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The haggling over security guarantees in Ukraine brings Turkey back to the negotiating table

Why Ankara's involvement in the conflict termination process is being promoted and how Erdogan intends to exploit this "opportunity"

Newsroom August 20 08:55

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In yet another effort to upgrade Turkey‘s geostrategic role and deepen the strategic relationship with Europe, Turkey’s involvement in the processes of ending the conflict in Ukraine is being promoted, with a role in process of providing security guarantees in Ukraine.

Security guarantees for Ukraine are an important part of the ongoing discussions and consultations, as at the moment it seems to have been ruled out, including by US President Donald Trump, the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO, which is a “red line” for Moscow.

President Trump himself, in his remarks after Alaska and his meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders at the White House, said there would be strong security guarantees for Ukraine. However, he appeared to reject sending U.S. forces as a peacekeeping force to the region to guarantee Ukraine’s security and oversee the implementation of any peace agreement.

The Europeans realize that the heavy burden of security guarantees will fall on their own shoulders, and this is a serious responsibility for which they are looking for “partners” to take on.

They seem to want to assign this role to Turkey, which in the past has declared itself ready and willing to deploy forces to settle in Ukraine, touting the advantage of Ankara’s good relations with both Moscow and Kiev.

The debate even appeared to be opened by French President Emmanuel Macron, who in remarks in Washington said that after a trilateral meeting between Trump, Putin and Zelensky, an expanded meeting should be convened with the participation of the Europeans and Turkey.

On Tuesday afternoon, NATO Secretary General M. Rutte had a phone call with President Erdogan and the Turkish presidency’s statement is revealing about the content of the ongoing consultations. The Turkish presidency says that Erdogan and the NATO Secretary General “mentioned Turkey’s important role in the peace process in Ukraine and in the security of the Black Sea and agreed on the contribution of Turkey, one of the most important NATO countries, to the peace process and on close coordination. They also exchanged views on feasible and sustainable security guarantees.”

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The teleconference of the “Alliance of the Willing” held on Tuesday was attended by Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Sevdet Yilmaz, representing President Erdogan, who expressed Turkey’s readiness to contribute with its forces to the peace process in Ukraine.

Immediately after the Alaska and White House meetings, there was a barrage of diplomatic contacts with Turkey that intensified these scenarios. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov contacted his Turkish counterpart Hakhan Fidan, who also had a phone call with U.S. Secretary of State M. Rubio. H. Fidan also had telephone conversations with his German and British counterparts, J. Vanderfull and N. Lammy, to assess the situation in Ukraine after the latest summits.

Turkey is clearly invested in the role it is willing to play in security guarantees in a peace process in Ukraine, including by sending forces on its territory, in order to restore a strong functional relationship with US President Trump and at the same time strengthen its relationship with Europe. This comes at a time when processes are also underway to develop the European Defence, in which Ankara wants to be directly involved, including through the Turkish defence industry. Most importantly, however, it seeks to highlight what Erdogan and Turkish diplomacy often argue: that Turkey is a valuable and irreplaceable partner for Europe’s collective security.

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