Hello! We had a sunny weekend, we are expecting a bit of cold again, one of the last before spring, and we are heading full speed towards a glorious Greek four-day weekend, the 25th of March. We are finally done with the long coverage of the cabinet reshuffle, which, I imagine, has tired both you and us for so many days—probably even Mitsotakis himself, who carried it out. It makes sense that he got exhausted because when you do it with a… gun to your head due to pressure from the Tempi case, with polls showing you at the lowest point of the five-year term and knowing it is the last one before the elections, well, it’s not easy. Also, by default, you are going to leave many people displeased, but what can you do—that’s part of a prime minister’s job. Now, since we haven’t discussed the reshuffle here yet, I will note a few of my own conclusions. This reshuffle has a narrative—bringing in fresher 40-year-olds to key positions, like Pierrakakis, Dimas, and Kyranakis. It includes a high-profile favor in a crucial sector—Papastavrou (we wish him luck dealing with pending issues, mainly in the Ministry of Environment). But it also involves quite a few balance-maintaining and strategic moves—mainly among deputy ministers—aimed at the party’s internal dynamics.

Hatzidakis

I particularly note the transfer of Hatzidakis, who did a very good job as Minister of Finance, and we will see if he manages in his new role or if he will… get lost in translation amid the tangled responsibilities of M.M., with Skertsos reportedly overseeing half the ministries—the non-productive ones, the social ones—while the economic ones will be handled by the new vice president. One power center is Mylonakis, another is Marinakis, another is Pierrakakis, and another is “The Favor.” Hopefully, these people will coordinate and succeed because, by the way, Moody’s upgrade is a very serious and extremely positive development for the country. Until things turn into a mess—if the Mitsotakis government collapses or a new Special Purpose Government emerges (Zoitsa, Nikolakis, and the minor players) with the Tempi case as its theme—whoever acts first may secure a job in deserted Greece, so hurry up.

Voridis – Epic

It is obvious that in this reshuffle, Voridis paid the price, ending up from M.M. to the Ministry of Migration Policy (due to the usual chain reaction). At the swearing-in ceremony, he was visibly displeased but did not lose his caustic humor. He appeared impeccably dressed, wearing a tie with Greek flags on it, and in front of about ten colleagues, when asked, “What’s going on, Makis, how do you see things?” he responded with a sardonic smile: “I’m fine; now we will all suffer the consequences of my appointment to the Ministry of Migration.” Classic Makis…

And Domna…

I must also admit that I found Domna’s return to a ministerial position just nine months after her removal rather odd—it’s not exactly common, is it? I predict that now that TV star Kasselakis has disappeared from morning shows, Domna will… give birth on camera on Tsimtsili’s show. Because, let’s face it, it’s a visually appealing, catchy TV image—her with a baby bump at the ministry. I also eagerly anticipate seeing Olga as Minister of Tourism alongside Anna Karamanli in the same sector.

And Vivino

Equally unexpected was the appointment of the young and well-liked Giannis Kefalogiannis, until recently Deputy Minister of Defense and now Minister of Civil Protection, considering that it is quite a heavy-duty position. But as we said…it’s time for the younger generation. Now, I don’t know how he will fare there—I hope he succeeds. I should mention that Kikilias fought hard for two years and did as well as he could—but I see him cutting down on his favorite hobby due to workload. And that hobby is none other than wine reviewing, which he does publicly on the well-known app Vivino, where he rates wine prices and quality. I should note that the new minister prefers Greek wines.

Kyranakis’…Inspections

Now, a few words about Kyranakis, a young man who took over the railways. On his first day in the position yesterday, he went to Larisis Station to see how stationmasters work, how they manage trains, whether there is a supervisor on the trains, and even entered a train driver’s cockpit. I am told that in the coming days, he will continue his visits to various railway points, without coordinating with the OSE administration. After all, to be honest, the current OSE administration is logically counting its days. Notably, today the new Deputy Minister of Transport will go to Parliament to answer a question from Zoe. All this is fine, but why are there leaks from Maximos Mansion saying he went without cameras… but with leaks and photographers? Keep your cool, guys…

Complaints and Grumbling in the Blue Parliamentary Group

The reshuffle stirred complaints and grumbling among ND MPs. To some extent, this was expected, as seasoned political reporters say that reshuffles usually cause more problems than they solve. After all, no prime minister has ever managed to place all his MPs in government positions. I hear that sidelining MPs who finished first in votes in national elections, while appointing their colleagues who finished last as deputy ministers, did not go down well within the “blue” parliamentary group. As characteristic examples, I am told about Imathia, where the third in election ranking, Lazaros Tsavdaridis, was given a position, while the first in votes, Apostolos Vesyropoulos (who had served as Deputy Minister of Finance in previous governments), and the second, Tasos Bartzokas, were left out. In Laconia, Thanasis Davakis, who had voted against same-sex marriage, was rewarded with a Deputy Minister of National Defense position, while the first in votes and supporter of the bill, Neoklis Kritikos, was sent to the “frontier” as a member of the investigative committee for Tempi. Kavala MP Makarios Lazaridis was also furious, as he believes his “sure” entry into the government was blocked to avoid further upsetting the dismissed Minister of Migration and his election rival in the region, Nikos Panagiotopoulos. Likewise, Dimitris Kalogeropoulos and Periklis Mantas are reportedly deeply dissatisfied—not because they expected to enter the government themselves, but because their rivals, Giannis Loverdos and Giannis Lambropoulos, were given positions instead. I wouldn’t be surprised if, in the next few hours, we learn that these two MPs request to be removed from the investigative committee for Tempi.

Athens-Centered Government

Beyond personal complaints, MPs also raise some reasonable concerns. For example, they note that in Northern Greece, where the party is showing a decline in polls, the presence of ministers has been reduced instead of strengthened. “Starting from Alexandroupoli, one has to reach Karditsa to find a minister,” they say, explaining that Evros, Thrace, and Macedonia have some deputy ministers but no ministers at all. Overall, the cabinet has only three elected officials from the provinces: Kostas Tsiaras in Karditsa, Christos Dimas in Corinth, and Giannis Kefalogiannis in Rethymno, while all the others are elected in the Attica basin.

Kyriakos Times Two

And since today is a new day and, as we said, we are done with the reshuffle, the Prime Minister is set to visit Kyriakos Pierrakakis at the Ministry of Finance. We will find out what is discussed after the meeting, but reports suggest that the new minister’s first priorities (besides salaries, housing, professional opportunities, and funding new business initiatives, as he himself stated) include the complete and final abolition of tax imputation criteria and easing the tax burden on freelancers. Additionally, note that some of the new Minister of Finance’s first meetings will be with the Independent Authority for Public Revenue (AADE) and the Financial Crimes Unit (SDOE).

Doxiadis the Prophet!

The other day, poor Aristos Doxiadis was sworn in as Deputy Minister of Development, and just a few hours later, he made a cryptic post on X, as if he knew (?) what was coming. He wrote: “Ides of March today. First day of my political tenure. I hope it doesn’t foreshadow anything.” Not even a day passed before he was ousted over a rather…far-fetched issue—claims that the company Apollon, where he was the legal representative, had been fined twice by the Competition Commission in 2009 for abuse of dominant position. Interestingly, Maximos Mansion claims he resigned on his own. That’s what I heard too, but I also heard that the company still owes a huge fine of around 10 million euros, so it’s not something you want to dig into. Now, who conducted the usual pre-appointment background check on Doxiadis at Maximos Mansion and let this slip through? Certainly not the “responsible” Mylonakis, who was even saying yesterday, “Don’t look at me.” So, who should we be looking at?

Mitsotakis – Hardalias

A careful reader scrolling through Mitsotakis’ Facebook post will find a flattering mention of Nikos Hardalias and the donation of 52 new ambulances from the Attica Region to EKAB. This is newsworthy in itself, given that the relations between Mitsotakis and Hardalias had hit rock bottom for months—partly due to some intermediaries stirring the pot. However, things have now changed, their relationship has significantly improved, and Hardalias was even spotted at Maximos Mansion a few days ago.

When the National Bank Learned They Were Losing the Insurance Company

Now, let’s move on to market news, starting with the behind-the-scenes details learned by this column regarding the deal between Piraeus Bank and Ethniki Insurance. When the people from CVC started talking with Piraeus Bank, they went down to Aiolou Street and informed the management of the National Bank. Naturally, no details were disclosed, and the information shared only concerned the existence of serious interest from a “European financial institution,” as it was specifically stated. I assume that this update was provided both to maintain appearances and in the hope of sparking a bidding war. As soon as the National Bank heard the news, they hired Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs to submit a competitive offer. In fact, through Deutsche Bank, an effort was made to mobilize an insurance company and submit a joint proposal with the National Bank. However, the attempt was not successful, probably because the insurance company did not respond 100%. The management of Piraeus Bank, along with their advisor UBS, monitored all this activity from the other side and decided to accelerate the process, which they did, in order to preemptively block any reaction. This is also why the negotiations between Piraeus and CVC were concluded without delay before the exclusivity period expired. As you can understand, relations between National Bank and Piraeus Bank have now entered a new, somewhat awkward phase.

Piraeus Bank Meets Analysts in London Today

Meanwhile, the Piraeus Bank team is in London today, presenting institutional investors with the changes in the bank’s business plan, as the acquisition of Ethniki Insurance gives them what is called “insurance risk.” The bank will answer analysts’ questions on everything from the acquisition’s impact on the balance sheet, capital, and financial results to the management and future prospects of the insurance company. Today’s meetings serve as a sort of prelude for the bank’s team, which will continue with Morgan Stanley’s roadshow starting on March 18 in the British capital.

New €600 Million Investment from AEGEAN for 8 Aircraft

A crucial move for AEGEAN’s growth and business plan is the order of eight additional A321neo aircraft, extending once again—this time for the third time—the initial agreement made with Airbus (since 2018, with the first delivery in 2020) for A320/321neo family aircraft. The company’s management has specifically chosen the A321neo version, which has a larger capacity and potential flight range, while four of the aircraft are Airbus A321neo LR (Long Range) models, designed for new destinations with flight durations of up to 7.5 hours. Sources familiar with the aviation market estimate AEGEAN’s investment for acquiring these eight new aircraft at approximately $600 million. If this amount is officially confirmed, it will bring the total value of the 58-aircraft order to $3.5 billion. Today, the company is also announcing its financial results for 2024.

Heading for a New Profitability Record

The 2024 financial results season for listed companies is underway, and everything indicates that we are heading toward a new record, with profitability already reaching €8 billion. Analysts are fairly confident in this positive outlook, as the announcements so far represent over 60% of the Athens Stock Exchange’s market capitalization, with banks contributing the largest share of profits and Metlen among industrial and commercial listed companies achieving the highest profitability. By the end of April, when the deadline for financial announcements expires, we will know whether a new profitability record has been set compared to 2023, when it reached €10.8 billion.

OPAP’s Peaks

Not only has OPAP’s stock surpassed the €17 threshold, but it has also reached its highest price since September 2009. The 16-year high of €17.50 for OPAP comes just days before the company announces its 2024 financial results, which are also expected to reach new highs. The results are due on Wednesday, and the investor conference call will take place the following day. Analysts anticipate a strong set of results with a significant increase in GGR compared to 2023 and an overperformance of EBITDA guidance. In this context, JP Morgan has already issued an “overweight” recommendation for the stock, with a December 2025 target price of €21.50. Beyond this, investors are also awaiting news on the proposed dividend, as a preliminary dividend of €0.60 has already been paid. OPAP’s market capitalization has now reached €6.47 billion.

Continuing at the Ministry of Finance

One of the key figures handling media communications for economic reforms is the spokesperson of the Ministry of National Economy and Finance, Omiros Tsapalos. He belongs to the new generation of executives in New Democracy and the government and has performed well, as confirmed by the fact that he will continue to represent the country’s top economic ministry under the new Minister of National Economy and Finance, Kyriakos Pierrakakis. For the record, it’s worth noting that K. Hatzidakis, after first testing O. Tsapalos at EFKA, was the one who established the position of official “Ministry of Finance Spokesperson,” a role that exists in various European countries, such as Germany, where there are more than ten “ministry spokespersons.”

When the National Bank Learned They Were Losing the Insurance Company

And now, let’s move on to market news, starting with the behind-the-scenes information the column has learned about the deal between Piraeus Bank and Ethniki Insurance. When the CVC people started talking to Piraeus Bank, they went down to Aiolou Street and informed the management of the National Bank. Naturally, no details were disclosed, and the briefing was limited to the existence of serious interest from a “European financial institution,” as it was specifically stated. I assume the National Bank was informed both for the sake of appearances and in the hope of sparking a bidding war. As soon as they heard the news, the National Bank hired Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs to prepare a competitive offer. In fact, through Deutsche Bank, an attempt was made to mobilize an insurance company to submit a joint bid with the National Bank. However, this effort did not succeed, probably because the insurance company did not respond fully. The Piraeus Bank management, along with UBS, their advisor, was closely monitoring all this activity from the other side and decided to accelerate the process to block any attempt at a counteroffer from the outset. That is why negotiations between Piraeus and CVC were completed without delay, before the exclusivity period expired. As you can understand, a new phase has begun in the relationship between the National Bank and Piraeus, and it is somewhat uncomfortable.

Piraeus Bank Meets Analysts in London Today

Meanwhile, the Piraeus Bank team is in London today, presenting the bank’s business plan changes to institutional investors, as with the acquisition of Ethniki Insurance, it gains what we call “insurance risk.” The bank will answer analysts’ questions on everything, from the impact of the acquisition on the balance sheet, capital, and financial results to the management and prospects of the insurance company. Today’s meetings serve as a prelude for the bank’s team, which will continue at Morgan Stanley’s roadshow, starting on March 18 in the British capital.

New €600 Million Investment from AEGEAN for 8 Aircraft

AEGEAN’s order of eight additional A321neo aircraft is crucial for its development and business plan, marking the third expansion of its initial agreement with Airbus (signed in 2018 with the first delivery in 2020) for aircraft from the A320/321neo family. The management has opted for the larger-capacity and longer-range A321neo version, with four of the aircraft being Airbus A321neo LR (Long Range) to serve new destinations with flight durations of up to 7.5 hours. Sources with knowledge of the aviation market estimate AEGEAN’s investment for these eight new aircraft at approximately $600 million. If confirmed officially, this brings the total order value for 58 aircraft to $3.5 billion. Today, the company announces its financial performance for 2024.

Heading for a New Profitability Record

The 2024 earnings season for listed companies is unfolding, and all indications point to a new record, with profitability already reaching €8 billion. Analysts are fairly confident in a positive outlook, as the announcements so far represent more than 60% of the Athens Stock Exchange’s market capitalization, with banks contributing the largest share of profits, and Metlen leading profitability among industrial and commercial listed companies. By the end of April, when the reporting deadline concludes, we will know if a new profitability record has been achieved compared to 2023, which stood at €10.8 billion.

OPAP Peaks

Not only has OPAP surpassed the €17 mark, but its stock has also reached its highest price since September 2009. The 16-year high of €17.50 comes just days before the company announces its 2024 financial results, which are also expected to set new records. The results will be released on Wednesday, followed by a conference call with investors the next day. Analysts expect a strong set of results, with a significant increase in GGR compared to 2023 and an outperformance of EBITDA guidance. In this context, JP Morgan has already issued an “overweight” recommendation for the stock, with a December 2025 price target of €21.50. Additionally, investors are anticipating news on the proposed dividend, as a pre-dividend of €0.60 has already been distributed. OPAP’s market capitalization has already reached €6.47 billion.

Continuing at the Ministry of Finance

One of the key figures handling media communication for government reforms is the spokesperson of the Ministry of National Economy and Finance, Omiros Tsapalos. A member of the younger generation of New Democracy and the government, he has performed well, as confirmed by the fact that he will continue as the ministry’s representative under the new Minister of National Economy and Finance, Kyriakos Pierrakakis. For the record, K. Hatzidakis was the first to establish the position of an official “Ministry of Finance Spokesperson,” a role that exists in several European countries, such as Germany, where there are more than ten “ministerial spokespersons.”

How Much Higher Can the Market Go?

The market appears to be heading toward 1,700 points, riding the wave of the investment-grade rating awarded by Moody’s. The General Index has already returned over 15% this year, reaching levels last seen in February 2011. A steady “ally” is the banking sector, with systemic banks extending their multi-year records. On Friday, it was Piraeus Bank’s turn to shine, comfortably surpassing €5 for the first time since April 2021. Alpha Bank reached €2.25, an eight-year high last seen in July 2017. Eurobank and National Bank continue to “travel” at levels last seen during the November 2015 recapitalization, with the latter firmly above €10. Additionally, Metlen closed above €38, now flirting with its all-time high of €39.56 from January 2024. However, there are visible signs of market overheating, which warrants caution.

Why Are Bank Stocks Rising?

Meanwhile, significant developments are unfolding in the economy, such as Moody’s upgrade, which formally closes a painful chapter. Bank stocks are in the spotlight, partly because banks are buying Greek bonds while simultaneously selling German bonds. This strategy locks in the spread—the interest rate difference between Greek and German bonds—which was below 80 basis points until yesterday. Now, with the investment-grade rating and the government’s borrowing needs fully covered for the year, the spread is expected to shrink further, regardless of interest rate levels. Banks benefit greatly from the spread’s reduction and the overall decrease in borrowing costs for their own bonds (MREL), which are substantial.

The “Icebreaker”

For every €10 billion of public debt, the full upgrade to investment grade is estimated—according to Public Debt Management Agency (PDMA) sources—to yield €150 million in annual savings. Over ten years, this amounts to €1.5 billion. The biggest gain came from the initial rating upgrades in 2023, which reduced borrowing costs by 80 basis points (-0.8%), already saving more than €850 million. Currently, the PDMA is not issuing bonds because the Greek government does not need funds. With €41 billion in cash reserves, the state’s actual borrowing needs are minimal. However, the PDMA acts as an “icebreaker”—breaking the ice, paving the way, and enabling Greek businesses and banks to borrow on much better terms with lower interest rates. This year, as Europe faces €850 billion more in borrowing needs than last year, Greece, through the PDMA, is keeping its bond yield curve stable, facilitating borrowing for Greek enterprises and banks, while also preparing for “pleasant surprises” in debt management. Perhaps that’s why today, during his visit to the Ministry of Finance, the Prime Minister requested the presence of PDMA head Dimitris Tsakonas.

Three New Schemes in the Development Law

The new Development Law will introduce three additional schemes with a total budget of €150 million, focusing on export growth, modern technologies/innovation, and social entrepreneurship, Minister of Development Takis Theodorikakos revealed yesterday. The geographic focus will be on the Greek regions to reduce social inequalities and address demographic challenges. Additionally, the Ministry of Development is preparing legislation to cut administrative bureaucracy by 25% and establish a National Digital Registry for businesses, products, and services.

Why Trump is Courting Greek Shipowners

The U.S. dominates many sectors of the global economy, but shipping is not one of them. Europe, led by Greece, followed by Germany and Denmark, overshadows the U.S. in bulk carriers, tankers, and container ships. That’s why Donald Trump is trying to engage Greek shipowners, urging them to shift their shipyard activities from China to India, as part of his strategy to influence an industry where the U.S. lags behind.

The American Airlines Pay Dearly for DOGE

The government efficiency program implemented by Elon Musk has its first business casualties. The stocks of American airlines have lost $20 billion in market capitalization over the last four weeks. United Airlines was the first to officially announce, on February 19, that government officials’ travel has dramatically decreased since the day Trump took office. United Airlines collects more than $1 billion annually from government officials’ trips. A few weeks later, on March 11, Delta Air Lines announced that it was revising its first-quarter 2025 profit outlook from +8% to +3.5%. Immediately, earnings per share expectations dropped by more than 50%. American Airlines announced the same downward revision of its forecasts and did not hesitate to declare a reduction in its routes to and from the capital, Washington. All this led to the collapse of the three airlines’ stocks on Wall Street.