Hello, I still remember Nikos Pappas’s epic line outside the Maximos Mansion that summer night in 2015 when the referendum was announced. “Tonight is a beautiful day…” said that giant of politics, Pappas, and I’m sure that somewhere nearby must have been Manolis Petsitis, who we learned yesterday has some dealings with the killers of the “night-owl” Lalas. Go figure, as they say. Now, yesterday we read from the “legitimate” excerpt of the book that Tsipras released publicly that Merkel was left speechless when he told her he would hold a referendum—but from what I understood, she may have been left speechless, but nothing really happened to her, since her term was… peculiarly full. She was constantly wrapped up in dealings with Putin and was fooling all of Europe with the prices of Russian gas—would she balk at Alexis? In any case, I repeat (stereotypically), I don’t understand what purpose it really serves Tsipras to remind everyone of those dramatic moments in History. And between us, I’m told that everyone at the Maximos Mansion wonders why he did it, “when he could have written a book about the future with at least some references to the past, but in any case not something like this.” Anyway, I’ll close the Tsipras-related matters with a clarification about what I wrote yesterday about his self-criticism in the book on “family issues” (I’m getting there little by little…). I didn’t mean that the man is apologizing to his own family environment, but that he is doing some self-criticism regarding what was said, written, and done against the family of his political opponent.

The big game of Elefsina

Now to government matters: Guilfoyle continues unabated with moves that strengthen American interests, which nevertheless also help us. Last week she “set her sights” on the port of Piraeus, and yesterday she visited Theodorikakos, promoting the idea of an alternative hub centered around ONEX’s investment in the Elefsina shipyards. Practically speaking, the relevant amendment will soon be submitted by the minister so it can be voted on in November, allowing the company to utilize a shipyard area for other purposes—essentially to create a logistics hub connected by rail and road to Thriasio. In other words, it seems that Elefsina is being positioned as an alternative hub mainly for the transport of energy and other goods. With all this, I think it will be interesting to see the reaction of Chinese officials who will be in Athens on Thursday for the anniversary event of the Hellenic-Chinese Chamber.

The role of the DFC

A critical parameter in the ONEX deal is the role of the DFC, the US public investment fund. In fact, the first company ever funded by the DFC was ONEX, while the American fund also joined the Aktor–DEPA deal. There is also a push for its involvement in the GSI—the Greece–Cyprus electrical interconnection cable.

The livestock breeders’ package

“Reading the room” and the anger of livestock breeders afflicted by sheep pox, K.M. announced yesterday an immediate support package that will be given shortly and will likely be announced next week by Chatzidakis–Tsiaras (who were in Brussels yesterday for consultations). The package will certainly exceed €50 million and will be granted by the end of the year, but the final amount will be “locked in” after discussions with Deputy Finance Minister Thanos Petralias. The logic is that the more animals—and therefore income—you lost, the greater the amount of direct support.

From tsipouro to tsikoudia

Meanwhile, in ND they eat, drink, and mingle. After the “tsipouro cauldron” that Florina MP Stavros Papasotiriou organized over the weekend, gathering around thirty MPs and ministers, next up is Avgenakis in Heraklion on the weekend of November 29–30. The former minister traditionally holds “cauldron gatherings,” but with tsikoudia and ‘antikristo’ roast, while for Saturday morning a football match has also been organized between MPs and journalists, together with veteran players from OFI and Ergotelis, with proceeds going to Heraklion charities.

The end of a relationship

In PASOK matters, the distance between the mayor of Athens and the East Attica MP Manolis Christodoulakis is fully confirmed. Doukas does not rule out even Tsipras’s party from the next-day dialogue, contrary to Christodoulakis who insists on an autonomous course. A few days ago, Doukas “warded off” a mechanisms-driven congress, saying “we’re tired of the line-followers.” And Christodoulakis also says “we didn’t just meet yesterday.” Long story short, ahead of the congress Christodoulakis will gauge his strength across the party machinery, keeping contacts across the country as a former party secretary, while a core group is supporting him for a future autonomous candidacy whenever required.

The unexpectedly big success of Euronext (and the market)

We had several surprises in the market. No one expected that its public offer for the Hellenic Exchanges (EXAE) would be such a success. Not even Euronext itself expected it—hence it lowered the bar from 67% to 50% + 1 share. Today the official announcements will be made regarding the 73% acceptance that the public offer gathered. No one also expected that with an economy upgrade, a flood of positive reports, and Euronext’s success, the stock market would take such a beating. What can you do? Partly the time of year is not suitable for purchases by professionals, partly it’s global markets, and there is also a trend of foreign institutional investors selling bank stocks—it doesn’t take much.

€500,000 bonus for Yiannos Kontopoulos

Still, if you are worried about EXAE’s management after Euronext’s success, this column reassures you, as—according to information—the Board of EXAE approved the payment of a €500,000 bonus to CEO Yiannos Kontopoulos, who despite the change in ownership will continue performing his duties at least until June 2026, when his contract expires.

New voluntary-exit program at National Bank

Once this used to be big news. Now it’s routine. Information says that National Bank is preparing a new voluntary-exit program for its staff. The most interesting thing about these programs now is how far the age limit has dropped, because today there are practically no employees over 50 years old left in branches.

PPC hits its coverage target (1.5 million households) for optical fiber

More than 1.4 million households and businesses had been covered by the end of last September, compared to 477,000 in September 2023 (+200%) and 650,000 at the end of 2024 (+120%). PPC has now effectively met—and will exceed—its target of covering 1.5 million households and businesses by the end of 2025. Coverage is progressing excellently; the unknown variable remains how many fiber-optic subscribers PPC actually has. Meanwhile, the company is expanding its service range, and since last June has launched its internet-only FTTH service, available to 600,000 households and businesses and expanding into new areas, with more FTTH-based services planned soon. Financially, PPC is on track to reach its adjusted EBITDA target of €2 billion, as 9-month adjusted EBITDA reached €1.7 billion (+24%), while today management presents the new three-year business plan (2026–2028) in London.

Defense: the big opportunity for Greek industry

The Defense Budget is bringing a revolution for Greek industry. Greece has allocated €6.1 billion for this year (last year it was €3.6 billion) and has already announced a 12-year strategic program worth €25 billion. Obviously, major suppliers come from abroad. The General Directorate for Defense Armaments and Investments (GDAEE) has set as a condition for approving a supplier that each proposal must include at least “25% Greek Added Value”—i.e., participation of Greek industries. If this is not possible for a specific procurement (e.g., ultra-modern aircraft), then the supplier must ensure the 25% Greek Added Value in another country. In addition, foreign suppliers, in order to secure this 25%, assign support, maintenance, or repair work to Greek companies. At the same time, NATO has reopened its NATO Supply Chain Certification list, and Greek manufacturing and industrial companies are scrambling to get into the approved-suppliers list. EU defense spending reached a record €343 billion in 2024 (+19% vs 2023), and for 2025 programs worth €381 billion (2.1% of EU GDP) have been announced. Right now, Greek production units—from screws to software to packaging—are fighting hard to turn this painful “necessity” of defense spending into an “opportunity” for industrial rejuvenation.

Koustas locks in shipyard slots until 2028

Danaos Corp announced an order of six new feeder container ships, along with charters bringing $236 million in revenue, raising total backlog to $4.1 billion. Now 21 of its vessels are tied to charter contracts averaging 5.8 years. Small details? Not for Koustas, who seems to be “locking in” shipyard slots for 2028, while newbuilding prices are rising. Essentially, the strategy is twofold: on the one hand, he capitalizes on “below-market” prices for mid-size feeders; on the other, he strengthens the fleet with capesize bulkers—such as the purchase of Hebei No 1—expanding exposure to larger cargoes. This way, Danaos maintains strong cash flow while securing future revenues for the next 6–10 years. Looking at the numbers, earnings before taxes and interest are positive ($131 million), while adjusted earnings per share ($6.75) came in slightly below Wall Street expectations ($7.10). But the key takeaway isn’t the quarterly numbers—it’s the long-term positioning: Koustas is “getting ahead” of the markets in container ships and bulkers before prices skyrocket and shipyard slots run out. Simply put, Koustas’s move resembles a Wall-Street-style hedge: he secures revenue through charters, expands the fleet with “cheap” new orders, and simultaneously invests in larger vessels ahead of the next wave of freight-rate increases.

The Koumandaros orders

The Koumandaros family, through Atlantic Bulk Carriers, shows once again that Greek shipowners fear neither geopolitical risks nor regulatory changes when it comes to renewing and expanding their fleets. The recent order of four ultramax vessels at the Nantong Xiangyu shipyards, just a few months after receiving three previous ships, sends a clear message: the Greeks know the game. Brokers estimate the value of the deal at $135 million, roughly $33.8 million per ship, with delivery scheduled for 2028. From a market perspective, the strategy resembles a hedge: the company is already liquidating older ships (three in the last two years for $31 million), likely to make room for the new units. At the same time, the favorable conditions in the secondhand supramax market allow for profits from selling older vessels such as the Desert Victory and Desert Glory (2011). Reflecting the trend, ultramax and supramax shipbuilding orders worldwide are declining (11.2% of the respective tonnage under construction, down from 14.5% in July 2024). This pushes prices downward while keeping demand for secondhand ships high—a combination Greek owners seem to fully exploit. Overall, the move reflects classic Greek realist strategy: buy at a low price, sell older units, and at the same time maintain a strong presence in mid-size bulkers—despite global market clouds and geopolitical risk scenarios.

Boxships cash and tankers plan of the Greeks on Nasdaq

Euroholdings is leveraging its existing vessels, which are performing well, while simultaneously shifting toward new markets. The company’s older containerships, two of them over ten years old, continue to generate profits, with an average daily charter of $16,580 in the third quarter, up from $14,087 last year—even after the sale of the third vessel initially planned for the spin-off. The result? Although total revenues fell by 29.4% to $3 million due to the smaller fleet, net profits rose by one third to $1.5 million, and the company announced a dividend of $0.14 per share for the third quarter. At the same time, Euroholdings is beginning to implement its “plan B”: a shift toward tankers, starting with a medium-range product tanker. The first move was the purchase of the 10-year-old MR2 Hellas Avatar, expected to be delivered in November. This strategy is supported by Marla Investments of Marianna Latsi’s family, which acquired 51% of the company, while the family of Aristeidis Pittas maintains a significant stake. The strategy resembles Wall Street-style “risk balancing”: cash from existing assets to finance entry into a new, more promising market.

Cenergy, steel pipes and offshore drilling

The Financial Times published an interesting article on the revival of offshore drilling in the Gulf of Mexico and globally. The article discusses new ultra-high-pressure technology used in projects such as Chevron’s Anchor, which opens up new markets that were previously unreachable. Chevron is already carrying out a major contract in the Gulf of Mexico, in a region where oil production is expected to increase by 6% this year and 3% in 2026. What’s of Greek interest in this development is that very few companies worldwide can produce pipes for extreme depths. Cenergy is one of them. Cenergy’s steel pipes division has recorded a record operating profit this year (EBITDA €100 million). Since conventional oil production is shrinking and offshore extraction is becoming essential, analysts see significant growth potential in these specialized steel pipes. The article concludes by noting that the Trump administration, with its “drill baby drill” policy, is “opening” new areas for exploitation (California, Alaska), while Wood Mackenzie estimates that the new technology will unlock 2 billion barrels of oil in the Gulf. A new market, with few barriers and high specialization, for Cenergy.

Entrenched at the 2,000-point fortress

It was bound to happen sooner or later. Markets correct, optimists investing with leverage must pay the price, and pessimists are vindicated—at least temporarily. When everyone around you is selling shares, you have to lock in your profits. When Alpha Bank’s stock has returned +115% since the beginning of the year and its market cap exceeds €8 billion, it’s logical for shares worth €62.7 million to change hands and for the share price to remain at €3.52 (–1.4%). Yesterday’s battle on the Stock Exchange was fought around the 2,000-point fortress. That’s where the battle will take place again today, since yesterday the General Index closed at the session’s lowest point, at 2,012.51 points (–2.09%). That’s also why trading volume had nothing to do with the previous day’s dull session, reaching €250.95 million, with €54.6 million in block trades. From the morning, market signals were not favorable—neither from Asia nor from Europe. And at midday, when American investors woke up, the absence of buyers frightened anyone holding leveraged positions, prompting them to liquidate. It wasn’t a sophisticated strategy—they sold the stocks that had performed the best in recent days. In banks, aside from the impressive trading volume in Alpha, Piraeus (–4.26% at €6.66), Eurobank (–3.54% at €3.32), and National Bank (–3.74% at €12.61) all fell victim to their strong performance this year. The same happened to the stocks of the Viohalco Group. ELVALHALCOR sank –6.96% to €3.21, Cenergy fell –3.32% to €15.14, while parent Viohalco limited losses to –1.79%, closing at €9.90. The market blatantly ignored the very strong earnings announced by PPC (–1.3% at €16.7) and the commitment to €2 billion in operating profitability. Intralot, with €13.6 million in trading value, fought hard against short-selling pressure—at one point losing more than 4%—but eventually limited losses to –0.19% at €1.07.

ECB: The calm warning before the storm

The European Central Bank sent a message yesterday that should not be underestimated: “Prepare for unprecedented shocks.” The ECB announced its supervisory priorities for 2025–2027, which include the following exact wording: “Geopolitical tensions and shifting trade policies, climate- and nature-related crises, demographic change, and technological disruption exacerbate structural vulnerabilities, making the likelihood of extreme low-probability events unprecedentedly high.” In simple terms, Frankfurt is asking banks to hold higher liquidity buffers, upgrade their information systems, and remain alert. And all this at a time when banks are extremely strong. The ECB calls for “forward-looking management that stays in touch with financial realities and more penetrating supervision.”

Nvidia’s moment

Who would have expected that markets would literally hang on Nvidia’s third-quarter results being released today? The tech giant, with its $4.4 trillion market cap, has become the leader of the global AI market, meaning anything it announces translates instantly into multibillion-dollar moves—especially now that Wall Street is riding the AI wave. Nvidia has driven the rise of the U.S. market and represents a huge share of this year’s index gains, with its weighting in the S&P 500 around 8%. Sales of Nvidia’s chips (H100, new GPU generations) are the best indicator of the sustainability of the Wall Street rally—and by extension global markets. If the company reports strong demand, it will show that Big Tech continues pouring billions into AI. If not, the market will fear the cycle is slowing, and the tremors will be strong. Already, the balance is highly delicate as high-profile investors like billionaire Peter Thiel’s hedge fund and SoftBank have sold shares, adding pressure to the stock.

When the “safe haven” is shaken

The world’s third-largest bond market, Japan’s, is not standing on solid ground. Yields on 10-year Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) have surged to their highest levels since the 2008 Financial Crisis, while 30- and 40-year JGBs are approaching historic highs. For many decades, Japanese bonds were synonymous with absolute safety. The Bank of Japan was buying bonds en masse through its quantitative easing program, keeping yields near zero. Now the balance is shifting. There are two main reasons: First, Japan’s worsening fiscal situation. With public debt exceeding 260% of GDP—the highest in the developed world—investors are beginning to question its sustainability. Japan has traditionally relied on domestic savings to finance its debt, but the aging population is changing this equation. Second, external demand for JGBs is weakening. Foreign investors, who traditionally bought Japanese bonds as a hedge, are now seeking higher yields elsewhere—especially since Japan abandoned its negative interest rate policy. If this trend continues, Japan will face an explosive increase in borrowing costs. With an annual deficit that requires continuous refinancing, every percentage point rise in yields translates into billions of additional spending. And if the world’s third-largest economy loses access to cheap financing, the consequences will be felt by everyone.