With 240 square kilometers occupied in March 2025, the advance of Russian forces into Ukraine has slowed for the fourth consecutive month, according to a French Agency analysis of data provided by the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

On Russian territory, by contrast, Moscow’s forces have expelled almost all Ukrainians from the Kursk region. The Ukrainians no longer have a presence only in a limited area of 80 km2, i.e. 6% of the maximum area occupied during the Ukrainian offensive in Russia. The offensive that began in August 2024 resulted in the occupation of nearly 1,300 km2 in two weeks.

This zone of operations was reduced over the months that followed. By the end of 2024, this zone covered at least 500 km2. And March was marked by an acceleration of the Russian counterattack, which reduced the zone of over 400 km2 to almost 80 km2, an 80% reduction in one month.

In Ukraine, Russian forces took almost 150 km2 less in March than in February. Their advances have slowed each month after peaking at 725 km2 in November 2024, in the wake of significant Russian moves on the front line that began last summer.

Despite these slowdowns, the last 12 months have been marked by a Russian military advance into Ukraine as the Ukrainians fail to regain ground. From April 2024 to March 2025, the Ukrainians regained only 77 km2, when the Russians occupied 4,772 km2. Russian forces therefore occupied 4,695 km2, or 0.78% of Ukrainian territory that includes Crimea and Donbass.

In contrast, from April 2023 to March 2024, the Ukrainians had taken territory from the Russians in total. Although the latter had occupied 1,300 km2, Ukrainian forces had recovered 1,373 km2 at the same time.

AFP’s calculations are based on records shared daily by ISW, which relies on information transmitted from both camps and analysis of satellite photos.