This Sunday, Moldovan citizens are called to decide the future of their country in a crucial electoral contest. Their vote will determine whether the nation of 2.4 million people will continue on its path toward EU membership or return to Moscow’s sphere of influence, amid extensive reports of Russian interference.

President Maia Sandu and the ruling Action and Solidarity Party (PAS), which holds a parliamentary majority, are facing a tough challenge from the Patriotic Electoral Bloc — an alliance of pro-Russian forces nostalgic for the Soviet era, led by former president Igor Dodon, whom Sandu defeated in 2020.

“The results of these elections will determine the country’s future not only for the next four years, but for many decades,” said Igor Grosu, head of PAS and a close ally of Sandu, who is expected to become prime minister if the party maintains its majority.

According to the Guardian, polls show that PAS is likely to remain the largest party, but it could lose its outright majority, with the Patriotic Bloc running very close behind. In that case, smaller parties could play a decisive role. The “Alternative” bloc — led by Chișinău’s mayor Ion Ceban and former presidential candidate Alexandru Stoianoglo — seeks to attract disillusioned centrist voters. Although it presents itself as pro-European, critics argue that it acts as the Kremlin’s “Trojan horse.”

In Moldova, power is shared between the directly elected president and a prime minister appointed by Parliament. The president sets foreign policy, while the government manages day-to-day administration. If PAS loses, Sandu may be forced to share power with Dodon, who has been under house arrest on corruption charges.

Sandu’s legacy

A former World Bank official, Sandu was elected in 2020 on a wave of anti-corruption sentiment and has made European integration a strategic priority. Last October, Moldovans narrowly approved via referendum the enshrinement of EU membership as a constitutional goal, while Sandu herself was re-elected for another four years.

“It’s a credibility test for Sandu,” commented a European diplomat in Chișinău. “No one knows what kind of country Moldova will be on Monday.”

Russian interference and Western concerns

Since gaining independence in 1991, Moldova has swung between pro-European and pro-Russian orientations. Following Sandu’s election, Moscow has been accused of intensifying its efforts to undermine her government. Authorities say billions of dollars have been funneled into parties, propaganda, and vote-buying schemes.

Last week, 250 raids and arrests were carried out as part of an investigation into a Russian-led plot to incite unrest. A Reuters investigation revealed that dozens of priests were paid by Russian networks to urge their congregations to turn against PAS.

Russia’s foreign intelligence service (SVR) claimed that NATO forces were preparing to seize Moldova in the event of electoral fraud — allegations unsupported by evidence but highlighting Moscow’s anxieties. A Western official stated that Moldova has become “the top priority of Russian foreign policy after Ukraine.”

International stakes

The EU and major European capitals are closely monitoring the election. Government representatives from France, Germany, and Poland visited Chișinău in September to support Moldova’s pro-European ambitions. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, speaking at the UN General Assembly, warned: “Europe cannot afford to lose Moldova as well.”

The weak economy

Despite Sandu’s ambitions, the economy remains the country’s Achilles’ heel. Inflation is high, emigration continues, and growth is sluggish. In 2022, Gazprom cut gas supplies by one third and doubled prices — a move widely seen as political retaliation.

The war in Ukraine worsened the situation: Moldova, just a few hours from Odesa, received more refugees per capita than any other country, putting severe strain on its healthcare system and infrastructure. Inflation soared to 40% as trade with Moscow and Kyiv collapsed.