The 2018 Russia World Cup is well underway and England, to the surprise of many, will face Sweden in the quarterfinals. Before the last World Cup in Brazil in 2014, bookmakers Paddy Power asked legendary physicist Stephen Hawking to create a formula for England to win the competition. It is worth remembering what the late scientists had to say.
“As we say in science,” he said, “England couldn’t hit a cow’s arse with a banjo.”
Hawking looked at two theories, assessing just what it takes to score in a penalty shootout and also what variables need to be in place for England to win in Brazil.
“Ever since the dawn of civilisation, people have not been content to see events as unconnected and inexplicable,” the Fellow of the Royal Society said in a press conference used to unveil his findings.
“They have craved understanding of the underlying order in the world. The World Cup is no different.”
Paddy Power used the excuse that Hawking may be slightly better qualified to call the World Cup than Paul the Octopus, who was employed to predict the outcome of matches during the 2010 competition.
The optimal conditions for England success:
Hawking analysed 45 World Cup matches which England had played in since their win in 1966 to draw some conclusions regarding the recurring factors which affect the nation’s performance.
He used a technique called “General Logistic Regression Modelling” to assess the variables and work out the chance of an England victory.
“Statistically, England’s red kit is more successful,” he began, in a video made by the bookmakers to explain Hawking’s findings.
He also found that the Three Lions are 10% more likely to win with a 4-3-3 formation, rather than a 4-4-2, with England boasting a 58% winning record for the former.
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