Yesterday’s court ruling was a bombshell for Marine Le Pen. The “Iron Lady” of the French far-right was found guilty of embezzling nearly 3 million euros, with judges ruling that she used these funds to finance her own party through payrolls and staff who never actually worked for her in the European Parliament.

The sentence, which takes immediate effect, includes not only a suspended prison term but also a five-year ban on her civil and political rights. The court decision, beyond the political repercussions it reignites in France’s domestic scene, is also a personal test for both Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron, as the scenarios regarding the future of the president’s strongest political rival are limited—and yesterday’s verdict could signal the definitive end of her political career.

Scenario 1: The Appeal Court Reduces the Initial Sentence
Marine Le Pen, through her lawyers, announced she will appeal the initial verdict. Even if the appeal trial is “fast-tracked,” it will take time, though it is still possible that it will conclude before candidate registrations open for the 2027 presidential election. Should her appeal be successful, the five-year ban on her political rights could potentially be overturned—though this scenario currently seems unlikely.

Still, if her legal team pulls it off, she may be cleared of the charges—or at least some of them—and would regain eligibility to run for president. Even in that case, however, the path will not be easy, as Le Pen will face significant difficulty collecting the 500 mayoral endorsements required to be legally nominated. It’s worth noting that Le Pen herself has, since 2013, publicly called for lifetime bans and prison sentences for elected officials found guilty of embezzling public funds.

Scenario 2: Le Pen’s Sentence Stays Intact
If the appeals court upholds the initial sentence, Le Pen would still have the right—as any French citizen does—to appeal to the country’s Supreme Court. However, the sentence would remain in effect, as appealing to the highest court in France does not suspend enforcement of the ruling. In practice, this would mean that Marine Le Pen—regardless of how the case ultimately plays out—would run out of time and lose her eligibility to stand as a candidate. Based on the verdict and pending the full reasoning of the court, this seems like the most likely outcome. If so, Le Pen’s political career would likely be over—at least when it comes to the highest office in the country.

Scenario 3: The Initial Ruling Has No Immediate Effect
A third scenario envisions Le Pen being found guilty again in appeals court. The charges are serious, and the evidence appears too damaging for a drastic reversal of the initial ruling. Still, in this scenario, the court may decide that the ban on her political rights will not take immediate effect. Le Pen could then appeal once more to France’s Supreme Court, in a trial that would occur after the 2027 presidential election, in which she would still be able to run.

Should she be elected President of France, she could later use the ongoing legal process to her advantage, arguing that the Macron system failed to defeat the will of the people. In any case, Le Pen’s political future currently hangs in the balance, and she has several weighty decisions ahead.