In a note released on March 1, analysts including Daan Struyven highlighted that major gas benchmarks in Europe and Asia have largely not priced in the geopolitical risks associated with Iran. Risk premiums remain relatively low despite growing uncertainty in the region.

Around 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade—including significant volumes from Qatar—passes through the Strait of Hormuz. According to Goldman Sachs, a one-month interruption could push European gas prices and LNG spot prices up by as much as 130%, reaching $25 per mmBtu.

In an even more severe scenario, where the disruption extends beyond two months, European prices could exceed €100 per MWh (approximately $35/mmBtu). Such a spike would likely slow global gas demand, as higher energy costs strain both industries and consumers, amplifying economic pressures.

Despite the potentially serious consequences for Europe and Asia, Goldman Sachs expects the effect on U.S. natural gas markets to be comparatively limited.