European leaders are meeting in Brussels to decide whether frozen Russian assets can be used to support a €210 billion loan for Ukraine, in negotiations that are testing the European Union’s unity and credibility.

According to Reuters, advisers and officials from EU member states held continuous consultations throughout the day in an effort to bridge differences with Belgium, where the vast majority of the frozen Russian assets are held—€185 billion out of a total €210 billion, mainly at the clearing house Euroclear.

Two senior EU officials familiar with the talks said there is an increased likelihood that the main parameters of an agreement could be shaped late on Thursday night or in the early hours of Friday.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she would not leave the European Council building without an agreement on financing for Kyiv, underlining the political importance of the decision. The EU considers Russia’s war in Ukraine a direct threat to its own security and estimates that, without European financial support, Ukraine could run out of funds in the second quarter of next year, raising the risk of military defeat. EU officials believe such an outcome would increase the threat of Russian aggression against the EU itself.

The plan under discussion would use frozen assets of the Russian central bank, worth approximately €210 billion, as collateral for a loan to Ukraine. Of this amount, €185 billion is held at Belgium-based Euroclear, making Belgium a key player in the negotiations. Belgian authorities, however, have raised strong concerns about potential legal and financial risks, particularly in the event of legal action by Russia.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk called on European leaders to take immediate decisions, stating that there is a clear choice between providing funding now or facing greater costs later. He said there is broad agreement that the loan-based solution is the preferred option, although many technical issues remain unresolved.

According to a European diplomat cited by Politico, the Belgian delegation submitted a two-page document outlining extensive conditions for supporting the plan. These include demands for full legal protection if Russia were to take legal action against Belgium over the use of the assets held in Brussels—demands that have met resistance from other member states.

Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever told the Belgian parliament that he has not yet received sufficient guarantees to cover liquidity risks and potential legal claims, noting that the financing plans are still evolving.

At the same time, EU officials are examining alternative options in case the plan fails. Three EU diplomats said a legal mechanism known as “enhanced cooperation” is being considered, which would allow a group of countries—led by Italy and Belgium—to issue joint debt for Ukraine, bypassing the requirement for unanimity and excluding Hungary. Hungary has already said it would veto any solution based on the EU budget.

Diplomatic sources stress, however, that using frozen Russian assets remains the only realistic option. The latest draft of the summit conclusions provides for a political decision to move forward with the loan and for officials to urgently resolve the technical details, including explicit provisions for sharing risks among member states to reassure Belgium and other cautious countries.

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas estimated the chances of reaching an agreement at 50–50, saying that failure is not an option. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz expressed cautious optimism, saying he believes an agreement is achievable.

All other substantive items on the summit agenda—including EU enlargement, the Middle East, and migration—have already been agreed, leaving Ukraine’s financing as the sole unresolved and decisive issue.