A double crash test for the Greek economy will run later this week: On the one hand, negotiations are starting with representatives of the European Commission on the draft state budget for 2026 to be submitted to the Parliament on October 6, and on the other hand, the arrival of the Commission’s mission to Athens is scheduled to discuss the progress of the National Recovery Plan.

These two fronts are closely linked, as they will judge both the final forecasts for the economy and progress on the milestones remaining until the end of the programme in 2026.

In consultations with Brussels, the Greek side – with the entire economic staff present – will present revised estimates for this year’s fiscal outcome. The primary surplus is also higher than the updated forecasts, moving to 3.5% to 4% of GDP against a target of 3.2%. Interest turns to the growth and inflation estimates that will be reflected in the new budget.

The ELSTAT data show a slowdown: GDP grew 1.7% in the second quarter of 2025 from 2.2% in the first. The rate at which the year ends and is written into the draft will be decided by this week’s discussions. The Bank of Greece revised its forecast, seeing growth of 2.2% this year (instead of 2.3%), falling to 1.9% in 2026, and recovering to 2.1% in 2027. On inflation, the forecast rises to 3.1% (harmonised index), due to wage increases, rents, tourism demand, and indirect taxes.

At the same time, the institutions return to Athens to audit the Recovery Fund. The program ends in September 2026 and less than 200 milestones remain. On the agenda will be those that need to be completed, rewritten or replaced to meet the timetables.

The 6th request for the loan leg, which had been moved to September, appears to be delayed again. Contracts have been limited and home loans are facing obstacles due to property transfers. The goal is to sign 14.33 billion euros of loans by June 30, 2026, when only 7.5 billion has been signed so far.

The next big step is the 7th request, which is scheduled to be filed in November. This is a package totalling €3.5 billion, of which €1.7 billion is for grants and €1.8 billion is for loans. To be approved, Greece will have to meet 28 milestones, which include reforms but also specific investment projects. The burden is significant, as the disbursement of new funds and maintaining the momentum of the programme depend on meeting these conditions.

This will be followed by the 8th request in February 2026 with 30 targets and the 9th, final request in September 2026 with 136 milestones and targets.