The world holds its breath awaiting the upcoming Trump-Putin meeting, with CNN attempting to outline the reasons why both sides agreed to a tête-à-tête at this time, as well as the potential scenarios for ending the war in Ukraine.

According to the American network, the U.S. President wants to leverage the power of his personality to achieve a deal, believing that Moscow‘s six-month intransigence can be overcome with a meeting with the Kremlin leader. Trump seems to continue believing that Putin can be persuaded to stop the war, despite the extreme positions he has taken.

As for the Russian leader, CNN estimates that he wants to buy time, having already rejected in May the proposal from Europe, the U.S., and Ukraine for an unconditional ceasefire. Instead, he offered two unilateral, brief, and insignificant pauses. Russian forces are advancing on the front lines in a summer offensive that could bring him close enough to his goals that any fall negotiations will revolve around a significantly altered status quo in the war.

Five Scenarios for the End of the War in Ukraine

1. Putin agrees to an unconditional ceasefire

According to CNN, this is a very unlikely scenario: that Putin would agree to a ceasefire with the front lines remaining as they are. The U.S., Europe, and Ukraine had already called for such a pause in May under threat of sanctions, and Russia rejected it. Trump backed off from sanctions, opting instead for low-level talks in Istanbul, which led nowhere.

The Kremlin is currently converting its incremental front-line gains into strategic advantages and sees no reason to halt this progress now, especially as it reaches its peak. Not even the threat of secondary sanctions against China and India—who seem resistant to U.S. pressure—will change this immediate military calculus for the rest of the summer. At least until October, Putin will want to continue fighting because he is winning.

2. Pragmatism and more talks

The talks could result in an agreement to hold more talks later, effectively locking in Russia’s gains with the arrival of winter, both militarily and literally freezing the front lines around October. By then, Putin might have captured the eastern cities of Pokrovsk, Kostyantynivka, and Kupiansk, establishing a strong position to get through the winter and regroup. Russia could then resume fighting in 2026 or use diplomacy to make its gains permanent.

Putin might also bring up the issue of Ukrainian elections—which were postponed due to the war and briefly discussed by Trump—to question Zelensky’s legitimacy or even push to replace him with a more pro-Russian candidate.

3. Ukraine somehow manages to endure the next two years

In this scenario, continued U.S. and European military aid helps Ukraine minimize losses on the front lines over the coming months, pushing Putin toward negotiations after another failure by his military. Pokrovsk might fall, and other eastern Ukrainian strongholds may be threatened, but Russia’s advance could slow again as it has in the past. The Kremlin might begin to feel the effects of sanctions and its overheated economy.

European powers have already drafted plans to deploy “guarantor forces” in Ukraine as part of security guarantees. Tens of thousands of NATO troops could be stationed around Kyiv and other major cities, offering logistical and intelligence support as Ukraine rebuilds, creating enough of a deterrent that Moscow may opt to leave the front lines as they are. This is the best-case scenario Ukraine can hope for.

4. Disaster for Ukraine and NATO

Putin could correctly perceive cracks in Western unity following a Trump summit that improves U.S.-Russia relations but leaves Ukraine to fend for itself. Europe might do what it can to support Kyiv, but without American backing, it wouldn’t be enough to shift the balance. Putin might see small gains in eastern Ukraine turning into a slow collapse of Ukrainian forces in the flat, open terrain between Donbas and the central cities of Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, and the capital.

Ukraine’s defenses could prove weak, and Kyiv’s manpower crisis could become a political disaster if Zelensky is forced to call for a broader mobilization. Kyiv’s security would once again be at risk. Putin’s forces push forward. European leaders might believe it’s better to fight Russia in Ukraine than later on EU soil. Yet in the end, they lack the political mandate to go to war over Ukrainian territory. Putin presses on. NATO fails to present a united response.

This is Europe’s nightmare—and the end of a sovereign Ukraine.

5. A repeat of the Soviet model in Afghanistan

Russia might continue to make strategic errors, sacrificing thousands of soldiers weekly for minimal gains, while sanctions undermine its alliance with China and revenue from India. The financial reserves of Moscow’s sovereign wealth fund could shrink, and its income could decline. Elite dissent in Moscow could grow due to the Kremlin’s rejection of diplomatic exits in favor of military persistence.

After the U.S. midterms, American focus may return to its traditional foreign policy clashes with Moscow and its backer, Beijing. In this scenario, the Kremlin could reach a point where its resistance to the Russian people’s economic hardship becomes toxic. Similar political miscalculations led to the ultimately fruitless Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. Such moments of unexpected Kremlin weakness have already appeared in the Ukraine war—like when Putin’s confidant, Yevgeny Prigozhin, staged a brief uprising toward Moscow.

Putin appears strong on the surface—until he suddenly doesn’t—and then he can be revealed as extremely weak. This has happened before, both with expansionist Soviet Russia and with Putin himself.

The problem with this scenario is that it remains the best-case hope of Western strategists, who can neither accept full NATO entry into the war to help Ukraine win, nor truly believe in Kyiv’s ability to repel Moscow militarily.

“None of these options are good for Ukraine. Only one of them results in Russia’s actual defeat as a military power and threat to European security. And none of them can come from a Trump-Putin meeting—unless Ukraine becomes part of any later deal,” CNN concludes in its analysis.