The UBS, in its latest analysis of Greece, maintains an overall positive stance on the economy‘s performance, despite minor revisions to GDP forecasts. As it notes, the three main drivers of growth – consumption, investment led by European resources and tourism – continue to fuel activity, while risks are mainly focused on exogenous factors.

In its analysis, UBS does not leave out the banking sector. The four systemic banks maintain a Buy recommendation, with a particular focus on Piraeus, which it describes as a “top pick”, giving a target price of €7.60. For Alpha Bank the target is at 3.70 euros, for Eurobank at 3.64 euros, while for National Bank at 13.40 euros, with emphasis on its high capital flexibility (CET1 18.9%).

UBS notes that the credit expansion rate (+17% y/y in Q2) is among the highest in Europe and, combined with falling risk costs, is boosting profitability. Despite the significant upside, valuations remain attractive, with a P/TNAV ratio between 1.0x and 1.4x and returns on equity (ROTE) in the 13%-18% range over 2025-26.

UBS forecasts 2025 GDP to grow by2.3% (up from 2.6% in the previous estimate), while for 2026 it upgrades the forecast to2.4% (from 2.3%). The revision for this year is mainly related to the weak start in Q1, where the economy posted zero quarterly growth, and the burden expected from increased US tariffs on the eurozone.