Surplus primary surplus, estimated to reach or even exceed 10 billion euros this year, is seen by the government. For the second year in a row, after a record 11.4 billion in 2024, high primary surpluses create new fiscal space. The combination of tax revenue overperformance and spending manoeuvres paves the way for a larger “basket” of benefits than the €1.5 billion, which can be presented both at the TIF in September and in the spring of 2026 with a new package.

The latest figures for the seven months of January-July already show a primary surplus of €7.96 billion, more than double the target of €3.6 billion and well above the €5.66 billion of the corresponding period in 2024. The overall balance shows a surplus of €2.18 billion, when a deficit of €1.96 billion was forecast.

On the revenue side, the picture is clear: net revenue reached 42.9 billion euros, with tax revenues yielding 40.5 billion euros, 2.3 billion euros more than forecast. VAT and income tax recorded a significant overperformance, while the fight against tax evasion through POS and myDATA, which is expected to yield more than €3 billion this year, plays a key role.

Tax refunds stood at 5.05 billion euros, an amount that includes the VAT refund from the Attiki Odos contract, which is fiscally burdened in 2024. If deducted, refunds are 4.26 billion, up 252 million against the target. On the flip side, Public Investment Program revenues were €2.35 billion, down €203 million, while revenues from the Recovery Fund reached €1.34 billion.

On the expenditure side, the seven-month period ended with €40.67 billion, down €3.33 billion against target but up €1.35 billion year-on-year. The deviation from the target was mainly due to the timing of payments: €2.21 billion of transfers and €605 million of arms programs were delayed. 

Interest expenditure was €5.86 billion, at a manageable level, while investment expenditure amounted to €6.13 billion, almost on target and higher than last year. At the financial level, receipts reached 983 billion euros and payments 981 billion euros, showing balance in debt management.

The economic staff’s estimate is that the primary surplus will exceed 4% of GDP for the second year. This creates fiscal space of more than 2 billion euros, with government sources talking about a “twin package” of benefits: one to be announced at the TIF and a second in spring 2026.

A crucial point is the negotiations with Brussels. With the new fiscal rules emphasizing not the size of the surplus but the spending “ceilings”, Greece already has €1.5 billion room for permanent measures from 2026, thanks also to the exemption of defense spending. If the revenue overperformance is shown to be structural rather than cyclical, this space could be increased by €300-500 million.