A significant increase in returns and a new decrease in illegal arrivals were recorded in the first half of 2026 in the Migration sector, during a period in which the government is seeking to demonstrate that the stricter framework it has implemented is now delivering results in numerical terms. At the same time, satisfaction is expressed in Athens over the technical preparations underway to advance the so-called return hubs in African countries.

According to government sources, total returns reached 2,638 in the first half of the year, compared to 2,207 in the same period of 2025, marking a 20% increase. Even more pronounced is the change in forced deportations, which rose from 915 to 1,292, an increase of 41%.

Similarly, voluntary returns through the International Organization for Migration reached 870 from 740, an increase of 18%, while voluntary departures stood at 468 compared to 488 in 2025.

At the same time, sea-based illegal arrivals decreased by 27% compared to the first half of 2025, falling from 16,985 to 12,496. This development adds to the overall 25% decrease recorded in 2025, which is interpreted by the Ministry of Migration and Asylum as an indication that pressure on main migration routes is easing, although the risk of renewed escalation has not disappeared.

Particularly interesting are the nationality breakdowns. Arrivals of Egyptian nationals decreased by 72%, from around 2,800 to 800, while returns almost quadrupled, from 59 in 2025 to 227 in 2026.

In the case of Pakistani nationals, new arrivals have nearly matched returns, with 180 arrivals versus 169 returns. Government sources attribute this picture to improved cooperation with countries of origin and stricter implementation of return policies.

“Jail or return”

Within the same framework, the ministry also records as a positive outcome the implementation of the policy “jail or return.” From February until today, 599 undocumented migrants chose voluntary return to their countries of origin in order to avoid serving a prison sentence.

This is one of the key tools of the policy set by Migration Minister Thanos Plevris, who is attempting to shift the focus from mere management of incoming flows to the actual execution of returns.

The political leadership of the Ministry of Migration and Asylum, Thanos Plevris and Sevi Voloudaki, at the new migrant reception facility in Agia, Chania.

It is recalled that, as reported this week by protothema.gr, the process regarding legal guidance for asylum seekers is also changing, with NGOs being excluded and only lawyers from the Athens Bar Association now handling it, receiving a bonus of €250 per person for each undocumented migrant who opts for voluntary departure.

The government’s interpretation is that migration policy cannot be limited to registration and accommodation, but must complete the cycle: identification, assessment of asylum claims, distinction between those with refugee status and those without, and for the latter, return.

Crete in focus

Crete remains a separate chapter, as it faced increased pressure in recent months from the Libyan route. The facility in Agia Chania is now fully operational, covering initial reception needs for arrivals on the island.

At the same time, in Heraklion, work is progressing on the preparation of a new site in former Skouloudis warehouses in the Athanatoi area, expected to be ready within the month. The operation of a second facility on the island is considered critical, as it allows better distribution of pressure between Chania and Heraklion.

Meanwhile, according to reports, a decrease in flows to Crete has been recorded over the last 20 days. This is linked to improved cooperation with Libya following recent high-level contacts, including the visit of the deputy head of the Libyan National Army General Command, Saddam Haftar, and his meeting with Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. Athens assesses that the Libyan factor is decisive for future developments.

The next major step concerns the implementation of the European Migration and Asylum Pact. The new framework is based on faster screening, rapid distinction between strong and weak asylum claims, border procedures for those with low chances of recognition, and immediate linkage of rejection decisions with return procedures.

Within this context, consultations are advancing rapidly for the creation of so-called return hubs in African countries. These are return processing centres in third countries, which can operate only through special agreements and specific legal guarantees.

Return hubs

At the end of July, a technical meeting is scheduled in Copenhagen to examine the practical parameters of the plan. This will be followed by visits of technical teams to African countries to assess infrastructure. At the end of August, a new meeting of the ministers of Germany, the Netherlands, Austria, Denmark and Greece is expected, likely again in Copenhagen.

For Greece, the discussion is of particular importance, as returns remain the most difficult aspect of migration policy. If return hubs are implemented, they will function as a complementary tool, not a substitute for returns to countries of origin.

The challenge for Minister Plevris is now to demonstrate that tightening policy does not remain on paper. The reduction in arrivals, the increase in returns, the operation of facilities in Crete, and Greece’s participation in the European return hub plan form the narrative of a government policy attempting to turn migration from a field of constant pressure into a field of control.

The coming period will show whether the picture of the first half of the year can be stabilised. Because in migration, routes change quickly and smuggling networks adapt. However, the message the government seeks to convey is clear: fewer arrivals, more returns, and enforcement of rules from first reception to final removal.

Photo: EUROKINISSI