With almost six months to go before France’s presidential election, a Le Pen–Mélenchon contest in the second round, on May 2, 2027, appears highly likely. According to a poll conducted by the Ifop Institute for television channel LCI, Marine Le Pen, the candidate of the right-wing National Rally party, is set to finish comfortably first in the opening round on April 18, 2027, with a share of the vote of around 36%. The leading contender for second place and qualification for the runoff appears to be Jean-Luc Mélenchon, candidate of the radical-left party France Unbowed, who is polling at half Le Pen’s level, with approximately 18% in the first round.

As for the other candidates, former prime minister under President Macron, Édouard Philippe, is shown receiving — in the best-case scenario for him — 15%, while Socialist candidate Raphaël Glucksmann is projected to receive no more than 13%. According to the poll, they are followed by eight other candidates from across the political spectrum, none of whom is currently shown reaching double figures in the first round.

According to the same poll, the combined vote share of candidates positioned on the right of the political spectrum is generally projected to exceed, albeit narrowly, 50% in the first round. The poll was conducted, according to the report, between October 27 and 29, among a sample of 1,650 voters. The margin of error ranges from 1.1 to 2.5 percentage points.