Futures for internationally sourced Brent oil futures rose to about $80 per barrel after the US attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordo, according to a report by Citi.

Subsequently, Iran retaliated against a US base in Qatar, but tensions soon subsided, as the White House announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel and that China could continue to buy Iranian oil, with Brent oil futures falling to around $67 per barrel.

In Citi’s view, the market appears to be pricing in a sharp reduction in geopolitical risks, although the next period may continue to be challenging. Downward oil price fundamentals, particularly from Q3 onwards, will again be the focus of the market, even if OPEC+ meets in early July to decide how much oil to throw back into the market in August.

On that basis, Citi forecasts Brent oil futures to move $66 per barrel in Q3 and to $63 per barrel in Q4.