Russia is concentrating its firepower and troops on the shattered town of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine, in what appears to be an attempt to seize a crucial “gateway” to the embattled Donetsk region.

After more than a year of relentless fighting, Pokrovsk — once a key railway and supply hub — has been virtually flattened. Before the war, its population was around 60,000; today, fewer than 1,300 residents remain. Ukrainian defenders describe the fighting as constant and among the bloodiest of the four-year war.

Pokrovsk Under Siege

According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, nearly one-third of all fighting along the 1,200-kilometre front line is now taking place near Pokrovsk, with roughly half of Russian air and artillery strikes concentrated in the area. Although these figures are unverified, they underscore the city’s strategic importance — and the potential consequences if Ukraine loses control.

Independent analysis from DeepState UA, a project linked to Ukrainian military sources, indicates that Russian troops have taken control of Pokrovsk’s southwestern edge and two narrow strips in the city’s center and west. The remainder is a “gray zone” under contested control.

“The enemy continues to build up forces in the city,” the group wrote on social media, describing Pokrovsk as being “gradually captured.”

Strategic Importance and Heavy Losses

If Pokrovsk falls, it would be the largest Ukrainian city captured by Russian forces since Bakhmut in May 2023. The city is widely seen as the last major barrier before the Russians can advance toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, the two main Ukrainian-controlled cities in Donetsk.

Seizing Pokrovsk would bolster the Kremlin’s claim that “the Russian army is advancing” and increase pressure on Kyiv at a time when it is seeking continued Western support.

Despite official optimism, Zelensky has acknowledged the immense challenges. During a visit to troops near the front, he awarded medals and vowed to “continue destroying the occupier,” though the situation on the ground remains dire.

War of Attrition

Analysts say the fighting around Pokrovsk highlights both armies’ exhaustion. Russian advances have been slow and costly, with Ukrainian officers estimating tens of thousands of Russian casualties in recent months. According to Western intelligence assessments, total Russian losses since the full-scale invasion began in 2022 may now exceed 900,000 killed or wounded — more than twice Ukraine’s.

Yet, Ukraine faces a growing manpower crisis. Zelensky recently admitted that Ukrainian forces near Pokrovsk are outnumbered eight to one. Soldiers describe a grim cycle in which depleted brigades are constantly shifted to plug breaches in the line as Russia exploits gaps.

Winter and the Road Ahead

Pokrovsk lies just 80 kilometers from Kramatorsk, with Sloviansk slightly farther north — both within range of Russian drones and missiles. As winter approaches, movement on the battlefield is expected to slow: trees lose their cover, and temperatures plunge.

Still, Russia continues to send small infiltration units, sometimes only two or three men at a time, to probe Ukrainian defenses. If enough of these units converge on a town, they attempt to overwhelm defenders in localized assaults.

The coming winter — the fourth since Russia’s invasion — may prove to be one of the war’s most critical phases, setting the stage for a decisive spring offensive in 2026.