Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet today at Elmendorf Air Force Base in Anchorage, Alaska, in a one-on-one meeting — already deemed historic — scheduled to begin at about 11:30 a.m. local time (10:30 p.m. Athens time).

If there is one thing the American president is not known for, it is a sense of restraint. Yet he is trying to lower expectations, despite his earlier claim that he would end the war in Ukraine on his first day in office.

The 79-year-old Republican, who says he wants to “sound out” his Russian counterpart, predicted on Wednesday that there are two possible outcomes:

• If the meeting goes well, there will “almost immediately” be a three-way summit with himself, Putin, and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky to end the war that began in February 2022 with the Russian army’s invasion.
• But if his first face-to-face meeting with the Kremlin chief since 2019 goes badly, the tycoon warns there will be “no second” meeting.

On Wednesday, Europeans were working to influence the mood in which Trump — known for his highly changeable temperament — will sit down with Putin.

The summit is clearly not a peace conference. For the Ukrainian president and Europeans, the main concern is to prevent Anchorage from becoming a kind of Yalta — the historic February 1945 meeting where the U.S., U.K., and Soviet Union divided territories and spheres of influence.

The past

Analysts are wondering which Trump will show up: the hard-line version or the real-estate mogul who in the past sought the favor of the former KGB officer.

From flattery to irritation mixed with disappointment — and even insults — Trump has been unrestrained in his comments about Putin since starting his second term.

“I don’t know if Putin wants to (make peace), maybe not. (But) he should,” Trump said on his first day back in the White House. “I’ve always had a very good relationship with Putin,” he said then.

The flattery was mutual: “He’s not only smart, he’s also a realist,” the Russian leader said on January 24.

Since then, however, Trump’s tone toward Putin has shifted constantly — from “He’s gone completely CRAZY!” in late May, to “I’m not really interested in talking to him anymore” in Scotland on July 28. But yesterday afternoon, Thursday, he gave a 75% chance of success for his meeting with the Russian leader.

For Trump, the lure of striking a deal is strong. He is openly campaigning for this year’s Nobel Peace Prize, citing what he presents as his diplomatic victories, and has unsettled U.S. allies with his eagerness for a Ukraine peace deal.

Observers say Trump appears torn: on one hand, tempted to make bold, even vague announcements that would allow him to present himself as a “peacemaker,” and on the other hand, determined not to be seen as “Putin’s poodle” — the nickname given to him by opponents after the 2018 Helsinki summit, when his stance alarmed allies and provoked outrage in the U.S. by siding with Putin over U.S. intelligence agencies on Russian interference in the 2016 election.

Although Putin agreed to a private meeting, Moscow has kept quiet in recent days. On Thursday, Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov said Putin and Trump would discuss the “vast untapped potential” of U.S.–Russia economic relations, as well as prospects for ending the war in Ukraine.

Hopes, reservations, and consequences

The question of possible territorial concessions is particularly sensitive, as the Russian military gains ground in Ukraine. Moscow demands four partially occupied regions — Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson — in addition to Crimea, annexed in 2014. These demands are unacceptable to Kyiv. Trump has promised to speak to Zelensky and the Europeans after meeting Putin.

The outcome could have serious consequences for European leaders, who fear that if Russia is allowed to absorb parts of Ukraine, it will become more aggressive toward NATO allies near its borders, such as Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia.

It is even more critical for Ukraine, which has been losing territory to Russian forces after three and a half years of heavy fighting.

Kremlin watchers are eager to see whether Trump will once again be charmed by Putin and persuaded by his argument that Russia has the right to dominate Ukraine.

Russia has given no indication it is willing to make concessions.

On Thursday, Putin said the U.S. government was making “sincere efforts” to resolve the Ukraine conflict and hinted that Moscow and Washington might reach an agreement on nuclear arms control.

But later that day, the Kremlin warned against predicting the summit’s outcome. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said there are no plans to sign any documents afterward.

The venue itself carries symbolism. Alaska was sold by Russia to the U.S., and Elmendorf Air Force Base in Anchorage played a key role in World War II. Its strategic importance peaked during the Cold War, especially amid rising interest in the Arctic.

“Even if I got Moscow and Leningrad for free in a deal with Russia, the fake news media would say I made a bad deal,” Trump said angrily days ago in response to reports about the Alaska summit.

Leningrad — the name Soviet authorities gave the former imperial capital — reverted to St. Petersburg in 1991, shortly before the official dissolution of the USSR.