A successor to Justin Trudeau is expected to be announced today, both in the leadership of Canada’s Liberal Party and in government.

The Liberal Party is expected to announce its choice amid a trade war with the U.S. that could hurt the Canadian economy.

The next prime minister will have to negotiate with U.S. President Donald Trump, who he threatens to impose additional tariffs on Canada and may soon face the opposition Conservatives in a general election.

Trudeau announced in January that he was stepping down as prime minister after more than nine years in power as his approval ratings plunged, forcing his party to quickly set up party polls to replace him.

“I wonder if this is ideal for us in a bilateral crisis? I suppose not,” said Fagan, a professor at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy. “But on the other hand, the whole process is unfolding domestically, as it should.”

Mark Carney

Former central banker Mark Carney has the lead, garnering the most support from party members and the most money among the four Liberal candidates.

About two-thirds of Trudeau’s cabinet publicly support Carney, and a Mainstreet poll in late February showed Carney securing 43% support among Liberals compared to 31% for his main rival, former finance minister Christia Freeland.

Freeland touts her experience negotiating with Trump during his first term but finds it difficult to differentiate herself from Trudeau, having been one of his staunchest allies for years.

She left his administration in December after Trudeau attempted to replace her and she criticized the administration’s spending policies.

About 400,000 people are eligible to vote

A victory for Carney, aged 59, would mark the first time an outsider with no real political background would become prime minister of Canada.

Carney has said his experience as governor of two central banks – Canada and Britain – means he is the ideal candidate to take on Trump.

About 400,000 members of the Liberals are eligible to vote for the party leader. The party is expected to announce the first round of results around 6:30 p.m. local time (00:30 GMT).

During the campaign, Carney said he supported retaliatory tariffs against the US and a coordinated strategy to boost investment. He has repeatedly complained that the growth of the Canadian economy under Trudeau is not good enough.

The prospect of a new beginning for the Liberal Party under Carney, combined with Trump’s tariffs and his statements about annexing Canada as the 51st state of the U.S., has led to a remarkable surge in Liberal ratings.

In early 2025, the party was losing by 20 or more percentage points, but now, statistically, it is nearly tied with the opposition Conservatives in various polls.

The important decisions

Regardless of who prevails, the next prime minister is required to make important decisions immediately. The minority Liberal government will likely face a confidence vote when parliament reconvenes in late March, with the possibility of calling an election open.

He or she will, therefore, have to decide whether to proceed immediately to an election, avoiding the obligation to form a government. An election must be held by October 20.

According to opinion polls, neither the Liberals nor the Conservatives will be able to form a majority government.

Carney could legally serve as prime minister without a seat in parliament.

In 1984, John Turner was not an elected MP when he took over as prime minister after winning a contest for the Liberal leadership.