October proved particularly dynamic for the liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipping market, according to the latest report from broker INTERMODAL and analyst Nikos Tagoulis.

Freight rates recorded a notable rise, with the average for 174,000 cbm vessels reaching $49,750/day at the end of the month — levels well above the 2025 average of $27,886/day.

The Atlantic was the main pillar of the rebound, with spot rates exceeding even $60,000/day, reflecting intense activity and reduced vessel availability. Overall, October’s average spot rates rose 6% compared with September.

“The rise in US LNG exports was the main driving force supporting Atlantic freight rates,” Tagoulis noted. “Exports increased 27.6% year-on-year, with Europe absorbing the majority of cargoes.”

Europe, ahead of winter and its push to reduce dependence on Russian pipeline gas, increased demand. As noted in the report, in October the European Commission announced the 19th sanctions package, which bans imports of Russian LNG from 2027 for long-term contracts and ends short-term agreements gradually over the next six months.

Weather conditions also supported the market. Hurricane Melissa, upgraded to category 5, moved through the eastern Atlantic without directly impacting LNG facilities in the US Gulf, but created concern over potential disruptions to shipping lanes.

“Although US infrastructure was not significantly affected, the hurricane temporarily limited vessel availability, offering additional support to freight rates,” Tagoulis added.

In contrast, Asia was more subdued. South Korea and China saw reduced imports due to mild weather, while Japan increased its imports 17% year-on-year, mainly from Australia and Malaysia.

Globally, shifts in LNG flows and geopolitical changes have altered trade patterns, limiting this year’s growth in ton-miles to just 1.4%. However, a strong rebound is expected in 2026, with a 19% rise forecast, as new liquefaction projects begin operations, boosting global supply.

On supply, the LNG carrier fleet is expected to expand 9% in 2025, outpacing the projected 5% increase in LNG trade. Although the orderbook-to-fleet ratio has eased since mid-2024, it remains high at 41%. 32% of the fleet is younger than five years old, while the average age of vessels stands at 10.36 years.

The prolonged period of low freight rates, new regulations and commercial pressure have accelerated scrapping of older vessels, with 12 LNG carriers (total capacity 1.63 million cbm) already retired in 2025 — a record number for the sector.

As Tagoulis concludes: “The short-term outlook remains positive thanks to US exports and winter demand, yet the fundamental market drivers suggest that sustaining this momentum is uncertain. Meaningful recovery is expected from 2026 onwards, when new liquefaction capacity will increase global supply and, in turn, demand for LNG transportation.”