Hello there, I’ll start with yesterday’s court decision regarding the tragedy in Mati, where 104 people lost their lives, which assigned no criminal liability to any political figure, because there was no intent involved. So, according to the law and Justice, all politicians “involved” in Mati were acquitted, yet the entire opposition, especially SYRIZA, are demanding prison sentences from Mitsotakis down to the last politician over Tempi. Question: did you see any statement yesterday from any party or organization about the Mati decision? Not that there has to be, just saying… and then the opposition wonders why they’re polling at rock bottom.

Basketball…

• I don’t know if anything will change today, but the government insists that if the Aggelopoulos brothers don’t show up to the meeting with Vroutsis, in the presence of Giannakopoulos, the league will be permanently suspended. Personally, I still don’t get why the law isn’t enforced (as it is in football), with strict penalties, and why someone is obliged to meet a direct competitor. In well-governed Western countries, there are laws and courts. Most likely, the two sides will meet in court, since they’ve already sued each other. In a democracy, you’re obliged to follow the law, but you also have the right not to meet someone you think is out to harm you. That’s all I’ll say.

Livanios’ presentation

• Today at 11:00, Theodoros Livanios will present to K.M. the results of the public sector assessment that ran through May — and the findings are quite interesting. In general, citizens are fairly satisfied with all the digital Gov-type services, but are deeply frustrated with the “face-to-face” services at the counter — e.g. urban planning offices or the Land Registry — and municipal services aren’t doing any better either when it comes to negative feedback.

Kyranakis in Brussels

• Although these days he’s heavily involved with the Highway Code and taxis, Kyranakis still has the hot potato of the railway system on his plate. The bill that was recently presented in Cabinet will soon be brought to Parliament for a vote, and will make its debut in Brussels this coming Friday, where he’s scheduled to meet with the new leadership of the European Union Agency for Railways, as well as Transport Commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas.

Friday the 13th…

• Friday (also) the 13th of June has been pinned to the parliamentary calendar as the likely date for the debate and vote on the proposals to establish a pre-investigation committee for Tempi. Reminder: so far, ND’s parliamentary group has submitted a motion seeking to investigate only former Transport Minister K. Karamanlis for the misdemeanor of breach of duty, while PASOK is calling for felony charges against Karamanlis, Spirtzis, and six deputy ministers. Today, a similar proposal is expected from SYRIZA MPs and “homeless” Kasselakistas, who, going all in, have added the Prime Minister to their indictment list.

And the possible scenarios

• At this point, two important constitutional clarifications for those unfamiliar:
  First: Setting up a pre-investigation committee requires at least 151 MPs in favor. Therefore, only ND’s proposal realistically stands a chance of triggering further investigation. The parliamentary majority makes clear it only sees faint indications of misdemeanors and will support escalating charges only if the Judicial Council recommends it.
  Second: a proposal to press charges that is rejected by the full assembly leads to permanent shelving of the case. In this context, it wouldn’t be surprising if the government majority proposes withdrawing the opposition’s proposals, so that the option to revive felony charges remains open — if top judges call for it. But if the opposition insists, then Friday night, June 13th, Parliament will set up 9 ballot boxes, one for each person involved.

Gerapetritis and the vital relationship with Egypt

• Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis is expected in Cairo today for direct negotiations with the Egyptian side about the future of Saint Catherine’s Monastery in Sinai. His personal visit, rather than a delegation led by Deputy Minister Alexandra Papadopoulou, is reportedly due — according to high-level diplomatic sources — to the Sisi government’s wish for a political, not technical, solution. The same sources tell this column that Greece accepted the request because “our relationship with Egypt is of vital importance and must be preserved.”

The best Foreign Minister ever

• Since we’re on foreign affairs, let me pass along an amusing scene from the hallways of Parliament, right outside the entrance to the Chamber floor where the ministerial benches are. Minister Gerapetritis was walking out, Minister Georgiadis was walking in, and their chance encounter drew some attention. After hugs and kisses, Adonis shouted to the Parliament press corps: “The best Foreign Minister ever!” Something tells me he didn’t say it for Gerapetritis to hear…

They didn’t come to terms over DELTA

• There was ultimately no happy ending to the talks that Spyros Theodoropoulos (and friends) held regarding the acquisition of the dairy company DELTA. The two sides were significantly apart—specifically by about €100 million—so bridging the gap wasn’t easy. As a result, DELTA remains on the market for sale, with CVC asking for €300 million. However, it’s not out of the question that, in the medium term, we might see another round of negotiations between Theodoropoulos and CVC.

Mitsotakis’ visit to Volos and Trump’s tariffs

• On Thursday, Kyriakos Mitsotakis is heading to Volos to tour Metlen’s defense equipment units, which are preparing to enter the defense game with force. Five different factories in various stages of development (some completed, some under construction) are set to work on five armament programs, as Evangelos Mytilineos revealed at yesterday’s regular general meeting. As he pointedly said, “I interpret the Prime Minister’s visit as a sign that the government truly intends, this time, to support the defense industry.” He added that the visit is taking place at a time when all of Europe (and Greece too) is in discussions about armaments and how cooperation between European companies will work. In great form and open to all shareholder questions, Metlen’s chief—with a humorous but bitter truthfulness—hesitated to answer a shareholder’s question about U.S. tariff policies. “Maybe for the first time in all the years I’ve chaired general meetings, I can’t give you an answer. Why? Because I don’t know. I don’t know how President Trump will wake up tomorrow. I don’t know what he’ll do. If you told me there were decisions on tariffs, I’d happily explain. Right now, no one has a clue. He slapped a 25% tariff on steel. Then he visited Pennsylvania, someone said something, and he bumped it to 50%. Next visit, he might say 100%. Can I make a forecast?”

GEK TERNA’s coffers are filling up

• The GEK TERNA group is showing a high level of liquidity, as by the end of the first quarter, its cash reserves were just shy of €1.5 billion. Analysts estimate that the group’s treasury will further swell this year, with €60 million from the financial distribution tied to the New Attiki Odos concession, and about €80 million from Latsco for acquiring a 10% stake in the concession. On top of that, additional momentum is expected from funds—according to market sources—that the group will receive once the deal between HERON and NRG (Motor Oil) is finalized. Meanwhile, construction operations are also expected to strengthen the coffers, with strong profitability forecast for this year. GEK TERNA’s stock closed yesterday at €19.29, and AXIA, in a report, reiterated its target price of €27.40, following Wood’s earlier forecast of €27 three months ago.

Autohellas: -7% drop and an 86% dive in profits

• Autohellas’ performance in the first quarter—the company’s seasonally weakest—was judged harshly by the market, pushing its stock down 7% yesterday. What did the financial statements reveal? The glaring red flag for investors was the 86% drop in profitability, which at first glance justifies their reaction. However, this was mainly due to the absence of extraordinary gains that had appeared in the same period in 2024, stemming from the closure of interest rate swap contracts. Otherwise, sales remained steady, and a notable point is that revenue from car rentals in Greece rose by 9.6%—driven by both short-term and long-term rentals. In short-term rentals, even in the traditionally weak first quarter, demand increased due to rising tourist arrivals. Autohellas management expects this tourism-driven momentum to continue in the coming periods, positively impacting demand for short-term rentals. As for long-term leases, there was a notable uptick in new vehicle deliveries, reflecting heightened demand and new contract signings. On the flip side, car trading in Greece saw a 3.7% drop in performance, attributed to two factors: the overall market declined in Q1, and competition intensified, with new manufacturers and brands—mainly from China—entering the scene.

Astir: Revenue of €127.62M and profits of €34.39M

• Real estate sales completed in 2023, which had… catapulted revenue and profits that year, are the main reason behind the marked drop in performance for Astir Palace Vouliagmeni in 2024, according to financial statements released last Friday. Thus, the company’s turnover fell to €127.62 million in 2024, compared to €295.37 million in 2023, while operating profits dropped to €34.39 million from €177.1 million. Still, the new owner’s management—under shipowner G. Prokopiou—emphasized in the report that “nonetheless, the hotel unit (i.e., the Four Seasons) and the food & beverage division showed a significant 8.27% performance increase in 2024.” Let’s break it down: accommodation revenue in 2024 was €82.42 million versus €76.63 million in 2023. F&B revenue was €36.31 million in 2024 versus €33.93 million in 2023. Land sales revenue in 2024? Zero—compared to €177.5 million in 2023. Other revenue hit €8.89 million versus €7.3 million in 2023. These other revenues mostly came from wellness services, spa services, and cancellation fees. For this year, management estimates that “despite intense competition, it remains confident in its market-leading position with a strategic goal of continually strengthening its operational and financial performance through 2025.” The company is confident it will achieve further growth in 2025, based on current market momentum and its ongoing successful trajectory.

Proodeftiki: Feels like the Sofokleous of 1999

• For the second day in a row, Proodeftiki’s stock hit the absolute limit-up (+29.75%) after breaking free from “Surveillance” status and returning to the Main Market of the Stock Exchange. Proodeftiki is one of those companies where no one really knows why it’s listed. Its survival hinges on a funding agreement with LDA Capital Limited (an alternative investment firm) for up to €20 million via phased private placements over three years. According to financial statements, Proodeftiki is doing “better” because in 2024 it posted €223,127 in group revenue and an EBITDA of -€64,000. What management hasn’t yet presented to investors is a coherent development plan or new ventures that would justify the €9.9 million valuation. As stated in the financials: “The management’s goal, after many years, remains for the Company to become a credible counterpart to domestic and foreign financial institutions, with the ultimate aim of improving its creditworthiness to speed up the implementation of its strategic plans.” And since business activities don’t grow like wildflowers, some believe the only stock market “utility” of Proodeftiki is to serve as a vehicle for another company’s listing. Plenty of people have gotten burned by these kinds of rumors—by those who pretend to know something, or think they do.

Stock Exchange: Sideways movement with visible optimism

• The numbers say that the dividend cuts from National Bank and Piraeus Bank would automatically weigh the General Index down by -0.65%. That’s exactly what happened as the index slid to 1810.46 points (-0.63%) and struggled throughout the afternoon to recover its upward momentum. By 5 PM it closed at 1818.67 points (-0.18%), but right after the auction session it jumped to 1824.48 points (+0.14%). Trading volume was solid at €181.15 million, with €26.89 million in block trades. The Alumil placement stood out, with 11 blocks worth roughly €8 million. Banks didn’t contribute to the index’s positive close—stocks like Coca Cola HBC (+0.91%) at €46.56, OTE (+0.98%) at €17.50, PPC (+1.2%) at €13.44, and especially AKTOR (+4.55%) at €5.52 picked up the slack. Aegean climbed back to €13.06 with a +2.37% gain. Jumbo rose +1.42% to €28.60, while Elvalhalcor (€2.35), Ellaktor (€1.29), EYDAP, and Motor Oil all posted gains above 1%.

Beyond Trump tariffs, there’s also Article 899

• The headlines and markets are busy with the infamous “Trump tariffs” negotiations. But there’s another looming nightmare still under the radar. It’s Article 899 in the so-called “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” which is currently under discussion in the U.S. Senate. Article 899 gives the Secretary of the Treasury the authority to impose “retaliatory taxes” on American investments from foreign countries that have imposed “unfair taxes” on U.S. companies. This means the Secretary will report to Congress quarterly on which countries, in his view, apply “unrealistic and biased” taxes. A classic example of such a tax would be the EU’s digital services tax. Based on the Treasury’s report, a 5% surcharge could be applied to investments from those countries in the U.S.—with the rate potentially increasing up to 20%. If Article 899 becomes U.S. law, many foreign investments in the States could be stalled, and the outlook for U.S. bonds and stocks may fundamentally shift. Since the “unfair, unrealistic and biased” tax list would be revised quarterly, few foreign investors would be willing to take on the added risk from sudden political decisions.

Artificial Intelligence in market surveillance

• Five years ago, in June 2020, a major scandal erupted at the German Stock Exchange. The German payments company Wirecard “lost” nearly $2 billion from its accounts, and COO Jan Marsalek, an Austrian, fled by private jet. After landing in Belarus, he made his way to Moscow, where he acquired a Russian passport under a new identity. Market rumors suggested Marsalek was operating under the guidance of Russian intelligence. The scandal blew up, costing €28 billion in total, and Germany’s financial watchdog BaFin came under fire for failing to see it coming. Now, BaFin says it has long since deployed AI systems to detect “dark financiers” trying to manipulate the market. BaFin’s bots flag “suspicious patterns” in transactions and the likelihood of shady behavior. After missing the €28-billion fraud at Wirecard, BaFin is clearly not taking any chances.