US Vice President JD Vance blames the war for the Republicans’ defeat in the midterm elections, arguing that a significant portion of voters who supported Donald Trump in 2024 chose the Democrats this time around.

In a lengthy post, Vance analyzed the data available to the Republican campaign team before the election, pointing out that turnout among their voters was not the main problem. Rather, he said, many of those who turned out to vote had already decided to turn against the party.

“The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night,” he stressed, arguing that the continuation of the conflict, combined with economic pressures and dissatisfaction with US foreign policy, shaped voting behavior.

“Our voters went to the polls, but they didn’t vote for us”

The US vice president explained that the Republican campaign’s data analysts had been closely monitoring the composition of the electorate, trying to determine whether it resembled the 2024 electorate closely enough to secure another victory.

Although opinion polls had forecast a major Democratic victory, turnout figures offered grounds for optimism. In some states, Republican turnout was satisfactory, he noted, and in others it was exceptionally high, while nowhere did it appear disastrous.

Vance also described a conversation he had with one of the most experienced data analysts he knows. He asked the analyst whether the figures meant Republicans could pull off a major electoral upset.

The answer, as Vance recounts it, was no. “We may do better than the polls suggest. But the data tells us that many of those who voted for Trump and Vance in 2024 are furious and intend to vote for our opponents. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us,” the analyst told him.

According to the US vice president, that assessment proved prophetic. In Florida, for example, Republicans had a nine-percentage-point advantage over Democrats in the composition of the electorate, only a few points below their advantage in 2024.

The four reasons behind the electoral shift

Vance stressed that there would be intense internal party disputes in the coming period over the reasons for the defeat. Citing a pollster whom he described as one of the most capable people he knows in politics, he said the pollster had warned him the previous day that Republicans would lose the nationwide congressional vote by a margin of 13 percentage points.

“I was pessimistic, but even I was shocked by that prediction,” he said. According to Vance, the pollster had identified that many Trump voters from 2024 were dissatisfied and planned to support the Democrats.

When asked what could bring them back to the Republican Party, their answers focused on four issues:

• Ending the war.
• Addressing the cost of living and inflation.
• Returning to the “America First” policy.
• Changing the relationship between the United States and Israel.

The US vice president added that these four responses accounted for almost all the views expressed by those who had turned away from the Republicans.

“Our voters turned out. And all four of the reasons above explain why many of them voted Democratic,” he noted, saying that the findings came from a pollster who had accurately predicted the result.

He also referred to Rachel Campos-Duffy, who had faced criticism on Monday for advocating a diplomatic solution to the conflict.

“It turned out that her political advice was correct,” Vance said, adding that she was also an excellent person.

Vance then predicted that, in the coming months, attempts would be made to offer misleading interpretations of the electoral defeat, particularly by figures from the political establishment.

“Everyone knows why we lost”

Returning to the election result, the vice president insisted that the main reason for the defeat was the war, arguing that even Donald Trump himself had acknowledged this the previous evening.

“If you want to argue that it was worth it, that it was worth losing the Senate for the next six years, then do so. Argue that it was a price worth paying. Whether one agrees or disagrees, at least that is an honest position,” he wrote.

“But everyone knows why we lost. And every honest discussion about how we move forward from here must start at that point,” he added.

Concluding his post, Vance said he was optimistic about America’s future and addressed disappointed Republican voters: “To those who are furious and want to say ‘we told you so,’ you’re right — you did tell us,” he acknowledged, urging them to channel their dissatisfaction into electing Republicans who share their political views.