Mediobanca upgraded its target price for GEK TERNA on Tuesday, raising it to €45.7 per share from €30 per share previously.

The Overweight recommendation is based on:

i) the company’s strong vertically integrated concessions/construction business model and its proven track record,

ii) its strong market position and solid relationships with suppliers and the banking system,

iii) the long remaining lifespan of its concessions portfolio,

iv) the “secured” increase in EBITDA from €400 million in 2024 to more than €700 million by 2028,

v) the historically high construction backlog, which covers more than six years of activity.

Mediobanca notes that with the start of operations of the Egnatia Motorway and the acquisition of an additional 15% stake, GEK TERNA unlocks substantial value. Egnatia, with an enterprise value (EV) of €2.4 billion, now ranks as the Group’s second most valuable asset after Attiki Odos (EV €3.6 billion), with the two motorways jointly accounting for 51% of total Group value.

Key catalysts identified by Mediobanca include:

i) execution of the large construction backlog,

ii) completion of the agreement with Motor Oil in the energy sector within the first half of the year,

iii) completion of capex for new projects (Kastelli, Egnatia, VOAK, IRC, etc.),

iv) new motorway projects (from 2027 onward), as well as waste and water management projects,

v) and finally, a potential upgrade of the Greek market to Developed Market status (August for MSCI and September for FTSE).