Turkey is considering opening its land border with Armenia in the next six months, according to sources well-informed on the matter, thus removing Europe’s last closed border since the Cold War and paving the way for a revival of trade in the Caucasus.
Turkey closed the border in 1993 in solidarity with its ally, Azerbaijan in its war with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh. The mountainous region without sea access in the South Caucasus was ceded to Azerbaijan shortly after the collapse of the Soviet Union, sparking decades of conflict. Earlier this year, US President Donald Trump signed a joint declaration of peace with the leaders of Armenia and neighboring Azerbaijan, seeking an end to the conflict.
Diplomatic progress with Azerbaijan and the reopening of the border with Turkey will give a major boost to Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian, who will contest the June elections. If he wins a new term, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev could work with Pashinian and formalize a peace deal, according to people directly familiar with the thawing of relations between the two countries. Only after that could Turkey appoint an ambassador to Armenia to restore diplomatic relations, they said.
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