Former Golden Dawn MP Ilias Kasidiaris made clear within minutes of leaving prison that he intends to return to active politics, speaking of a comeback to the “front line” and promising a new political movement. He walked out of Domokos Prison in central Greece on 15 September, having served part of the 13-year sentence handed down in 2020, when a court ruled that Golden Dawn was a criminal organisation and convicted him as one of its leading members.

On Monday morning he announced that he is backing the Alliance of Greeks, a political formation whose legal representative is independent MP Giannis Dimitrokallis.

On whether he will stand himself, Kasidiaris said in the video announcing his support: “Whether I will be a candidate on party lists, an independent candidate in a constituency, or choose another legal formula for standing in the elections, you will find out on the day the candidacies are submitted to Section A1 of the Supreme Court.”

His declared intention to return to politics raises two main questions. Can a party with a member convicted of running a criminal organisation take part in elections? And could a Kasidiaris party bring to Greece the surge in far-right support that is unsettling Europe?

The legal barrier

Leading lawyers and constitutional law experts who have spoken publicly agree that Kasidiaris will remain outside the electoral process until at least 2033, with the current legislation the deciding factor. In 2023, after it emerged that Kasidiaris was still exerting real influence over the leadership of the Spartans party from his prison cell, the government tabled an amendment tightening the rules on the formation of electoral tickets. The Supreme Court can also examine whether a party is in effect led by a convicted person, even if that person holds no formal position. It did so in 2023, when it barred Kasidiaris’ National Party-Greeks from the election.

The amendment, passed by a large parliamentary majority, states that the ban on forming electoral tickets applies for the full length of the sentence imposed, counted from the announcement of the final conviction. It also states explicitly that neither serving the sentence nor its lapse of time alters that calculation. In effect, the time spent in custody no longer counts towards the way other legal consequences of a sentence are worked out.

Constitutional law professor Nikos Alivizatos argues that what matters is the length of the sentence imposed by the court, not the time actually spent in jail. Constitutional law professors Nikos Papaspyrou and Xenophon Contiades likewise put the end of the restrictions at 2033, noting that early release or the favourable calculation of time served does not change the result.

A lone candidacy is a more complicated matter. Constitutional law professor Spyros Vlachopoulos believes Kasidiaris could in theory stand as an independent in a single constituency, but says his election would be all but impossible because of the 3% nationwide threshold. In any case, Section A1 of the Supreme Court will have the final word when it assesses the electoral tickets.

Talks

Despite the clear constitutional reading, a first parliamentary core of supporters appears to be forming behind the scenes. It comprises Dimitrokallis, Giorgos Manousos and Dionysis Valtogiannis, three independent MPs who were elected with the Spartans in 2023. There are also reports of contacts with independent MP Nikos Papadopoulos, a former member of Niki, although no agreement with him has been announced. Press reports say talks have been held with former MPs from the wider right, but nobody has so far made a named public commitment to join.

The question, in any case, is whether all of them, led by Kasidiaris, can reshape the Greek political scene, whatever the courts eventually decide.

Experienced political analysts say Kasidiaris’ release may coincide with a strong rise of radical and far-right parties across Europe, but that does not mean the Greek scene is a faithful copy. In Germany the AfD is now polling close to 30%, and in France the National Rally stands above 30% in presidential polls.

In Greece, by contrast, the pool of voters to the right of New Democracy remains highly fragmented. Kasidiaris has a genuine core of voters who, as the Spartans showed in 2023, can be mobilised. So far, however, the available evidence does not point to a phenomenon on the scale of the AfD or the National Rally. The real question is therefore not whether he has electoral influence, but how far he can extend it beyond a specific, politically kindred core, and at the expense of which parties.

The polls

There is currently no published poll by a named polling company that officially measures a new Kasidiaris party. The press has, however, reported private surveys and pollsters’ estimates putting his potential support at 5% to 7%, while his lawyer Vasso Pantazi has spoken of as much as 7% to 8%. None of these figures is accompanied by a published sample or methodology, so they cannot be treated as a proper poll.

A firmer guide is the 2023 exit poll. Of those who voted for the Spartans (4.68%), 19.5% had backed Greek Solution at the previous ballot and 16.5% had voted for Niki, while only 1.5% came from New Democracy. A further 17% had previously abstained. The figures explain why the debate over a possible new Kasidiaris presence is chiefly about the balance of power among Greek Solution, Niki, Voice of Reason and a possible party led by former prime minister Antonis Samaras, and more broadly among the groupings that appeal to voters to the right of New Democracy.

The official results of the 2023 local elections are also a reliable indicator of a potential Kasidiaris party’s strength. His ticket, Free Athenians, headed by Kasidiaris while he was still held in Domokos Prison, took 8.33% in the Athens municipal race, with about 11,500 preference votes. The result was not negligible, but it fell short of his own camp’s expectations and was roughly half the vote totals recorded in the 2019 local elections.