On September 8, French Prime Minister François Bayrou will submit his government to a confidence vote in the National Assembly. What happens if the government is rejected? What about the 2026 Budget? Could Emmanuel Macron dissolve parliament? Below is a breakdown of the scenarios.

The confidence vote procedure

François Bayrou will once again outline the key directions of his fiscal policy before the French National Assembly. A debate will follow, then a vote under Article 49, paragraph 1 of the French Constitution (Fifth Republic). To bring down the government, only an absolute majority of votes cast is needed—a far riskier procedure than the infamous Article 49.3, which requires at least 289 votes against the government.

If the government secures confidence, it effectively wins the green light for its deficit-reduction plan. If not, Bayrou will—under Article 50 of the Constitution—be required to submit his government’s resignation to the President.

With far-right and left-wing parties already declaring opposition, the numbers appear stacked against the Prime Minister: 264 votes against versus only 210 for the government camp (Renaissance, Republicans, MoDem, and Horizons).

The announced cuts

Bayrou has already unveiled a tough package of fiscal measures aimed at reducing the deficit below 3% of GDP by 2027. Measures include restrictions on public spending in health and education, cuts to fuel subsidies, and the gradual reduction of certain social benefits.

These announcements have triggered strong reactions from trade unions and civic groups, warning that lower-income households will bear the heaviest burden. The cuts exceed €44 billion in total, and Bayrou, through two national addresses within 48 hours, has summed up the stakes of the next 13 days in the terse but telling phrase: “chaos or responsibility.”

If the government falls

Should the government be voted down, it would be reduced to handling only current affairs until Macron appoints a new Prime Minister. Such a scenario has occurred only twice before in the Fifth Republic: in 1962 with Georges Pompidou and in December 2024 with Michel Barnier’s government collapse.

The President then faces two options: dissolve the National Assembly and call fresh elections, or appoint a new Prime Minister with the same fragmented parliament—leaving any future cabinet equally vulnerable to a no-confidence motion.

The September 10 movement

Meanwhile, unions and social movements have called for a nationwide mobilization on September 10, just two days after the critical vote. Demonstrations are expected to focus squarely on the planned cuts and to fuel a wave of social discontent.

Many analysts compare the emerging protests to the 2018 “Yellow Vests” movement: then, as now, the spark was a sense of economic injustice and household pressures on the middle and working classes. Although organizers are seeking to avoid the spontaneous and fragmented nature that marked the 2018 protests, the underlying anger appears to be resurging.

The future of the 2026 Budget

A government collapse would automatically kill the current draft budget. A new Prime Minister could present an alternative. But if no government is formed by the end of 2025, the outgoing cabinet could submit a special law to extend the 2025 budget.

If even that mechanism were rejected, France would face an unprecedented “shutdown” scenario—similar to the U.S.—with no approved budget. In such an extreme, though unlikely, case, the President could invoke Article 16 of the Constitution, allowing him to govern without parliamentary approval.

Macron’s options

If Bayrou’s government falls, President Macron has three main choices:

1. Dissolve the National Assembly and call snap elections, creating a new political balance for appointing the next Prime Minister.
2. Appoint a new Prime Minister under the current fragmented parliament, risking ongoing instability and repeated no-confidence votes.
3. In extreme circumstances, invoke Article 16 of the Constitution, temporarily granting him sweeping powers to ensure the functioning of the state until parliamentary stability is restored.