The far-right and the Greens have already made clear they will vote against him. The Socialists – whose votes are considered crucial for Bayrou’s political survival – stressed that it would be very difficult for them to support him unless he radically changes course on the budget issue, something considered highly unlikely.

If the government loses in the National Assembly, it will fall. Political uncertainty has already sparked concern in the markets: France’s borrowing costs over Germany rose by five basis points, reaching the highest level since mid-June, while the CAC-40 index fell by 1.6%.

President Emmanuel Macron would then have three options: appoint a new prime minister, ask Bayrou to remain as caretaker, or call early elections. It is worth noting that Bayrou’s predecessor, Michel Barnier, lost parliament’s confidence at the end of 2024, after just three months in office.

Bayrou himself admitted he is taking a political risk, stressing that “it is even more dangerous to do nothing” in the face of the enormous public debt. The vote of confidence, he explained, will show whether he has enough support for the €44 billion package of measures aimed at reducing the deficit, which last year reached 5.8% of GDP – nearly double the EU limit.

Even if he wins, the real test will be the approval of the budget itself later in the year. Among the measures proposed are the abolition of two public holidays, a freeze on social spending, and the decision not to adjust tax brackets to inflation.

The far-right, the Greens, and the radical left have already positioned themselves clearly against the government, while the Socialists leave open the possibility of dialogue only if there are changes. “The Prime Minister remains stubbornly immovable,” said party spokesman Arthur Delaporte.

The crucial vote will take place just two days before the planned demonstrations on September 10, which are already being compared to the “Yellow Vest” movement that shook France in 2018.

But what is the September 10 movement?

The September 10 movement is similar to the “Yellow Vests,” having emerged through social media. Without leaders or a formal structure, it began to grow about a month ago – from Bayrou’s first address – gaining traction online. Its central demand is to block the approval of a budget that does not simply propose cuts of a few million, but €44 billion, a proposal opposed even by some of the most conservative political and economic circles in the country.

Prime Minister Bayrou may have emphasized that France’s public deficit grows by €12 million every hour of the day, but the French are firmly against the cuts, especially in health and education. They underline that the policies of Macron and Bayrou will not pass this time. For September 10, the movement has called on all unions and professional sectors to join a “peaceful nationwide protest,” stating on its social media accounts that the goal is to “paralyze everything in the country.”

Macron’s options and another deadlock

President Macron, who in July 2024 took the politically risky step of calling elections after the far-right’s sweeping victory in the European elections, has not respected the popular vote. While the Constitution of the Fifth Republic gives the President the right to appoint the Prime Minister, it was politically “unusual” for Macron not to choose someone from the winning side of the ballot – the Left Alliance.

If the Bayrou government collapses, as now seems likely, Macron will again have the option of asking him to stay on in a transitional capacity, appointing a new prime minister – though his political pool has few figures of broad acceptance left – or calling fresh elections, a move even riskier than the one a year ago.

In any case, although France has not recently been in the global spotlight – partly due to broader international turmoil – it is clearly not on the right path. The data shows an escalating political and social crisis, one that will be very difficult for the French President to maneuver his way out of this time.