The strategy that openly aimed for victory over New Democracy “even by a single vote” has collapsed like a house of cards, and the search for a safer plan is being hindered by conflicting views that PASOK is finding difficult to reconcile.

The “Dethronement”

The images of unity and clear messaging seen at the party congress now belong to the distant past. Since then, Harilaou Trikoupi has watched the danger of becoming trapped in another cycle of internal strife return with force, while Alexis Tsipras has effectively occupied much of PASOK’s political space.

Time is running out for any attempt to create a positive shock within PASOK, and everyone acknowledges that the next elections—which could come before 2027—are taking on an existential character for the official opposition party.

“If PASOK does not change now, after the elections the question will not be with whom it will govern, but whether it will still exist,” is the characteristic remark of an experienced party figure who is close to publicly sounding the alarm toward the Harilaou Trikoupi leadership.

The new realities reflected in recent polls have frozen optimistic predictions. Falling from second place is confronting PASOK, its leadership, and its senior figures with critical dilemmas about the future—both their own and the party’s.

As the third or fourth choice among voters, PASOK obviously has fewer chances of maintaining a leading role on election night. If that scenario is confirmed, some fear it could “become another SYRIZA”—that is, disintegrate on the way to a second round of elections.

The optimists continue to argue that the game is not over, repeating that the two newer parties currently ahead in the polls are still enjoying a honeymoon period and are benefiting from voters’ initial exploratory support.

The reality, however, is that even the calmer voices have serious reservations about PASOK’s resilience in the new political landscape. June is described as a “critical month.” If the trend that places Alexis Tsipras at the head of the opposition solidifies, a significant portion of PASOK’s forces may begin moving more decisively toward Tsipras’s party after September.

PASOK still relies on its comparative advantage as an organized party with roots in trade unions, local government, and professional chambers. However, Alexis Tsipras leads by a significant margin over Nikos Androulakis in polls measuring suitability for the premiership, while Androulakis’s performance in that metric remains weak.

The “Doukas Bombshell”

At Harilaou Trikoupi, Androulakis’s team initially chose silence after the disappointing polling results. The same approach was adopted by the PASOK leader when Athens Mayor Haris Doukas dropped what many called a “bombshell,” proposing cooperation even with Tsipras’s party in pursuit of progressive governance.

Doukas did not stop at advocating programmatic convergence. He went a step further by stating that the leader of any coalition of center-left parties should be whoever heads the party that wins the most votes.

If Alexis Tsipras continues to lead in the polls, then according to Doukas’s logic, he should become the future leader of the center-left bloc.

The proposal caused an uproar inside PASOK, with several supporters of Androulakis demanding Doukas’s immediate expulsion.

The leadership initially tried to downplay the issue. Although Doukas issued a clarifying statement on the Feast of the Holy Spirit, most observers concluded that he had not fundamentally retreated from his position.

This was not the first time Doukas had challenged Androulakis’s line.

He had also done so at the party congress, calling for a clear resolution rejecting post-election cooperation. He won the political argument but not the organizational battle, as candidates aligned with his faction performed poorly in elections for the new Central Committee, with those elected benefiting mainly from quota provisions.

Later, when Androulakis sought to include all leading figures in the new Political Council, he supported Doukas’s election, despite some of his allies privately predicting that “he already has one foot in Tsipras’s camp.”

Following Doukas’s latest statements, a growing number of PASOK figures began to suspect that “Doukas is provoking his own expulsion, preparing a heroic exit and eventual move—either now or after the first elections—to Tsipras’s party.”

A barrage of criticism from other PASOK officials followed.

Anna Diamantopoulou ruled out cooperation with Tsipras, saying, “We cannot be begging those who insult us.”

Giannis Vardakastanis stressed that Doukas’s comments were “outside party policy” and had not been formally proposed to the Political Council.

Giorgos Nikitiadis argued that if Doukas continued repeating the same position, he should be expelled.

The party spokesperson spoke more generally, saying that “we must not blur the message.”

At Friday’s meeting of the party’s top governing body, Nikos Androulakis sent a clear message that “people are not interested in political matchmaking.”

Those familiar with internal developments understand that an informal truce is currently underway between Harilaou Trikoupi and Kotzia Square (associated with Doukas). First, because expelling Doukas at this stage could become a gift to Tsipras’s new political venture. Second, because, as one senior figure put it, “PASOK has reached ground zero and cannot afford to lose anyone.”

Complete Short-Circuit

The loss of second place caused what many describe as a complete short-circuit within PASOK.

The party appeared to have no strong strategy for dealing with Tsipras’s return, despite the former prime minister signaling his intentions for at least a year before launching his new party.

Pavlos Geroulanos had spoken about the “motionless needle” as early as last October. Now he prefers silence on the major controversies, unwilling to be blamed for undermining party unity.

At the same time, however, he is reportedly receiving a flood of messages from supporters urging him to step forward in a last-minute effort to turn things around.

Manolis Christodoulakis is also keeping a low profile, despite maintaining a broad network of supporters within PASOK’s organizational structures.

The same is true of Anna Diamantopoulou, whose supporters frequently express frustration over Androulakis’s choices.

Androulakis’s decision to support the renewal of Bank of Greece Governor Giannis Stournaras’s term, along with the party’s silence following Doukas’s intervention, reportedly angered many of Diamantopoulou’s political allies, who represent PASOK’s reformist and center-right wing.

On the opposite side stands Doukas’s political logic—the other “soul” of PASOK, as some described it during internal discussions a year ago—which sees cooperation with Tsipras’s party as more feasible.

Diamantopoulou has publicly stated that New Democracy remains the main opponent until the elections and that any discussion now about post-election alliances seriously harms a PASOK already weakened by poor polling.

She has repeatedly described Alexis Tsipras as “a representative of populism” and appears determined not to alter that stance, even if post-election dilemmas arise.

Christodoulakis, for now, is making carefully controlled “leadership-style” appearances while focusing on his re-election campaign in Eastern Attica.

He supports the idea of progressive governance but is far from enthusiastic about cooperation with Tsipras’s party.

Meanwhile, Kostas Skandalidis is working to attract figures from neighboring political spaces into PASOK, while Kostas Laliotis—who is said to appear almost daily at party headquarters—reportedly sees major delays in implementing the party’s expansion strategy.

He frequently submits proposals and exchanges views with party members of all generations.

A Lonely Road

Current developments suggest PASOK will follow a solitary path into the elections and beyond—not only because independent political action was endorsed by party congresses, but also because no genuine basis for cooperation currently exists.

Cooperation with New Democracy has been ruled out because PASOK advocates political change.

Toward Tsipras’s party, attacks are escalating, while Androulakis reportedly sees Tsipras’s dominance within the opposition as part of a politically orchestrated scenario.

For his part, Alexis Tsipras has repeatedly made clear that he has no intention of partnering with PASOK.

The spokesperson for Tsipras’s party has likewise shut the door, arguing that PASOK has a different political culture and is not part of the same political family.

“Your Death, for my life”

Within PASOK, many acknowledge that the title of the confrontation with Tsipras’s party is essentially “your death is my life.”

They recognize that they face a fierce battle to regain second place before it is too late.

Androulakis’s recent re-election as party leader is currently viewed as a condition everyone must work within until the elections. That does not stop party members from privately asking, “What would things look like if someone else were at the helm?”

According to reports, discussions will intensify from September onward if PASOK fails to return, at least in polling terms, to direct competition with Tsipras for second place.

At that stage, several senior figures are expected to launch public interventions aimed at strengthening PASOK’s image.

Yet few expect miracles.

“Bold decisions are needed,” insists one parliamentarian who senses PASOK’s support weakening in his constituency, with voters drifting both toward New Democracy and toward “Tsipras’s new SYRIZA”—as well as toward Maria Karystianou’s movement.

The Scenarios

The best-case scenario for PASOK is ultimately reclaiming second place, with Tsipras’s party losing significant momentum during the autumn.

If PASOK maintains its position as the official opposition through election day, it could assume a kingmaker role and certainly survive its struggle with Tsipras for leadership of the center-left.

Under this scenario, Nikos Androulakis would also gain time to manage the party’s internal divisions, particularly if invited to participate in a coalition government with New Democracy.

The worst-case scenario is for PASOK to finish third or fourth.

Even a mid-campaign leadership change—a possibility that is already being discussed informally—would probably not be enough to keep the party united or prevent splits.

In that case, many believe PASOK could be virtually wiped out in a second election.

The middle scenario, offering more excuses for electoral setbacks, would be a near tie between PASOK and Tsipras’s party.

Such an outcome would almost inevitably lead to a third New Democracy victory unless both opposition parties approached New Democracy’s vote share.

Given that coalitions do not receive the parliamentary seat bonus awarded to the leading party, the first-place party would still be best positioned either to form a government or to call new elections.