports seems broad and growing. Yesterday, amid a flood of war-related news, the stock market moved cautiously except, of course, for Piraeus Port (+3.26% at €44.4) and Thessaloniki Port (+1.19% at €34), which stood out like a fly in the milk. Reliable sources also report revived investor interest in Alexandroupoli Port. The government is receiving signals from the West about the port’s strategic value — it’s on the city’s outskirts, already has a rail connection, and offers an alternative freight route that bypasses geopolitical chokepoints.

Waiting for the… surprise from MSCI

• This afternoon MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International) will announce its 2025 market classification review. Most of our market participants believe it’s still too soon for Greece. However, analysts at Eurobank Equities seem to think otherwise. An interesting report by Andreas Souvleros suggests Greece is now very close to overcoming the last hurdle for inclusion on the watch list of developed markets: the size and liquidity test. MSCI has raised its thresholds to €5.7 billion full market cap and €2.9 billion free float adjusted. The requirement is for at least five stocks to meet both thresholds over the past eight index reviews. MSCI keeps its evaluation dates confidential to prevent market manipulation. Eurobank Equities believes about 50% of trading days in the last 10 working days of October 2024 saw OTE, OPAP, Eurobank, NBG, Alpha, PPC, Metlen, and Piraeus meet the criteria — so they don’t rule out that Greece may finally qualify and join the upgrade watch list.

Calm with clouds over the stock market

• There was no mood for celebration of course — but no panic either. There was no appetite for opening new positions, but neither for mass sell-offs. Both in Europe and the US, markets moved cautiously and carefully, without violent swings. Even global oil prices, which had spiked +5% over the weekend, had by yesterday afternoon returned to Friday’s levels as if that explosive — literally — Saturday night had never happened. On the Athens Exchange, the day’s battles were fought around the 1,800-point fortress. While Germany’s DAX showed -0.45%, Athens had already clawed back its -1% losses at 1,784 points and closed at the session’s high of 1,818.82 (+0.93%). This rally came late in the day, after everyone was sure no more bombshells would hit before nightfall. Naturally, turnover stayed low at €146.2 million with €22.3 million in block trades. Alpha Bank stood out with €33.7 million turnover, gaining +4.62% at €2.85. Piraeus Bank boldly tapped markets with a €400 million MREL bond that saw strong oversubscription, and the stock celebrated with +2.75% at €5.6. Coca Cola (-1.18%) was dragged down by London’s caution and offered no help, while TITAN (+2.51%) surpassed €38.8. Gains over +1% for Eurobank, HelleniQ Energy, ElvalHalcor, and OPAP, while Motor Oil, Optima Bank, Metlen, Cenergy, GEK TERNA, EYDAP, Viohalco, Jumbo, Bank of Cyprus, NBG, and Aktor moved up modestly but positively.

In Japan, cost of money rises without rate hikes

• Until last year, the Bank of Japan was buying about 400 billion yen of bonds annually. This year, to avoid raising base rates for the yen, it halved its bond purchases. This forced commercial banks not to buy dollar assets and instead snap up the bonds the BOJ no longer acquires. The official data is stunning: BOJ bond holdings fell by ¥6.2 trillion in Q1 2025 — the biggest drop in its history. Over the past five quarters, the BOJ has trimmed its balance sheet by ¥14.2 trillion. In total, the BOJ holds government bonds, ETFs, and REITs equal to 117% of Japan’s GDP.