Hello, I don’t know if the classic saying that “markets always tell the truth” really applies now, but let’s hope so, since at least yesterday the world’s stock markets seemed to act as if the ceasefire in the Middle East is taken for granted. Everything moves a bit faster and… infinitely more clumsy because of Trump in our times, but anyway, it looks like it’s heading that way. If you, too, were left wondering why all this happened, if Iran really had nuclear weapons and how advanced they were, I don’t know. The regime with the mullahs, anyway, doesn’t seem to be falling, but we’ll see.

The rumors about Kimberly are not true…
-Since we’re on matters of international (but also Greek) interest, yesterday a rumor circulated that Kimberly will not come to Greece as the U.S. Ambassador. The rumor is absolutely false, my source (outside the country) assured me — it’s just that hearings in Washington are delayed before U.S. ambassadors worldwide get approval from the relevant committees. “Don’t forget that Tsounis took a whole year to come to Athens after Biden was elected,” my source reminded me.

Hard core
-Now, K.M., who arrived yesterday at the NATO Summit (accompanied by Gerapetritis, Dendias, and associates from Maximos Mansion), has a key argument at today’s Hague Summit. Greece doesn’t need to do much to increase its contribution to the Alliance, as it belongs to the “hard core” countries and already spends almost 3% of its GDP on armaments, a percentage that will gradually rise due to the escape clause, as well as a huge 25 billion euro arms plan over the next 12 years. And despite Erdogan’s efforts to wedge in, being a predictable partner in this case is not bad, because you don’t get targeted by the planet’s boss.

The case file…
-On Tuesday noon the OPEKEPE case file was transferred by the Supreme Court to the Ministry of Justice and today it’s expected to reach and be announced in the Parliament plenary. Of course, during the previous period, a flood of info about its contents was “circulated” and “passed around” in the parliamentary corridors. The main conclusion among those who have even fragmentary knowledge of the file is that there are no or very weak indications of involvement by Voridis – Avgenakis that would justify a preliminary investigation. Of course, we’ll see about all this, but I’m tempted to repeat the assessment I gave you yesterday from the same source: once MPs are allowed to read the file and it starts to become public knowledge, interest won’t focus on the two ministers. It will focus on the wiretapped conversations caught by EYP’s legal bug between OPEKEPE leadership and dozens of MPs. What can I say, farmers and livestock breeders are about 750,000 families and almost as many votes.

The PASOK storm and…
-This rumor about MPs appearing in conversations requesting priority payments for their voters from OPEKEPE funds has caused a big storm inside PASOK too. Charilaou Trikoupi has 4 MPs elected in Crete, a region apparently at the heart of the European prosecutor’s investigation, and does not exclude the possibility that the rumor will be confirmed by the case file contents. They emphasize, however, that parliamentary offices intervening for timely payments to legal beneficiaries raises neither political nor legal issues. And honestly, they’re not wrong. They add though that if — and that’s a big if — interventions and pressure occurred to unblock suspicious tax IDs, there will be serious party penalties including decapitations.

… Voridis’ 3,500 tax IDs
-At the same time, Voridis’ side has prepared its own dossier to respond to what various recent reports “charge” him with. I hear, for example, that during his time at the Ministry of Rural Development, 3,500 “suspicious” tax IDs were identified and sent for investigation on suspicion of abuse of EU funds. As for the famous technical solution, it is said to have been steadily applied since 2015, is known to the EU, has political backing and legal foundation, and prevented loss of EU subsidies for thousands of livestock farmers. The need for the technical solution — they say — arose for two reasons: due to the risk of losing 9 million stremmas from eligible grazing lands in Greece — which would cause loss of subsidies for thousands of livestock breeders — and due to the non-completion of the Grazing Management Plans (D.S.V.). The legal framework for D.S.V. was voted in 2015 but had not been activated by 2020. Voridis started the process, signed the contracts between Ministry and Regions so the latter would launch the respective tenders. To date, no Grazing Management Plan has been completed, but that’s another story politically weighing on other people.

Calm lost
-Alarm bells rang in M.M. and the Ministry of Infrastructure from leaks in the press by the management of Elliniko Metro against AVAX regarding Line 4. I honestly don’t recall a similar precedent. Apart from the extra-institutional nature of it, these tensions do anything but favor the calm waters the government wants for big projects, so they finish on schedule and resources aren’t lost.

The DEI – OTE beef
-DEI’s entry into telecommunications, and especially in the most dynamic segment, FTTH (fiber to the home) services, not only gave new life to a rather… stagnant market, but also stirred tensions among companies in the sector. The new player (DEI) mainly threatens the old and stronger one (OTE), since in such cases the one with the biggest market share will potentially suffer the biggest customer losses. The clash — or, as the youngsters would say, the beef — between the two sides is now obvious, and most questions concern OTE as it is called to respond. That happened at OTE’s general assembly the day before yesterday when one of the first shareholder questions was how OTE will react, among other things, to DEI’s aggressive pricing policy. Kostas Nempis said OTE respects every competitor but fears no one, while in the informal chats afterwards OTE officials said the company has strong defenses: most customers (over 70%) have bundled packages, with commercial policies (Magenta, etc.) subscribers will have more and more offers, the network is underground so less exposed to natural disasters, etc. Moreover, OTE doesn’t seem to believe DEI’s fiber prices — sometimes 50-60% lower than competitors’ — will hold for long, which remains to be seen. Also, OTE frowns upon many staff leaving Maroussi and heading towards Chalkokondyli… On DEI’s side, they say their fast internet packages starting at a very competitive 17.90 euros have already made a splash and will pressure other companies to lower retail prices. They predict DEI Fiber Grid’s network will grow rapidly, since it is mostly aerial and takes less time to deploy than underground, will soon cover many more areas adequately, and, as it’s said, sooner or later they’ll add bundled electricity + internet packages. And there’s more to come.

Celebratory Greek Day in Paris — Banking stocks at 2015 levels
-The stock board showed it at yesterday’s session, and those who took part in BNP’s roadshow in Paris experienced it first-hand. The atmosphere at Greek Day, held in the French capital with participation from the 4 systemic banks and the Greek Debt Management Office, was extremely positive. Analysts believe geopolitical risk is shrinking and Greece — despite currently high prices — is seen as an opportunity due to higher growth and alternative revenue streams banks can develop through acquisitions in Greece and abroad. Questions hardly touched on macroeconomics, with analysts focusing on dividend policy consistency and credit expansion. Among investors present were Citadel, Caisse des Dépôts, BNP, AXIOM, HSBC, Canada Pension Plan, Rothschild. The investment enthusiasm for banks also showed on the stock board, where the sector index closed yesterday at a new 10-year high, raising its annual return to +51.3%, starting the year at 1,286 points and now standing at 1,945 points. In fact, it hasn’t seen a higher close since November 19, 2015, at 2,304 points. Following the multi-year record trend, three of the four systemic banks performed strongly: National Bank rose above 11 euros for the first time since November 27, 2015; Eurobank (2.877 euros) closed at its highest price since November 9 the same year; and Alpha Bank came within a breath of 3 euros but closed at its highest since November 24, 2015. Piraeus Bank could have followed suit if not for the capital return of 0.298 euros per share. Alpha Bank is up +84.9% this year, followed by Piraeus Bank at +52.1%, NBG at +47.3%, and Eurobank at +29%. Eurobank and NBG’s market caps have surpassed 10 billion euros, while Piraeus and Alpha Bank’s exceed 7 billion euros each. Altogether, the six bank stocks represent a market cap of about 40.77 billion euros — roughly 32% of the total Athens Stock Exchange capitalization.