Hello, you must certainly remember the first phase of COVID, when there was chaos among the infectious disease experts, with each one giving their long and short takes (almost) and in the end, we were almost driven crazy by the theories. Well, three years later, we’re living pretty much the same story, this time with seismologists. The main “match” right now is between Kostas Papazachos and Kostas Synolakis. Papazachos spoke yesterday about “Hollywood scenarios”, referring to Synolakis, who didn’t rule out the possibility of earthquakes affecting the volcano, while Synolakis has other opinions on tsunamis and so on, without being part of the Seismic Risk Committee. They have beef, as we commonly say, and seismologists, just like in every job, are no different, but here it’s a little… more dangerous.

Tempi and the numbers

I spoke yesterday with a source at the M.M. who is looking at the numbers in the wake of the protests for Tempi. He explained to me that according to their research (which was completed a week ago), they see a relatively small decline for the ND by about 1-1.5 percentage points, but the main issue is the restriction of the “voter pool” of the ruling party, i.e., those who respond positively if they could vote for ND. The source, however, sees a bigger problem for PASOK (yikes), which is in free fall, with its opposition strategy not helping, and he even told me that in the models they are seeing, the party is losing about 4 points after the re-election of Androulakis. As for SYRIZA, we don’t need to say it again, flatlined. On the other hand, Velopoulos and the KKE are fighting for third place, though they’re not skyrocketing, while the winner is also Zoí, who has “secured” a 6% and is “cannibalizing” Kasselakis’ party, which has once again taken a spot on morning talk shows – after all, that’s about all the guy’s good for, he can only go up to Katérina. As for Latinopoulou, she continues to steadily “snag” votes, earning from ND. As the source told me, her influence is nationwide, and her main audience is middle-aged men, which, as a middle-aged person myself, I fully understand.

The (green) brave men of Brancaleone (Nikou A.)

The case with PASOK’s Pre-investigation, which also led to the announcement of the resignation of Deputy Minister Triantopoulos, is starting to cause mockery for the (green) brave men of Brancaleone, Nikos A., who suddenly discovered, six months later, the existence of a related provision from the prosecutor that was forwarded to Parliament. To go even further back, in May 2024, the Vice-President of Parliament and PASOK MP, Odysseas Konstantinopoulos, announced to the Assembly the referral of the case file regarding Triantopoulos and the then ministers and deputy ministers Plevris, Papadopoulos, and Rapti. Meanwhile, the supplementary case file that was sent to Parliament at the beginning of August, specifically on the 6th of the month, was almost published in its entirety in the Sunday ESTIA on August 11th. The funny part is that yesterday, on a panel (Action24), they asked PASOK’s spokesperson Kostas Tsoukalas about the publication, and he gave the legendary response: “Sorry I didn’t read ESTIA that day,” while insisting that PASOK was only informed a few days ago. You may ask, “Well, maybe they don’t read newspapers, but didn’t Konstantinopoulos notify our leader Nikos that a case file regarding Triantopoulos had arrived in Parliament?” The answer I got from a PASOK member is that “for one to notify the other, they need to talk to each other.” Fair point.

When will there be government changes?

Meanwhile, Mitsotakis remains tight-lipped about government changes, i.e., the much-anticipated reshuffle, and I think he hasn’t decided yet when or who, as he will wait to see how the Tempi case unfolds, to see if Tasioulas becomes president, and then. For now, keep in mind that Gerapetritis is playing for the position of Deputy Prime Minister to move to M.M., and Staikouras is unlikely (almost impossible) to escape, so if two serious “pieces” leave the government chessboard, something broader will likely arise.

Olga paid the price

Olga Gerovasili got the bill from Koumoundourou, as President Sokhratis threw her under the bus twice in a 24-hour period, regarding Tempi. The trigger was Gerovasili’s honesty – being from Epirus – who claimed that fellow Epirus-native Kostas Tasioulas wasn’t the one who covered up the evidence regarding the dump. However, Famellos called for Tasioulas’ withdrawal from the Presidential race, after he locked the case files in drawers, as he said, stating he was willing to vote in favor of PASOK’s Pre-investigation. Now, I didn’t quite understand what SYRIZA gained from this, as Famellos’ “opening” wasn’t warmly welcomed by Androulakis either. Who knows what’s going on…

A difficult and awkward discussion

Two months is the duration of the exclusive negotiation agreed upon between Piraeus Bank and CVC, although the deal should be considered complete. Piraeus Bank has been working on it for several weeks now and has examined all profitability scenarios, is aware of the need for a new information system, has calculated the cost of restructuring, the capital risk, the peculiarities of the sector, and generally has weighed and integrated all the parameters in the offered price of 469 million euros. Piraeus Bank wanted CVC to remain a shareholder to help with the restructuring, and the bank is completely satisfied with the CEO of the Insurance Company, D. Mazarakis. H. Megalou has informed NN and Ergo, with whom Piraeus Bank has a bankassurance partnership, that everything remains as it is. The next period will bring a difficult and awkward discussion that CVC needs to have with the National Bank, which will also concern the National Bank’s share in the Insurance Company, to then clarify the relationship between Piraeus Bank and the National Bank.

The Impact on Capital and the Gold Portfolio

Piraeus Bank will seek to utilize the provisions of the Danish Compromise, but there are many doubts, which is why they are not fully relying on it. They estimate the impact on the CET 1 capital ratio at around 1.5 percentage points, meaning it will fall to around 13.5%, which is 3.5 percentage points above the minimum limit. The bank has valued National Insurance at 670 million euros, which is 8.5 times its earnings, while the average for such transactions is between 10 and 12. The offer is 1.5 times the book value of the insurance company, and the return on capital invested by Piraeus Bank is estimated at 12%. The most pleasant aspect of the acquisition is that Piraeus Bank gains access to National Insurance’s investment portfolio. The current value of the investment portfolio is 3.4 billion euros, with 2.24 billion in bonds, 472 million in mutual funds, 614 million in unit-linked products, and approximately 29 million in stocks.

The Czech Who Wants the Greek Marinas

The well-known Czech businessman Jiří Smetec, famous for his investment in OPAP, appears to be interested in expanding his presence in Greek marinas. Emma Capital, through its subsidiary MARINA 21 Group, has already acquired a stake in the marinas of Porto Heli and Ermioni after an agreement with Tethys, linked to Nikos Vardinogiannis. In Ermioni, a 20 million euro investment is already underway to upgrade the marina and create modern infrastructures, accommodations, commercial spaces, etc. It’s worth noting that Smetec has also acquired PROPHARM and other companies in the wholesale pharmaceutical trade in Greece, as well as controlling Box Now, the largest player in the domestic smart lockers market, in which PCP, the investment arm of the Olympia Group, holds a 12.5% minority stake. The investment in Box Now has already exceeded 42 million euros, and the company has installed about 2,400 automatic parcel collection machines (lockers) with more than 120,000 lockers. Its investment plan foresees network expansion in 2025 across ten islands, including the North Aegean, Dodecanese, Cyclades, and Ionian.

DEI Reaches New Heights

Two significant milestones were achieved by Avenue of Athens, which is back on track to reach new heights, as it neared its 14-year record of 1,550 points. With a 3.7% jump, Coca-Cola reached 35.5 euros, marking a new historical high. It’s worth recalling that the previous record for the stock was 35.09 euros on July 3, 2019. In a similar pattern, DEI gained 3.5%, closing at 13.35 euros. This is the highest closing price in nearly 15 years. During the session, the stock even reached 13.44 euros last Friday, January 31, and the next target is the 13.46 euros from August 18, 2010.

A Bit of a Cold Shower

DEI shone brightly yesterday on the stock exchange board, but at the same time, the results of Kotsovolos caused a bit of a cold shower. Slightly lower sales (711.07 million euros in the period May 1, 2023, to April 30, 2024, versus 742.23 million euros a year earlier) but a dramatic plunge in profits, as pre-tax profits dropped by 72%, reaching 3.79 million euros, while post-tax profits fell by 80.5%, to 2.04 million euros. Likely causes include reclassification of certain financial items by Kotsovolos, the absence of state subsidies for households replacing appliances, possibly the repayment of a 40 million euro loan to Curry’s, or even the dividends paid out. Although Kotsovolos’ transition to the DEI group didn’t go smoothly, Stassis’ management is optimistic, noting that the first synergies are starting. The two fines, totaling 2.7 million euros, imposed by DIMEA on Kotsovolos are expected not to have a significant impact on the results, but until they are adjudicated, Kotsovolos has already paid 1.16 million euros.

The Stock Exchange Celebrated

In the times we live in, markets are focused on the next day, day by day, week by week. Yesterday in Athens, the Stock Exchange seemed to find its rhythm, with Piraeus rising to 4.4 euros (+3.8%) on the back of National Insurance, Coca-Cola (+3.74% to 35.5€) gaining confidence from the interest rate cuts in the UK and the rise of the FTSE in London, TITAN (+3.46% to 44.9 euros) celebrating the success of its spectacular over-subscription in the public offering of its US subsidiary, and other blue chips following suit, with DEI (+3.49% to 13.3 euros) leading the pack, which seems to have a stable buyer with a deep pocket (5th in turnover on the Stock Exchange yesterday). Other bank stocks joined in the celebration with Piraeus, as Eurobank closed with gains of +2.28% at 2.37 euros, Alpha (+2.38%) at 1.745€, and National had a smaller increase (+0.98%) but a large trading volume exceeding 33 million euros. With all that, the General Index overcame the fears from the previous session and closed with a gain of +1.79%, at the day’s high of 1,544.49 points. Transaction value rose to 149.24 million euros, with 24 million in block trades. The energy sector was also celebrated yesterday, as besides DEI, ADMIE impressed (+3.49%) at 2.82 euros, and Metlen showed signs of covering previous losses (+0.72% to 33.4€), while Motor Oil gained +0.58% to 20.92 euros.

The platform… that creates portfolios

The most technologically advanced system in private banking customer service internationally has been brought to the Greek market by the Private Banking of Piraeus Bank, managed by Achilleas Kontogouris. This is a platform with exceptionally powerful computing capabilities that can process massive amounts of data very quickly and generate highly personalized investment portfolio suggestions. The client, with the help of their private banker, feeds the platform with their “wants,” and it instantly provides the suggested solutions. The service, called Piraeus WealthAdvisor, can be used both for the initial creation of a portfolio and for its subsequent modification, depending on market trends and the client’s goals.

New Code of Ethics (with fines) for supermarkets

In the coming days, the Minister of Development and the management of supermarket chains will sign the new Code of Ethics, aimed at protecting consumers from misleading offers and discounts. The new Code will come into effect on March 1st and will include clear examples with rules on what cannot be done in product pricing. From now on, any promotional activity in the supermarket will be calculated based on the lowest price at which the specific product was sold in that store in the last 30 days, not the “official discount” given by the supplier. As for the infamous multi-packs (“1+1 free” or “2+1 free” etc.), the product must also be available individually on the shelf, so the consumer can immediately compare prices. Like any proper Code of Ethics, this one will include strict penalties and fines, which could reach 1.5 million euros per case, depending on the severity of the violation, and in case of repeat offenses, the fine could even reach 3 million euros per violation. The supermarket chains agree with this but request a two-month adjustment period before the fines are enforced.

The new American Treasury Secretary tries to avoid Nixon’s mistakes

We all remember President Trump in the early days of his administration proclaiming that “he would demand an immediate reduction in interest rates,” with the logic that America would produce more oil, lower prices, and thus reduce inflation. However, the newly appointed Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessen, a seasoned expert in markets and capital, suddenly announced that President Trump “is not asking the Fed to cut interest rates.” We also saw the Federal Reserve ignore the President’s advice and keep the dollar’s interest rates at 4.25% to 4.5%, with no intention of further reductions. Treasury Secretary Bessen knows very well how disastrous it was for the U.S. when President Nixon insisted on lowering interest rates without considering the objections of the Federal Reserve. At that time, the Chairman of the Fed was Arthur Burns, appointed by Nixon. Burns succumbed to the intense presidential pressure to maintain a loose monetary policy during the 1972 election cycle. Nixon wanted to boost GDP through fiscal and monetary incentives during the election year, implement wage-price controls to cover the inevitable inflation, and then deal with the economic consequences after securing re-election. This, however, led the U.S. into a major inflationary period with high prices and unemployment. The independence of the Central Bank from political choices exists for some specific reasons…

Trump launches his own Bitcoin Mutual Fund

In the end, the return of the Bitcoin exchange rate to six-figure levels seems to have an explanation. Early yesterday morning (New York time), Trump Media Group, owned by President Trump, announced that it would be launching several Bitcoin ETFs. These are Mutual Funds, traded on Wall Street, and valued in the cryptocurrency Bitcoin. This decision makes Trump the first U.S. President in history to launch a new tradable Mutual Fund, let alone a Bitcoin ETF.