Ursula von der Leyen will face a second no-confidence motion in less than three months next week. Despite growing criticism, centrist MEPs are expected to choose stability over ousting her.

Although many MEPs — including from the center-right European People’s Party (EPP), to which von der Leyen belongs — are becoming increasingly critical of her leadership, they are more likely to use Monday’s plenary debate to air their grievances rather than side with other forces, who are pushing to remove her in Thursday’s vote.

“There are many reasons to criticize Ursula von der Leyen,” said Erik Marquardt, head of the German Greens in the European Parliament, speaking to Politico. “But we don’t believe that a successor would necessarily be better than the current Commission president.”

It is unprecedented for the EU leadership to face two no-confidence motions in such a short period (the previous one was in July). This not only highlights the growing influence of political extremes using such procedures to create turmoil but also the anxiety prevailing in Brussels and across Europe over the direction of the Commission under von der Leyen.

On October 9, two separate no-confidence votes will take place: one tabled by the right-wing Patriots for Europe group and another by The Left, which positions itself even further left than the Socialists & Democrats.

The European Parliament has 719 MEPs. Removing von der Leyen requires a two-thirds majority of those voting. The Patriots, The Left, and another right-wing group (ESN) together hold 158 seats — well short of the required number unless part of the center joins them.

Although there are signs that centrist MEPs are becoming more critical, according to Politico’s conversations with 11 MEPs and parliamentary officials, this trend is not strong enough to topple her.

The two groups that submitted the motions in Strasbourg accuse the Commission president of weakening the EU, lacking transparency, poor judgment on trade deals with the U.S. and Latin America, her stance on Gaza, abandoning farmers, and undermining climate rules.

Even the Socialists, the Renew liberals, the Greens, and the EPP — who supported her election — are now voicing discontent with several of her decisions.

Internal reactions

Many within her own party still object to her surprise announcement that the EU would cut ties with Israel and propose sanctions over the invasion of Gaza — a decision not communicated in advance.

“Sometimes it’s hard to ‘swallow’ her actions,” said an EPP official. Another EPP MEP noted that von der Leyen is facing “growing opposition” within national party delegations.

What seems to bother all political groups is the sense that von der Leyen is pursuing an agenda in collaboration with national governments, bypassing the European Parliament.

The previous no-confidence motion, submitted before the summer by the Polish and Romanian delegations of the European Conservatives and Reformists, failed to secure the required majority but showed the Commission’s limited support: out of 719 MEPs, only 553 voted, with 175 against von der Leyen.

In July, although many centrist MEPs expressed disappointment with her leadership, they either abstained (11), were absent (86), or voted in her favor (355), viewing the motion as a right-wing attempt to create chaos. Only two centrist MEPs voted against her.

This time, however, more MEPs seem willing to back the no-confidence motion tabled by The Left. The Patriots are also expected to join, with their leader Jordan Bardella, Marine Le Pen’s protégé, announcing their support despite ideological differences.

Based on previous voting patterns and early signals from national delegations, Politico estimates that some members of the European Conservatives and Reformists will also support the motion.

In the worst-case scenario for the Commission president, the Socialists, Renew, and Greens who did not support her in July could now bolster the “anti-Leyen” front.

Even then, however, von der Leyen would face at most 305 votes against her — far short of the 480 required to remove her if all MEPs vote.