Greetings. The weekend just past, the first of the new year, truly delivered impressive bread and circuses worldwide, with the most cinematic arrest (or abduction) of all: the dictator Maduro being seized by the U.S. military and brought before a U.S. court in New York. Since the day before yesterday, an enormous amount has been written—thousands of analyses around the world. Let’s agree that the Americans changed the way they… finish off a regime. They basically did it Trump Administration–style: they went in and grabbed him, instead of waiting around with the classic methods of sabotage, etc. Before we get to the facts, I’d like to remind the domestic grieving Leftists (and other “democratic forces”) who are howling over Maduro of an article published shortly after Venezuela’s presidential elections in The Guardian—hardly a paper you’d call right-wing. The ideologically left-leaning British newspaper wrote in August 2024 that the Venezuelan opposition—now backed by Trump—proved, in many and varied ways, that the supposed 51% Maduro allegedly won was the product of widespread violence and ballot fraud. In short, he never actually got that percentage, since if you consult any mainstream Western media outlet today, you’ll read that the opposition took over 65%. For the record, let me remind you that the countries that recognized Maduro as the legitimately elected president were Russia, China, Iran, Serbia, Syria, Cuba, Bolivia, Nicaragua, and other such… democratic regimes. No Europeans, no Americans of course, and no one else in the West recognized the regime, at least after 2024. So those crying today should remember that Maduro was not a legitimately elected president chosen by his country’s citizens, as the entire opposition in Greece told us—from Alexis, who sent Pappas along with the offshore-savvy Cypriot Artemiou and… they were bringing something in private jets, all the way to Haritsis and the rest of the Left. Even Androulakis, in PASOK’s statement, produced some… mumblings, lest he be seen as right-wing. So yes, Maduro is both a dictator and a narco-trafficker, and the rest is of course up for discussion—but we’re not going to cry over international legality because, quite simply, in this case, it doesn’t exist. He was a ruthless narco-dictator, and in the coming days his atrocities will be revealed.

Athens FIR – The year’s first mess-up!

• We leave the big international event and move on to an extremely serious incident that occurred yesterday morning at 9 a.m. and lasted for several hours: the closure of the Athens FIR due to interference on almost all frequencies used by pilots to communicate with Air Traffic Control. The issue, of course, is not just why it happened and how, but the most worrying fact is that we don’t actually know exactly what happened. Was it a malfunction, a hardware failure, or sabotage (which seems to have been ruled out), and when will we find out? Since a lot is being said—mainly by air traffic controllers—about old systems, the need for new equipment, etc., it would be good if today, even today, the competent minister Dimas told us and explained what happened and how. Yesterday was not the country’s best look…

The lucky coin and Mitsotakis’ New Year’s Eve resolution

• I’m moving away from the heavy and serious topic of the days with the Left’s beloved Nicolás and turning to our own festive matters, starting with some reporting I did (via a well-connected gossip) on the prime ministerial New Year’s Eve dinner and the news revealed by K.M. himself on New Year’s Day, during the exchange of wishes with President Tasoulas, about his son’s engagement. First of all, let me tell you that Mitsotakis spent New Year’s Eve with his family at a friend’s house where he traditionally goes (on the last day of the year) without fail since 2015. There are, after all, the relevant family photos—for the observant—with the same background, the Christmas tree, the same paintings, etc., all these years. For the first time in his life, as he himself revealed—my source told me—Mitsotakis won the lucky coin in the New Year’s pie and also made a New Year’s Eve resolution (wishes–goals for the new year, if I may translate it), which was more personal than political. So I learned that he said: “I wish 2026 to be a stepping-stone year, that we work well in all sectors and that things go well politically in 2027, but… even more, I wish that in 2027 we become grandparents!” That’s how, or something very close to it, he announced the engagement of his son Konstantinos to Maria Sakkari, to whom the 28-year-old proposed over Christmas. You, beyond the prime minister’s family matters, keep this in mind: elections are being planned for spring 2027.

Escalation with the farmers

• After yesterday’s meeting at the Maximos Mansion and today’s first morning coffee of the year, the government’s final stance toward the farmers—who yesterday decided to go all-in on… the tsamiko dance and adopt a logic of full rupture—is being locked in. Administrative fines for tractors are obviously on the table, as is a more active stance by the police, since the farmers plan in the coming days to permanently block critical infrastructure of the country. It’s also being examined whether legislative regulation is needed to tighten the framework. The government, however, will also seek an overall new positioning on the issue, as the scenario of dialogue—and the prospect of breaking up the blockades—has now come to an end.

Marinakis’ response to the KKE

• Yesterday morning, at one of the New Year’s pie-cuttings in the municipality of Nea Filadelfeia, Pavlos Marinakis found himself confronted by a KKE municipal councilor who went after the government over its stance on Venezuela. The spokesman didn’t mince words, of course—something I expect to see again today at the briefing. “I’m proud to represent a prime minister who is on the right side of history; some choose to side with a dictator, a friend of Erdoğan and Putin,” Marinakis said, continuing his fire by adding that he doesn’t recall the KKE showing the same sensitivity when Russia invaded Ukraine—a country with an internationally recognized government.

Psyomiadis–Karystianou

• Given that the people around Maria Karystianou come from the right and probably the far right, over the weekend scenarios began circulating about the involvement of former Thessaloniki prefect Panagiotis (Panikas to friends) Psyomiadis in the whole venture. Psyomiadis has withdrawn from the spotlight because he has court cases, but he continues to maintain a significant network of contacts in Thessaloniki and Macedonia in general, especially within the Pontic Greek community. He may not be in the first flush of youth, but he doesn’t seem to be giving up—although people around him were saying things like “there’s nothing for now” regarding the prospect of his participation in a new party. As for the future, though?

Markets: Business as usual and we’ll see

• Returning to Maduro’s arrest, I should note that analysts’ assessments for the markets are not alarming. We’ve entered a new period of international politics; the bar of geopolitical concern was raised after U.S. references to Cuba, Colombia, and Mexico, but for now we do not expect shocks in the markets due to developments in Venezuela. The market had priced in—not the specific operation, of course, but the escalation of the crisis. The oil market showed no signs of concern; analysts are talking at most about limited short-term upward moves. Overall, initial reactions in futures products raise no concern, so the event will be priced in today by stock markets as well, without—at least it seems—the Venezuela factor exerting downward pressure.

The Greek businessman who paid €735.5 million in taxes and the builder with €4.5 billion

• In the U.S., where everything is measured, the most successful hedge fund manager is considered to be Soros, who delivered a 20% return every year for many consecutive years. The hedge fund manager who broke every annual return record was Paulson, who made around $6 billion in profits during the 2008 crisis. By the same logic, then, the company and businessman who contributed the largest amount to public coffers last year was Karelias. Due to excise duties, VAT, corporate and other taxes, Karelias calculated that it paid a total of €735.5 million—an amount corresponding to over 1% of the Greek state’s total tax revenues of all kinds in 2025, and the largest tax contribution in its history, as it pays significant sums every year. This record for the Kalamata-based company is the result of its performance last year, as its sales volume increased by 9% and its organic profitability by about 11% compared to 2024—despite Karelias being affected by the weak dollar against the euro. The record for a one-off boost to public coffers belongs to Peristeris of GEK TERNA, who over the last 14 months (October ’24–December ’25) paid €4.54 billion in concession fees (€3.27 billion for Attiki Odos and €1.27 billion for Egnatia). Everything seems to come in sevens—won’t he buy a lottery ticket too?

OPAP’s big day

• At the shareholders’ general meeting of OPAP the day after tomorrow, the organization’s plan for the next day will be decided. Allwyn continues to increase its stake and on the last day of 2025 acquired an additional 131,967 OPAP shares at an average price of €18.7743 per share (a total of €2,477,588). So, the day after tomorrow, Wednesday, OPAP shareholders will be called upon to decide on the proposed terms of the reverse merger. Those OPAP shareholders who decide to vote against the proposed agreement secure an exit option at a price of €19.04, with a one-month window to exercise it. Those voting in favor must do so in writing by today, since tomorrow, 6/1, is the Epiphany public holiday. OPAP and Allwyn have stated that if the percentage of those validly exercising the exit right exceeds 5% of OPAP’s share capital, the cross-border conversion will be canceled—unless it is deemed necessary to have a different outcome regarding changing or lifting this threshold, following Allwyn’s written consent.

Zeroes don’t dent Tyler’s morale

• With delays, it seems, is progressing Tyler Macbeth’s business venture regarding the gym he wants to open in Athens. As is known, Stefanos Kasselakis’ husband founded the company Barry’s Greece Single-Member S.A. on September 30, 2024, with the purpose of providing gym services, specialized fitness (aerobics, Pilates, yoga, etc.), apparatus and non-apparatus training—essentially aiming to bring a branch of the renowned American fitness chain Barry’s to Greece. The company’s registered office is at Leventi 5 in Kolonaki, where the couple’s luxury apartment is located, while the initial share capital amounted to €1,000, paid by Tyler Macbeth himself. According to information circulating at the time, two floors of a building on Kanari Street, also in Kolonaki, had been leased for the gym. However, along the way, something appears to have gone… wrong, and the gym never opened. More recent information says that another space has been leased, this time on Othonos Street in Syntagma, and that the opening is scheduled for the first months of 2026. Recently, however, Tyler’s company released its first financial results for the 2024 fiscal year, which are an… ode to zero. That is, for the September–December 2024 quarter, the company understandably recorded zero turnover and zero results, while every column (profit margin, loans, equity, liquidity, etc.) is dominated by… zero. As noted—apparently out of sheer habit—“the company’s financial ratios are satisfactory, especially considering the specific conditions affecting the sector in which it operates.” As for the next fiscal year, the continuation of the company’s course is anticipated, while regarding “significant events after the end of the fiscal year,” it is stressed that “beyond the events already mentioned, there are no material post-balance-sheet events as of 31/12/2024 that concern the company.” The balance sheet is signed on September 10, 2025—so I assume we’re still in the… warm-up phase.

Airport blackout: the first real test for the Athens Airport share

• I return from a different angle to the unprecedented problem that paralyzed Greek airspace yesterday, which today will constitute the first serious test for the share of Athens International Airport (AIA). Since its stock market debut in February 2024, AIA has been the great success story of the Greek capital market. Its market capitalization rose to €3.3 billion, delivering an annual return of 36.4%. Today it faces its first major test, and the reaction of international investors toward a high-yield “utility” stock is of great interest. The AIA share began its stock market journey on February 7, 2024, with an impressive debut, opening at €9.50 (+15.85%) compared to the offer price of €8.20. Demand exceeded supply by 23 times in the domestic market, while overall the IPO attracted more than €3 billion in interest. Athens Airport aims to establish itself as a leading transportation hub in Southeastern Europe, having handled more than 34 million passengers last year. In approximately 40 days from now, the international tender process for the expansion projects of the main and satellite terminals will be completed—a project worth €1.28 billion.

New corporate bond issues on the Athens Exchange—and shipping in the background

• Other companies are preparing to take the baton of corporate bonds being listed for trading on the Athens Stock Exchange in 2026. Activity was already elevated last year, with the most recent example being AKTOR’s retail bond (the company’s first), amounting to €140 million. Lamda Development, Aegean, and GEK TERNA had preceded it. In total, more than €1.3 billion was raised last year through retail bond issues. Now it’s the turn of other major groups—as well as shipping companies, specifically Greek-interest firms listed on Wall Street—to proceed with corporate bond issues targeting Greek investors. At the same time, ahead of the anticipated inclusion of the Athens Exchange in Euronext, efforts are underway to attract additional Greek shipping companies that are currently listed or have bonds trading in Oslo and on the NYSE. After all, Euronext’s CEO had indirectly revealed this intention when, during a press conference in Athens and answering a question about what Euronext membership could offer, he said: “You have the largest shipping industry globally, yet Oslo has more listed shipping companies.”

The Public Debt Management Agency’s New Year tradition

• At the start of each new year, Greece’s Public Debt Management Agency (PDMA) presents to the Ministry of Finance the overall plan for sovereign bond issuances. This year, according to information, the program begins in a few days with the issuance of a 10-year bond. This is primarily a precautionary move, aimed at testing market sentiment toward Greek bonds. The same approach was taken last year by Dimitris Tsakonas. Early on—mid-January 2025—he mandated Goldman Sachs, BofA Securities, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, Société Générale, and the National Bank of Greece to coordinate a €3 billion issue, which ultimately met with spectacular success, as demand from international investors exceeded €33 billion. As a result, the country covered its borrowing needs very early in the year, avoiding major turbulence and periods of congestion. This year, beyond covering financing needs, Greece aims to drastically reduce its liabilities from the bilateral loans (Greek Loan Facility) of the first bailout, which carry much higher interest rates compared to those Greece secures today.

2026: the year of big debt

• If there is one common characteristic in today’s economic and business landscape, it is the ease with which debt is created. Governments, businesses, and individuals borrow easily (not always cheaply), because there is always someone with abundant capital willing to lend. The IIF Global Debt Monitor presented its latest data, revealing that global debt reached a historic record of $346 trillion in the third quarter of 2025. At the exact same time, the era of “free money” from Japan came to an end. According to the IIF, global debt rose by +57% over eight years, from $220 trillion in 2017. Interestingly, debt as a percentage of GDP paints a different picture: after peaking above 340% in 2020, it gradually declined to around 310%. Global economic growth is trying to outpace debt accumulation. The big change this year, however, comes from the explosive rise in Japanese bond yields. The yield on the 10-year JGB surpassed 2%, a level not seen since 1999, while 30- and 40-year bonds reached historic highs of 3.42% and 3.72%, respectively. The Bank of Japan has been led since April 2023 by the “wise elder” Kazuo Ueda, aged 73—the first academic economist to head the BoJ in the postwar era. His appointment surprised everyone, as he wasn’t even a candidate. Ueda proceeded with the first yen interest rate hike in 17 years, definitively ending the zero-interest-rate policy.

…and the year of major records at the Athens Stock Exchange

• The Athens Stock Exchange opens today’s session at 2,158 points, having delivered a positive return for the fifth consecutive year in 2025, with the General Index gaining +44.3%. This is the sixth-highest return globally, following the stock markets of Seoul, Tel Aviv, Vietnam, Madrid, and Vienna. Over the past five years, the General Index has delivered returns of +162.4%, while the Banking Index recorded five-year gains of 342%. Particularly significant is the dividend yield of the Athens Exchange, with dividend distributions totaling €5 billion. Retail investor participation increased significantly (+20%) but remains far from past records. According to ATHEX data, active investor accounts reached 29,037. In the first half of December alone, 1,091 new accounts were opened. Foreign investor participation—or rather, investors placing capital in Athens from abroad—has reached 70% of total market capitalization, which stands at €146.2 billion. Greece’s GDP in 2025 is estimated at €243–245 billion, meaning stock market capitalization amounts to 60% of GDP. In the U.S., where things have gone off the rails, Wall Street’s capitalization corresponds to over 150% of GDP; in Germany, the figure ranges between 60–65%, while in troubled France it has exceeded 110% of GDP.

Maduro’s arrest boosted… Nike sales

• In one of the most unexpected cases of viral marketing we’ve seen, the arrest of Nicolás Maduro created an… upward trend in Nike sales. The Venezuelan dictator evolved into a Nike influencer. Search engine data show a striking spike in searches for “Nike Tech Fleece” immediately after photos of the Venezuelan leader were posted. Maduro appeared on our screens wearing Nike’s signature tracksuit, and within hours, Maduro’s size sold out in stores. The phenomenon is not unprecedented in Latin America. Fidel Castro, another famous leader of the region, was known for his love of tracksuits, effectively making the “track suit” an almost official uniform for socialist leaders on the continent. Nike’s brand managers couldn’t have imagined better—albeit ironic—advertising. In the age of social media dominance, even the most serious geopolitical developments can turn into moments of pop culture and consumer behavior.

The Minnesota scandal put 6,900 borrowers on hold

• Like all bailout-era governments, the Trump administration periodically exposes past financial scandals to justify layoffs of public employees, spending cuts, and heavy consumption taxes (i.e., tariffs) imposed to clean up public finances. The Small Business Administration (SBA) announced the suspension of 6,900 borrowers in Minnesota due to suspected fraudulent activity. The move, reported by FOX, reveals the scale of a problem that has plagued the U.S. business support system since the pandemic era. The suspensions mainly concern loans granted under COVID-19 emergency programs such as the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and EIDL loans. According to information, authorities identified suspicious patterns in thousands of applications, including falsified income statements, non-existent businesses, and forged documents. The most striking element is that despite the massive scale of the scandal, no criminal charges have yet been announced. The SBA is currently focusing on administrative suspensions, while federal prosecutors are expected to act at a later stage. The question now is whether the Minnesota case is isolated. It appears it is not. According to FOX News, U.S. authorities have identified tens of thousands of potential fraud cases in pandemic support programs. The Department of Justice has already prosecuted more than 3,000 cases nationwide, with the total amount of improperly paid funds exceeding $1.4 billion.