The political system reaches boiling point in anticipation of one, two or even three new party formations: the preliminary measurements from polling companies show that if both Alexis Tsipras and Antonis Samaras as well as Maria Karystianou proceed to the creation of new formations, then collapse will follow in the current correlations in the field of the opposition, right and left.

Several polling companies measure – without making the results public – all the possibilities and the numbers are more or less the same: in the case that all three proceed to the founding of new parties, then all the current opposition parties collapse in the polls, without at the same time the pool of the undecided emptying, to which New Democracy has significant access.

Cost – in the possibility of creation of three new formations – also exists for the governing party, without however its significant lead being questioned: ND loses up to two points in voting intention – and the absolute majority moves even further away – however the distance from the second remains over 12 points.

She passes Tsipras

In the scenario of the three new parties, the second place after ND is taken by the “Karystianou party”, despite the fact that already some relatives of the Tempi victims react to such a possibility, in view moreover of the start of the trial for the tragedy of February 28, 2023.

It is noted that despite the fact that people like Nikos Karachalios attempted to speak on her behalf pre-announcing the founding of a party, they were denied by herself, who leaves all possibilities open, but cuts back relative expectations. It is understood anyway that such a political formation could not but make its appearance with the start of the pre-election period…

In any case, one company that systematically measures the “Karystianou party” recorded a drop of voting intention over three points within three months, however the initial percentage was over 17%.

In case of founding of a party both by Alexis Tsipras and by the grieving mother of Tempi, the former SYRIZA president loses close to 4 points and falls to fourth place, Plefsi Eleftherias, SYRIZA, Nea Aristera and MERA25 collapse, while big cost also exists for the parties to the right of ND.

PASOK “burns”

However, the biggest problem in such a scenario PASOK has, although – comparatively – it shows the lowest losses, as it loses second place and returns to single digit percentages in voting intention.

In this framework, what Nikos Androulakis said speaking behind closed doors to the στελέχη of the local gov’t faction of PASOK, on the sidelines of the KEDE conference, in Alexandroupolis, can be explained: he said that the party must either be first or be close to ND in the next elections, otherwise, as he added, extreme voices will prevail in the opposition and the governing party will be able to impose “Mitsotakis or chaos” at the second appointment with the ballot boxes.

Tsipras’ influence

For now, only Alexis Tsipras has essentially opened his cards, predisposing the parties and public opinion for his return with a new political formation. In the case that he will not have opposite him a “Karystianou party”, the “Tsipras party” is recorded in preliminary measurements in second place, with a difference over 2.5 points compared to PASOK, but at a big distance from New Democracy.

It must be noted that in the case of Tsipras the second place counts less in relation to the distance from ND, as his potential vote is given with the expectation that due to the extreme fragmentation of the centre-left and left opposition, only the former prime minister could be the opponent force to Kyriakos Mitsotakis.

If something like this is disproved by the polls, it is very likely there will be early disappointment, especially beyond the core of his supporters, who are located with different but significant percentages in SYRIZA, Nea Aristera, MERA25, Plefsi Eleftherias, even in KKE, but also in PASOK and Elliniki Lysi.

However, it must be noted that measurements for Tsipras’ influence in the electoral body have started from the beginning of last summer, with his percentages decreasing, despite the fact that due to the imminent publication of his book he is constantly in the news.

The Samaras interview

“So I weigh the whole situation with great attention. I monitor everything. What is happening inside and outside the Homeland. I will judge calmly. And when I take my decisions, whatever they are, either this way or that way, I will explain them clearly and plainly to the only stable ally of my course, for almost 50 years: to the Greek people.” With this phrase that closed the…Ben-Hur-like interview duration 1 hour and 50 minutes former prime minister Antonis Samaras left on Sunday everything open for the prospect of the creation of a new party.

Until he reached this terminal reference, he had unleashed a harsh accusation on all the field against the Maximos Mansion and Kyriakos Mitsotakis personally, for whom he spoke with very heavy words. Especially with the references to “regime”, but also for de-ideologization of ND and its transformation into a Simitis hybrid.

From the economy and foreign policy, to the handling for OPEKEPE and Tempi, Mr Samaras opened direct fire against Mr Mitsotakis, showing in practice that he did not have and does not have any intention for “sasmos”. He himself supported that he has no spite, but that he was deleted, he did not depart. And he stressed that the government is insincere when it makes an “opening” towards him, as this is not accompanied by recognition of political mistakes, especially in national issues.

The decisions

As a person who speaks daily with Mr Samaras says to protothema.gr, the former prime minister placed himself on all fields not as “former”, but with his gaze on the future. In short, he deconstructed Mr Mitsotakis’ handling with the argument – between the lines – that with him at the wheel things would be different.

Mr Samaras, after all, has the argument that the positions he expressed and for which he says he was mocked, now are majority. Of course, that the interview had been recorded from October 31 perhaps made some of his observations outdated, especially as to Greece’s relations with the USA, under the prism of the PTEC conference that took place in Zappeio.

The bottom line anyway is if and when the former prime minister will press the button for a new party. He “kneads” in the background, speaks with ND στελέχη and not only, but does not yet make the decisive step. He however maintains the public discussion, as the more he does the more his interventions are heard.

Mr Samaras, of course, is politically experienced and understands that the creation of a new party is not an easy exercise, nor is success of an attempt guaranteed. And the estimates of people that are in contact with him or know him long are divided.

Many believe that in his mind he has taken his decisions and will simply choose the proper timing to announce them, others estimate that he uses his rhetoric as a lever of pressure and wear on the government, hoping in other moves, possibly even inside ND. It is also given that Mr Samaras wants to “read” the chessboard overall.

Anyway, the measurements show low flights for a “Samaras party”, as it does not seem to have special appeal to today’s ND voters. However, the fact that the “grey zone” includes a significant portion of centre-right and right voters can weigh in his final decisions.

Photos: EUROKINISSI