Hello. Yesterday was the day the OPEKEPE issue returned to the spotlight because of the European Public Prosecutor’s Office’s decision to refer four political figures from New Democracy (ND) for misdemeanor charges while clearing seven others (and two more were cleared by the Greek judiciary). You would not call this a cause for celebration for the government, but you could certainly call it something of an embarrassment for the prosecutors, as well as for the opposition, which had relentlessly spoken of a government made up of defendants. At the moment, the only person I see in prison is a close family friend of PASOK leader Nikos Androulakis. Of course, Androulakis is not responsible for that either; it is simply worth mentioning because Nikos arguably went too far in his attacks against his political opponents. I also hear that the European and Greek prosecutors are continuing unabated with investigations wherever European funds have been disbursed, so we should bear in mind that both their work and their conflict with the government (because it did not grant them a five-year renewal) are likely to produce more episodes. The main takeaway from the whole affair is that—despite certain politically unacceptable actions by the European judicial authorities—at least one good thing has come of it: OPEKEPE is finally being cleaned up, because scandal and corruption had existed there for decades.

ND election slates

Asked yesterday, government spokesman Pavlos Marinakis confirmed that ND MPs being prosecuted over OPEKEPE will remain on the party’s electoral lists, as the presumption of innocence still applies. Moreover, many legal experts believe the prosecution will collapse during the trial scheduled for the autumn, since under the new Floridis law, trials involving political figures are conducted under fast-track procedures. This means that Kostas Skrekas will be a candidate in Trikala, Christos Boukoros in Magnesia, and Maximos Senetakis in Heraklion. There are still two unresolved cases concerning Kostas Karamanlis and Sofia Papakosta. As for Karamanlis, the case against him collapsed decisively, but he has already declared his intention to withdraw from the Serres electoral list, and a Karamanlis does not easily go back on his word. He has also stated that he wants to prove his innocence before the courts, while he still awaits the Judicial Council’s decision regarding the Tempi railway disaster. As for Papakosta, from Trikala, she had announced her intention to withdraw while facing felony charges, but now that the case has been reduced to a misdemeanor, she will run for office again.

Afternoon parliamentary group meeting

On Monday, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis will convene ND’s Parliamentary Group, as previously announced, ahead of the parliamentary procedures concerning the constitutional revision. Naturally, there will also be a broad discussion following the prime minister’s presentation, although it is unlikely to last very long since the meeting is scheduled for 4:00 p.m. The reason is that Monday is the feast day of Prophet Elijah, and MPs have various obligations at churches and chapels in their constituencies—these are not days to neglect one’s local parishes.

Lunch at Athénée, with the Thessaloniki International Fair on the menu

After yesterday’s Government Council for Economic Policy meeting concluded at the Maximos Mansion, one of my sources spotted the Finance Ministry duo—Pierrakakis and Petralias—walking into Athénée on Voukourestiou pedestrian street. When someone asked them, “What’s on the menu?”, they jokingly replied, “The Thessaloniki International Fair measures,” although it is certain that beyond the social and political gossip, the two also held a substantive discussion. As for who paid the bill, I don’t know—but generally speaking, within the government, Petralias is the one who ends up paying the bill.

Hatzidakis briefs ministers on the EU budget

Discussions on the EU’s new Multiannual Financial Framework are ongoing, and Deputy Prime Minister Kostis Hatzidakis briefed the Government Council for Economic Policy by presenting both the progress of negotiations and Greece’s positions. He even noted that the final agreement may be concluded during Greece’s EU Presidency in the second half of 2027, making effective representation of the country even more critical. The stakes are high. Greece currently has €52.5 billion available, including Recovery Fund resources, while the target for the next programming period stands at €49.5 billion. The government’s objective, through appropriate alliances and successful negotiations, is to maintain Greece’s European funding essentially at current levels and avoid the much-discussed “fiscal gap” after 2028, about which some have already begun sounding alarm bells.

Great turmoil, wonderful situation

Who would have imagined that Alexis Tsipras’s favorite phrase—”great turmoil, wonderful situation”—which he used to describe the collapse of the old political system, would find its perfect application within the party so closely identified with him? Then again, I am not convinced that what is happening inside SYRIZA causes its former leader much sadness. Quite the opposite seems to be true, as from behind the scenes on Amalias Avenue he himself is contributing to the disintegration of what was once Greece’s first left-wing governing party.

Dust and rubble

And when I speak of disintegration, I am not speaking theoretically. I mean it literally: dust and rubble. For the first time in history we are witnessing a parliamentary party adapting itself to opinion polls before elections have even taken place. The numbers are revealing. Within three years, SYRIZA has lost 32 MPs (with more expected), changed three leaders—Tsipras, Kasselakis, and Famellos—and appears headed for a fourth. The 2023 elections gave SYRIZA second place with 47 MPs. Today it has 15 MPs, with estimates suggesting that number will soon fall into single digits. It fell from second place to third behind PASOK, then to fourth behind the Communist Party (KKE), and is now heading toward fifth place, face-to-face with Kyriakos Velopoulos. The first mass departure came with the twelve members of the “Umbrella” faction, who founded New Left, only to later demonstrate that, besides being capable of self-organization, the movement also possesses remarkable talent for self-dissolution. The second wave of collective departures is unfolding now. Two MPs have already resigned (Katerina Notopoulou and Giorgos Karameros), while another (Spyros Kedikoglou) has announced his intention to resign without formally doing so. Meanwhile, since last Tuesday, declarations of independence have come in rapid succession from A. Panagiotopoulos, G. Gavrilou, Ch. Mamalakis, K. Barkas, P. Tsapanidou, K. Vetta, M. Korovesis, G. Psychogiou, and M. Kontotoli. And, as I hear, D. Kalamatianos, M. Zambaras, V. Kokkalis, and N. Kasimati are next in line. The last to close the door appears likely to be Olga Gerovasili, since her becoming an independent MP would automatically cost her the position of Deputy Speaker of Parliament.

New specifications for the Presidential Mansion reception

President Konstantinos Tasoulas is introducing changes to the traditional July 24 reception in an effort to restore some of its former prestige. First, invitations for politicians will once again include their spouses, a practice discontinued during the presidency of Karolos Papoulias amid broader spending cuts and the financial crisis. More lighting has been installed in the garden after the President insisted it be illuminated much more effectively. Hard liquor—whiskey, vodka, and gin—has also been eliminated. Only wine and the usual soft drinks will be served, such as Aperol, along with sour cherry cordial and iced tea. The entire menu will consist of finger foods, and ice cream will also be served. The Navy Band will perform, and in addition to classics by Hatzidakis, Xarchakos, Theodorakis, and others, the repertoire will include “My Way” and similar selections. At the well-known garden pavilion, the President will host the political party leaders, the Prime Minister, and the Speaker of Parliament for 20–30 minutes. If party leaders attend with their spouses, the spouses will also join them at the pavilion—the last time this happened was 25 years ago. In total, 1,697 guests have been invited. Besides current and former politicians, the guest list includes 509 individuals who resisted the military dictatorship, members of the judiciary, the chiefs of the Armed Forces, university rectors, executives from Greece’s systemic banks, shipowners, presidents of charitable foundations, heads of independent authorities, figures from the cultural sector, and members of professional and trade organizations. Four individuals have also been invited as special honorees: student G. Myriadis, who achieved the highest score in the national university entrance examinations (19.80); A. Oikonomopoulos, who achieved the second-highest score (19.75); teacher and president of the nonprofit “New Life in the Village,” P. Diamanti; and finally Wing Commander G. Chatzopoulos, the F-16 pilot who carried out the landing at Zakynthos Airport.

Piraeus Bank–IASO

At 10:32 p.m. yesterday, Piraeus Bank issued a statement regarding this column’s report claiming that “Piraeus Bank and IASO have reached a deal.” Banks do not normally issue announcements late at night, but in this case they had little choice. The Hellenic Capital Market Commission asked Piraeus Bank to comment on the report. CEO Christos Megalou had left London and was in the United States, so by the time everyone coordinated, it was already late. Naturally, Piraeus Bank’s statement (drafted by a lawyer) is accurate. “The Bank,” the statement reads, “denies that it is a contracting party or acquirer in the alleged agreement for the acquisition of IASO.” And that is entirely correct, because the buyer will actually be Strix Holdings, which is 25% owned by Piraeus Bank and 75% owned by Blantyre, the latter of which will assume management of IASO. The transaction’s structure is complex, and Oaktree may retain a stake, as there appear to be certain competition-related issues. As for the reported “plan to create an extensive proprietary healthcare network through acquisitions by Piraeus Bank or Ethniki Insurance,” which, according to the statement, “does not reflect the Bank’s intentions for the foreseeable future,” that is obviously true. However, this column was referring to the… unforeseeable future, because it makes little sense for a bank to own hospitals, and, above all, such an arrangement would hardly delight banking regulators. Regarding IASO itself, Oaktree (whose flexible structure allows it to retain investments beyond the maturity of a fund) has twice attempted to sell the hospital without achieving the desired result. On one occasion, it even received two strong offers—from BC Partners and a fund investing exclusively in healthcare—but because they fell €20–30 million short of the €400 million asking price, it declined to sell. Now, however, times have changed, and expectations have been lowered.

Alexandros Exarchou: “I say this with emotion… AKTOR is back”

It was not an ordinary shareholders’ meeting. It was a session laden with symbolism, personal reflections, and considerable emotion from Alexandros Exarchou, who wanted to mark the end of one era and the beginning of a new one for AKTOR. “Today is the most important corporate event of the past 25 years,” he said from the podium, publicly thanking Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and UBS for underwriting both the company’s capital increase and its international bond issuance. The central issue, of course, was the share capital increase. Over the previous few days, Exarchou had met with 80 institutional investors in London, Paris, and New York during the company’s roadshows, saying there was very strong investor interest in AKTOR. A key element of the company’s new strategy is broadening its shareholder base through a larger free float. The eventual ownership stake of the principal shareholders will depend on how the order book is ultimately built. The AKTOR CEO said that, under the worst-case scenario, Winex—whose shareholders are Dimitris Bakos, Ioannis Kaymenakis, and Exarchou himself—would retain approximately 33%–34%, down from about 39% today. In any event, its stake will not materially alter control of the company, but it will allow more international institutional investors to come on board. He then sought to paint a picture of the day after the transaction, asking shareholders to think about “what kind of company they will be talking about next Friday,” once the books have closed for both the share capital increase and the €1 billion bond issuance. According to Exarchou, AKTOR could then have: a market capitalization exceeding €3.5 billion, cash reserves of more than €1.2 billion, an order backlog of €5 billion, and even stronger financial performance if the acquisitions of HELECTOR and Thalis are completed. Updates on those acquisitions are expected in September. He added that negotiations are progressing very well, as are discussions regarding the FSRU (Floating Storage and Regasification Unit) at Agioi Theodoroi. Exarchou placed particular emphasis on growth accompanied by disciplined financial management, with the goal of keeping the Net Debt-to-EBITDA ratio below 3.0x. “My hair turned gray because of debt,” he told shareholders, clearly referring to AKTOR’s difficult years during the previous decade. As he put it, “AKTOR will never again experience what happened to it in the past,” repeating that the company “has learned its lesson” and that excessive borrowing “does not create a healthy business—it merely postpones the crisis.” The conclusion was visibly emotional. With his voice breaking, the head of AKTOR described the decision as the most important in the company’s history, arguing that from now on its greatest strength would be its financial resilience. “I say this with emotion… AKTOR is back,” were his closing words.

Metlen reaches a five-month high as short sellers come under pressure

Metlen has become a powerful counterweight to the Athens Stock Exchange, posting six consecutive sessions of gains that lifted the stock to €43.38. These are five-month highs—the stock has not traded at these levels since last February. Its strong performance has cushioned the broader market, which has now posted four consecutive losing sessions. Metlen’s rally is creating a major headache for international hedge funds holding short positions in the stock. As August 6, the date of the company’s first-half earnings announcement, approaches, the risk for short sellers is rising sharply. Investors are already pricing in exceptionally strong results, and any positive surprise could trigger a violent round of short covering—a classic short squeeze—because maintaining bearish positions against a company with such strong fundamentals is proving increasingly costly for hedge funds. The positive sentiment has also been reinforced by a recent report from Euroxx Securities, which reiterated its “overweight” recommendation and raised its price target to €56.80. The brokerage forecasts strong earnings growth, expecting: EBITDA to exceed €1.5 billion by 2028, EBITDA to surpass €1 billion in 2026, and first-half 2026 EBITDA to comfortably exceed €500 million. The group’s main growth drivers are expected to be: expansion in metals, favorable aluminum prices, its asset-rotation model, and gallium production beginning in 2028.

The bull case for GEK TERNA

AXIA’s report on GEK TERNA, authored by Konstantinos Zouzoulas and Apostolos Stamenas, contained a wealth of analysis and effectively illustrated the breadth of the group’s prospects. Its base-case valuation places the stock at €55.20, up from the previous €44.20. However, the optimistic scenario raises the target to €62.40, based on the assumption that the company will secure additional concession contracts over the next three to five years by investing roughly €1 billion of its own capital while achieving returns comparable to existing projects, in the 15%–17% range. The analysts consider this scenario realistic because GEK TERNA now has: a strong capital base, investment-grade status, and a net cash position. These factors enable it to pursue projects worth more than €5 billion over the coming years without weakening its credit profile. What might those projects be? The report outlines a specific pipeline centered on: motorway concessions in Attica, new extensions of the Attiki Odos motorway, additional road projects and public-private partnerships throughout Greece, waste and water management projects (AXIA expects a new wave of PPP tenders, particularly in Attica, and believes GEK TERNA’s 12.8% stake in EYDAP creates additional opportunities), and concession projects throughout Southeastern Europe, excluding projects not yet on the horizon.

What might we see at Jumbo?

Although Jumbo has a market capitalization exceeding €3 billion, shareholder participation at its annual general meeting—as mentioned yesterday—was remarkable. A total of 72.98% of the company’s share capital was represented, demonstrating that investors remain far from indifferent despite the stock’s 19% decline since the beginning of the year. Even the remuneration report—which had attracted objections that appeared largely unfounded—was approved with 69.6% of the votes represented at the meeting. The highlight of the meeting, however, came with the final question from a retail shareholder, who asked Apostolos Vakakis how he felt about the sharp decline in the company’s share price and whether he intended to take any action. His reply was simple: “Wait two days and you’ll see.” As a result, today is of heightened interest, particularly regarding this afternoon’s announcements. In recent days, several large blocks of shares have changed hands. Yesterday, following Vakakis’s remarks about the share price and the possibility of another extraordinary distribution to shareholders before year-end—although without committing himself—Jumbo’s stock closed more than 2% higher.

Qualco wakes up

Qualco gained 3.3%, closing at €5.67. Despite yesterday’s rally, however, the stock still has considerable ground to recover, having fallen 13.4% year-to-date since trading at €6.50 at the beginning of 2026. The advance was accompanied by heavy trading activity. More than 360,000 shares changed hands, generating turnover of €2.01 million. This was the fifth-highest trading value in the company’s short history on the Athens Stock Exchange, where it has been listed only since mid-May 2025. More broadly, the return of buyers in such volumes suggests renewed investor interest at price levels viewed as attractive.

Changes at Avramar

Canada’s Cooke Aquaculture has rolled up its sleeves to restore Avramar to normal operations. A few days ago, it reshuffled the company’s board by appointing two highly experienced Cooke executives, Mark Ryan and Matthew Roach. Ryan managed one of Cooke’s largest acquisitions, leading Tassal both before and after its integration into the Canadian group. Roach, who serves as Director of Corporate Business Alignment at Cooke Aquaculture, has many years of experience in business transformation and the integration of large organizations. Cooke entered Avramar as a strategic investor and acquired the company. It is the world’s largest privately owned aquaculture production and marketing company, employing more than 13,000 people and operating throughout the Americas, Europe, and Australia. Following the rescue of Avramar—which had come under the control of Greece’s banks because of severe financial difficulties—Cooke now plans to use the Greek company as the cornerstone of its Mediterranean operations. Its strategy is to combine economies of scale with greater production efficiency, as it sees significant growth potential for Greek seafood products in international markets. The goal is to leverage Cooke’s global commercial network so that Avramar’s products can be positioned in higher-value markets, particularly in North America and Europe.

Greeks are locking in shipping’s next big bet early

The activity recorded in recent weeks in the market for very large ammonia carriers (VLACs) has not gone unnoticed. In the international shipping market, it is being noted that Greek companies are not waiting for the ammonia market to mature, but are choosing to invest early, securing shipyard slots before long waiting lists emerge. According to market sources, Dynacom, Capital Maritime & Trading, and Evalend Shipping have recently placed orders for a total of eight VLACs at the Chinese shipyard Hengli Heavy Industry. According to shipbrokers, this move has a strategic rather than a purely opportunistic character. The interesting point is that these vessels are not intended exclusively for ammonia transportation. Until the ammonia market develops, they can operate normally in liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) transportation, taking advantage of today’s strong freight market. In other words, the companies are not simply betting on the fuel of the future; they are acquiring a fleet with significant commercial flexibility. Shipping circles estimate that the additional investment required to give a vessel ammonia-carrying capability is relatively limited compared with the total construction cost, making the choice even more attractive. By contrast, the value of this flexibility could prove decisive in the coming years, as the energy transition creates new demands in maritime transportation.

Why Pistiolis is selling the megayacht before taking delivery — the message he is sending to Wall Street

Wall Street has an unwritten rule: when a market cycle turns in your favor, you do not scatter capital on high-prestige projects; you direct it toward areas where returns can multiply. This is how American investors are interpreting the decision by Evangelos Pistiolis’s Rubico Inc. to abandon the under-construction megayacht and return entirely to tankers. At first glance, the move appears to be a simple divestment. In reality, however, it is a clear message to the market. The company is choosing to convert a non-productive asset into liquidity for its core fleet. If the sale is completed at the €30–35 million level, Rubico will also eliminate additional capital commitments of more than €26 million until delivery of the vessel. Investors reward companies that demonstrate discipline in capital management and remain focused on their core business. And right now, that core business is tankers. With a fleet of two eco Suezmax vessels, Rubico appears to prefer “betting” on a sector where returns can create shareholder value rather than holding onto a luxury asset that offers more prestige than cash flow. On Wall Street, this choice has a name: Capital discipline.

Not a single Greek newbuilding order in the past week

Anyone who believes Greek shipowners have taken their foot off the accelerator is probably looking at the wrong side of the market. Because although no Greek newbuilding orders appeared during the past week, behind the scenes fleet restructuring continues with undiminished intensity. In the secondhand market, Greek interests were behind three significant vessel sales. The Capesize bulk carrier HEROIC (182,060 dwt, built in 2010 at Odense Staalskibsvaerft in Denmark) changed hands for $32.8 million. At the same time, the Kamsarmax vessel PENDULUM (82,619 dwt, built in 2006 at Tsuneishi in Japan) was sold for $14.5 million, equipped with a scrubber. In tankers, Greek interests also divested from the MR product tanker MINERVA RITA (50,922 dwt), which was sold for $16 million. The vessel retains features including: epoxy phenolic coating, Ice Class 1A certification, and the ability to transport clean petroleum products (CPP – Clean Petroleum Products). The real interest, however, lies not so much in the names of the ships but in the strategy. Greeks appear to be monetizing mature assets, creating capital for the next investment phase.

“Stop killing seafarers or the ports will be emptied”

It is not common for a shipowner to set aside freight rates, markets, and business interests in order to speak exclusively about the value of human life. That is what Alex Angelopoulos, CEO of ACA Shipping Corp, did with a public intervention that is already being widely discussed in international shipping circles. Following repeated attacks on commercial vessels in the Black Sea, the Greek shipowner is calling on the world’s leading shipping organizations to form a united front against Russia and Ukraine. His proposal is clear: the two governments should be given one week to provide written commitments that commercial vessels will no longer be considered military targets. Otherwise, he proposes a collective suspension of commercial port calls to the two countries. “War-risk insurance can cover financial losses. It cannot insure a human life,” he emphasized, calling on the international shipping community to mobilize.

New times, new customs in Germany

In German, there is an interesting word: Zeitenwende (pronounced approximately “tsai-ten-ven-de”), which literally means “turning point of an era.” It comes from: Zeiten (times, eras), and Wende (turn, transformation). The word Wende already carries particular historical weight in German because of the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. Deutsche Bank Research calculated that the German government will need to borrow more than €1 trillion during the five-year period 2026–2030. This means that every year Germany will enter the markets to borrow at least €200 billion. The cabinet approved the first draft of the federal budget for 2027, with record total borrowing of €203.6 billion—up from the €196.5 billion estimated in April and four times the €50.5 billion recorded in 2024 under the previous government. The major secret lies in the spending architecture of this new era. Of the 2027 borrowing: €118.7 billion will support the core federal budget, €54.9 billion will go to the Infrastructure Fund (€500 billion in total), and €30 billion will go to the Special Defense Fund. Core defense spending will surge from €82.2 billion in 2026 to €109 billion in 2027. The amount rises to €130.1 billion when Ukraine and security-related spending are included, with the goal of reaching 3.5% of GDP by 2029. Deutsche Bank forecasts a path toward 4% by 2030. Naturally, there are significant concerns. The BDI—Germany’s equivalent of the Hellenic Federation of Enterprises (SEV), the Federation of German Industries—warns that interest payments will nearly double: from €41.9 billion in 2027 to €80.7 billion in 2030. Almost one out of every five euros of future tax revenue will go toward servicing debt. The €34 billion budget gap for 2027 has been closed, but the federal government now acknowledges an additional €109 billion gap for the three-year period 2028–2030. Those active in bond markets understand that the Bund (German government bond) is no longer a scarce asset, with all that this implies for European spreads—and therefore for Greek spreads as well.